Archive for June, 2010
Tens of thousands of trade unionists yesterday converged toward the center of Rome at the invitation of the CGIL, the main federation of workers in Italy (5.5 million members).
Shouting "not only on our shoulders," they denounced the sacrifices imposed by the government of Silvio Berlusconi to reduce the public deficit from 5.3% to 3.9% next year and 2.7% of GDP 2012.
At a rally Piazza del Popolo, Guglielmo Epifani, Secretary General of the CGIL, reiterated that his organization was not opposed to a correction of the accounts of the state. "We reject this maneuver only made budget cuts without structural reforms or measures to support investment, particularly in public education and research," he told Le Figaro before the start of the event."Those who will pay for will mainly employees and the lowest incomes while wealth and annuities will not be affected."
Guglielmo Epifani also calls for a broad mobilization to invite the Parliament, which will begin consideration of the bill next week "to modify" cash advance till payday.
The CGIL has launched on June 25 a word of general strike of four hours in the private sector and the public 24 hours.
For its part, the Democratic Party (PD), the main opposition, has announced a rally against the plan "unfair" in Rome June 19 while magistrates, public sector doctors and world culture multiply protests.
The government plans to freeze wages and hiring in the civil service for two years and 10% reduction in the allocation of ministries and local authorities.No new taxes would be raised and the taxation of financial income would continue to benefit from a preferential rate, but a greater effort would be made against tax evasion.
For the Bank of Italy, the austerity plan could result in a reduction of O, 5% of GDP in 2011/2012 "as a result of compression of consumption and investment." Italy expects a growth of 1% this year and 1.5% in 2011.
Despite a decline in GDP since the second quarter of 2008, wages continued to rise this year at a faster pace (+3.6%) than in 2007 (+3.3%) as Figures released Thursday by the INSEE. One thing, however, tempered by the high level of inflation in this period, 2.8%, which surfaced in much of the improvement obtained by the employees. The average net wage rises in 2008 to 2069 euros net per month.
At that time, the labor market is however already the stigmata of the crisis. The structure of employment has changed, at the expense of the unskilled and temporary, in favor of executive employment and women. The average wage of workers benefiting from the decline in unskilled employment, and also recorded a significant increase resulting from indexing the minimum wage to inflation.In total, workers recorded the most favorable trends with an increase of 1.3% in constant euros.
Executives recorded the largest decline
While the average net salary of employees remains stable, that executives cash the largest decrease (0.7%) partly due to the importance of the variable component in wages. The sectors of finance and real estate are suffering most from the crisis in 2008, it is true after a sharp rise in wages in finance in 2007.
It is finally noted that while women's wages grew less than men (0.5% against 0.9%), thus widening the gaps in pay between the sexes, female employment is more resistant, particularly because of the strength of the service employment.
The "hole" becomes a chasm. The deficit in the general scheme of Social Security will reach 26.8 billion euros in 2010, having surpassed the 20 billion euros in 2009, according to a report by the Accounts Commission for Social Security (CCSS) is remit to the government on Wednesday said a source familiar with the matter told AFP. A figure to relate to a level of spending over 317 billion euros, all branches of the general scheme (health insurance, pensions, families, work accidents).
The prévisionde Commission, which will be corrected in September, is less than projected under the bill funding Social Security in September 2009. The official estimate then exceed the cap Pharaonic 30 billion deficit. An increase of over 7 billion euros to 30.6 billion.The figure of the CCSS is nevertheless an absolute record, while the social security deficit had doubled between 2008 (10.2 billion euros) and 2009 (20.3 billion).
In its report, the ACSH also believes the deficit of Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV), whose mission includes the funding of the minimum age at 4.3 billion euros in 2010. Added to that the social security system, the total deficit of the general scheme could reach 31.1 billion euros this year, said the source familiar with the matter.
The weight of the crisis
In retail, insurance concentrates the largest share of the social security deficit and what, for the second consecutive year, with an estimated deficit of 13.1 billion euros.Then follow the branches pension deficits (9.3 billion), family (3.8 billion) and accidents (0.6 billion), according to the report of the CCSS.
In its battle against public deficits, President Nicolas Sarkozy recently announced a battery of measures to reduce the deficit to 6% of GDP in 2011, after 8% in 2010. Among these measures, the government has influenced its growth target of health insurance costs, which is now fixed at 2.9% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012. "All measures necessary savings will be in place to comply strictly with the national healthcare expenditure (national goal of health insurance spending, ed), had then said the departments of Health and Budget in a joint statement.
Despite these initiatives, the economy weighed. The social security system is still shaken by the crisis.In 2009, the recession had hit hard the two main plates that fund the scheme: labor income (at half mast due to a decline in payroll) and income from capital (notably affected by the fall in transactions estate). And no hint of the HCMC upturn. In her report, she believes that 2010 will be continued in 2009. The "hole" of Social Security will continue to grow so brutal.
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The European Union has delivered Monday in her web of Penelope: the establishment of a "governance" to hold together the economic course of the crisis. But she still did not defined the content nor the timing, or even the actors. The sudden postponement of the appointment Sarkozy-Merkel in Berlin in addition to other mishaps for a company that struggled to take off. Finance ministers of Twenty-Seven, meeting in Luxembourg on Monday evening, still had to push the fires on their side.
On the positive side, the ministers of the euro area have sealed their agreement on the "ease" of 750 billion which should guarantee the eventual bailout of states on the brink of bankruptcy. They agreed to curb the gnawing pain of a single currency: Eurostat, the statistical arm of the EU, will be with genuine "investigative powers" to prevent a country to hide for years the severity of its fiscal situation.So much for the remedies.
EU sanctions
The advances are more confused in the forums, sometimes competing, responsible for prevention component: the Eurogroup, which brings together 16 ministers of the euro, the Ecofin, which brings together the 27 EU central bankers, and finally the new working group that puts themselves under the authority of the Chair, Herman Van Rompuy. The three find themselves in less than twenty-four hours in Luxembourg overnight pay day loans.
First floor of the mechanical preventive tightening fiscal discipline is acquired on the common principle. But its terms shall continue to oppose Germany, herald of orthodoxy in much of Europe. Berlin wants to impose on countries that refuse to toe the line of European sanctions, such as the deprivation of the right to vote, not found in the treaties.José Manuel Barroso J. "naive" the Merkel government's attitude. France, without rejecting the idea of German front, said she does not respond to the emergency "because it would take at least three years to change the texts," said one diplomat.
Things get complicated at the higher level, that of governance and coordination of economic policies. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are trying to get their act together to approach the next EU summit in Brussels nine days. Herman Van Rompuy will also make proposals.
The Chancellor visited in March to the idea of an "economic government" European defended by the Elysee.But rather than open a new institutional construction, Berlin thinks first to impose its partners "stability culture" as a model.
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The Sarkozy-Merkel meeting postponed for one week
Malta takes a very dim view of the opening of the French market paris online and does everything to slow the process. This is the poker from the first to pay the price. Indeed, the opening to competition of the French market of online poker is postponed for one month, until late June because of an obstruction of Malta under EU rules, said the Agency France Presse (AFP) the entourage of the Department of Budget and confirming information site Challenges.fr
"We can not publish the implementation decree (for poker online) before June 28 It postponed a month because we are forced Malta, "says one with services Françoise Baroin.
A French law "relating to the introduction of competition and industry regulation of gambling and online gambling" was promulgated on May 13, followed by a dozen decrees.This legislation relates to sports paris, the paris horse and poker.
The Regulatory Authority online games (Arjel) should issue next Tuesday fifteen licenses to operators of online games, especially in order to start the paris during the FIFA World Cup (June 11-July 11 ).
Problem European procedure
The government had sent there over a year to the European Commission's draft legislation on online gaming, then notified Brussels implementing decrees, said the Budget Ministry online pay day loans. "Member States (EU) had three months to make their comments and Malta has chosen to do May 27", ie the last moment. France is obliged to meet in Brussels and Malta before issuing his decree. Paris now has one month to respond.
Malta, already established on the market for online games, contests a provision of the French law requiring players to register with an approved operator. This is contrary to the EU principle of free movement of persons and property.
"There is no problem on the merits. It is simply a procedural problem in Europe, as it has been commented at Bercy, stating that the grant Arjel as planned on Tuesday for its amenities paris sports, horse and poker. For the latter, many traders will await publication of the decree in late June. Still, the situation is embarrassing for the operators. Bwin, Unibet and Unibet already offer online poker. And waiting for regulatory approval to regularize their situation.
After a few sessions of doubt, the Paris Bourse has picked up substantially. Encouraged by good news from the United States, the CAC 40 was indeed awarded 1.59% to close at 3557.34 points to finish in a volume of transactions expanded by about 4.5 billion euros.
Other major European markets have also hoisted the green flag.In Frankfurt, the Dax gained 1.23%, and London was awarded the Footsie 1.16%.
The markets were boosted by a salvo of indicators better than expected in Europe and the United States.
The Paris Bourse, which opened up substantially has continued to evolve in green, buoyed by an encouraging indicator for growth in the private sector in the euro area.
In the United States, on the eve of the announcement of monthly statistics of unemployment, investors focused their attention on "indicators from the employment market.
Positive signs
The firm ADP, which always reveals its figures a step ahead of the official statistics, said that the private sector in May had aligned his fourth consecutive month of net job creation (55 000).More good news, the number of jobs created in April was revised up significantly with 65,000 jobs, nearly double the previous estimate of ADP.
And, for analysts, the number of jobs created Department of Labor to be released Friday should be even higher because it also includes jobs in the public sector has massively hired for the decennial census. In recent days, signs of U.S. economic recovery are multiplying. The day before, real estate, which is closely watched by analysts had sent further signs of recovery.
In Paris, the mood swing advantage in priority areas identified as cyclical resource stocks and cars that were driving the increase, the image of Peugeot and Vallourec.
The oil found 70 dollars
Optimism returns on oil markets. On Thursday, oil prices have ended on a 4% rise to 74.55 dollars in New York, gaining 8% in two sessions. The $ 70 threshold was crossed on the rise Monday and picked up the rebound Wednesday. That day, Brent took $ 2.15 (3.09%) to 71.70 dollars, ending a run of nine consecutive sessions of declines.
"The market has received a good dose of optimism," said Phil Flynn of PFG Best Research. "It was time, prices had fallen by 87-65 dollars." For Ellis Eckland, an independent analyst, "it is a rebound in the wake of the stock markets. People are more optimistic about the fact that the euro will not collapse and less frightened about the economy. " Another factor supporting prices: the six-month extension of the moratorium on offshore oil drilling decided by Barack Obama."The United States derive a third of their crude production offshore drilling if we do drill more, this production may simply disappear", said Ellis Eckland.
But the week was also marked by a one-time relapse occurred below 70 dollars Tuesday. Investors, troubled by geopolitical tensions between the two Koreas, suffered a renewed concerns about the pace of global recovery.
If the courts now seem to settle in the range of 70-75 dollars, the volatility is always present. Especially as the U.S. Agency for Energy Information (EIA) announced that crude oil reserves rose 2.4 million barrels to 365.1 million, exceeding their year's level last at the same time.Economists on average had expected an increase of 200,000 barrels only.
Tuesday, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah al-Sabah, said he was "not yet" worried by the decline in crude prices. If no emergency meeting of OPEC is scheduled, the oraganisation plans to "call for more respect of production quotas.
Note that oil prices have tumbled more than 20% since the beginning of the month.
Base metals: purchases restart
Prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have started to increase last week on the basis of a wave of buying on the cheap. The increase was frankly started Thursday, following the easing of world stock markets after China denied its intention to reduce the share of its assets in euros.The euro strengthened against the dollar, making them more attractive purchases of raw materials with the U.S. currency.
Copper prices have soared to 7,043 dollars per tonne on Friday, a level last seen two weeks. The aluminum prices reached 2,086 dollars per tonne on Friday, their highest in two weeks. Lead, nickel and zinc gained respectively 0.6%, 1.8% and 3.4% payday loans.
However, caution remains the watchword. The price volatility is high as evidenced by the slowing of the rebound Friday after the publication of consumer spending by American households down in April after six consecutive months of increases. Overproduction of copper in Chile and increased reserves of aluminum could also disrupt markets.
Precious metals: the gold recovery
Fell from its pedestal last week, gold has recovered to historical levels last week in favor of a new wave of market stress in midweek. Alarmed by the risks in the euro area, investors have once again flocked to the safe haven, pushing prices up to U.S. $ 1218.47 on Thursday, not far from the record of U.S. $ 1249.40 May 14 On the London Bullion Market, an ounce of gold finished at 1207.50 dollars at auction Friday night, cons 1179.75 dollars the previous Friday.
And the prospects of rising oil prices are good for the yellow metal. According to the World Gold Council (BMC), consumption should be taken this year by the expansion of the jewelry in China and India.
The ounce of silver has followed the movement of gold, finishing at 18.53 dollars Friday, against 17.72 dollars last Friday.The platinum group metals have also returned to form more than the football World Cup in South Africa could lead to tensions on the country's electricity supply. A situation that could force the mining groups to reduce their production. The ounce of platinum finished at 1555 dollars per ounce of palladium finished at 471 dollars against 419 dollars a week earlier.
Corn and soybeans climbed in Chicago
The corn and soybean prices rose Thursday on the Chicago futures market, driven by the exchanges and oil. More broadly, the decline of the dollar against the euro makes U.S. production more attractive for export.A bushel of corn ends at $ 3.60 (1.12%) and soybeans to close an $ 9.38 per bushel (0.48%).
Cocoa prices have in turn touched a new high in London this week, boosted by the prospect of tight supplies and growing global demand. Thursday, cocoa for July delivery climbed to 2,451 pounds in London, prices not seen for 32 years, while the same term contract in New York reached 3018 dollars.
Sugar, for its part failed to continue its rebound from the previous week. On Liffe in London, a tonne of white sugar for August delivery was worth 475.80 pounds on Friday. On the NYBOT U.S. a pound of raw sugar for July delivery was worth 14.83 cents.
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