Archive for November 12th, 2009
The Chinese government had promised. The national growth would remain at 8% in 2009 despite the crisis. It is poised to succeed his bet. The figures, published yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the month of October, confirms the strong recovery of the economy.
Industrial production rose by 16.1% over the same period last year, against 13.9% in September. This is its biggest gain in a year and a half. Retail sales have, in turn, increased by 16.2% in the first ten months of the year, compared with an increase of 15.5% for the period January to September.
The trade balance has in turn recorded a balance of $ 24 billion or 11 billion more than the month before. This is an unexpected decline in imports by 6.4%, which largely explains this result.Exports, meanwhile, have slowed their little dip, down only 13.8% in October against a decline of 15.2% in September. These figures suggest now a recovery in foreign orders.
Know when to stop the infusion
Given all these positive signs, economists expect this to increase in China's GDP exceeds 8% for the full year 2009. But everyone is asking at the same time the question of a proper balancing of growth. "If you look at the figures for October, it seems that there is a trend in consumption that would further contribute to growth.And this should be confirmed in the fourth quarter, "says confidently, Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the NBS.
China has most of his return to his recovery plan to 450 billion euro, launched a year ago to invest heavily in infrastructure.
And if the fixed investment has also continued to increase, from 33.1% in the first ten months of the year, it mainly benefits large public works (+ 76.3%), while investment in private projects fell by 12.9%.
The question now is to know when to stop the infusion. Some leaders expressed their fear that a sudden withdrawal of credit facilities, which boosted the plant workshop of the world. Chinese banks have lent 1 100 billion since the beginning of the year.Even if they have paid half in October than in September, the economy can not do without this liquidity.
The OECD sees "strong signal" of recovery
"The Chinese economy is running at full speed