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The sessions will follow, but does not resemble the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 is up in the red on Monday, after climbing from 1.33% Monday, following good U.S. job figures released Friday. The index in Paris dropped by 1.25% to end 4007.26 points at closing and narrowly saves the threshold of 4000 points which had been lost during the day.

The other European financial centers retreating in unison. The Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange lost 1.09% to 7410.52 points and the London FTSE loose 0.57% to 5942.69 points.

S & P demoralizes markets

Poor market sentiment was caused by the decision of the rating agency Standard & Poor's on Monday lowered by two notches the rating of Greece, due to the increased likelihood of debt restructuring .It also warned it could further lower.

The rating of the country's long term debt is reduced to "B" cons "BB-", which meant that Greece became deeply into the category of unreliable borrowers. His short-term debt is rated for its part "C" cons "B" before, according to a news agency. These ratings remain on negative watch, meaning that the agency could decide quickly lower them again. S & P said its decision on the fact that governments in the euro area, which have agreed to postpone the due date for repayment of their loans to Greece, could be tempted to demand a similar effort on the part of private creditors the country.

After this announcement, the euro goes off in decline against the dollar, trading at 1.4287 dollars at the close of European markets.

Investor sentiment decline

On the macroeconomic front, Bank of France (BoF) provides a first estimate of growth of 0.5% in the second quarter of this year. BdF anticipates a 0.7% gross domestic product for the first quarter.

The business survey from the Bank of France reported a moderate increase in activity in industry in April.The business climate indicator in industry decreased by three points to 107 while in services it has dropped one point to 102.

Investor sentiment in the euro zone fell again in May, with an index standing at 10.9 after 14.2 in April and 17.1 in March, the monthly survey showed Monday from research firm Sentix .

Financial stocks unscrew

Financial stocks post steepest declines in the CAC 40, while the financial situation of Greece worried, so much so that a new EU aid is getting ready by 2012. AXA (-3.52% to 14.65 euros) is an outlier of the index. It is followed by BNP Paribas (-2.74% to 52.94 euros), Societe Generale (-2.62% to 42.18 euros), Credit Agricole (-2.58% to 10.75 euros) and Natixis (-2.30% to 3.81 euros).

Rumors of transfer and acquisition for Lafarge at GDF Suez

CNP Assurances: -3.60% to 14.73 euros

CNP Assurances reported Monday a net profit in the first quarter down 3.6% to 270 million euros, affected by a strong contraction in sales (-14.1%).

Lafarge: -1.31% to 45.07 euros

Lafarge and Anglo American want to sell 600 million pounds (680 million euros) in assets to their new joint British company, whose creation was announced last February, the Financial Times.

GDF Suez: -2.32% to 26.09 euros

GDF Suez wants to establish a renewable energy division and will consolidate its ten subsidiaries producing green energy in France, according to Les Echos.Also according to the economic daily, the group would be interested in the Italian Sorgenia, 52% owned by the holding of the CIR De Benedetti family and 45% by the Austrian Verbund.

Euler Hermes: -7.67% to 66.13 euros

The credit insurance group Euler Hermes has done in the first quarter 2011 net income rose 58.2% to 75.3 million euros thanks to the continued recovery of the global economy observed in 2010. Turnover increased 7.6% to 544.1 million euros.

Iliad (Free): -0.31% to 87.55 euros

Numericable could announce the launch of a mobile telephone within 40 euro on Wednesday as well and hunt on the land of the Free (Iliad). The mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) that rents the network Bouygues Telecom is the origin of the site larevolutiondumobile.com.The group has denied wanting to launch an unlimited mobile plan.

On the podium of the largest increases Cac 40 include Alcatel Lucent (3.80% to 4.36 euros), STMicroelectronics (1.31% to 8.12 euros) and Accor (0.90 to 29% , 12 euros).

Vilmorin: + 1.40% to 86.95 euros

Vilmorin is up over 8% of its consolidated revenues for the year which ends in late June, when he was counting on this to 7%. The group also announced an operating margin target of 13% throughout the year, against 10.3% in 2009-2010.

Technip: 1.26% to 71.79 euros

Technip won a contract worth approximately EUR 55 million from Statoil for the development of the Vigdis field NE, located in the Norwegian Sea.The contract includes the supply of pipes to be installed by mid-2012 in water depths of 220 to 310 meters.

Air France-KLM: -1.91% to 12.04 euros

The passenger traffic of Air France-KLM jumped 23.1% in April, an increase that is "not significant" compared to April 2010 during which the European sky was blocked by the eruption of an Icelandic volcano, said Monday the airline group. In the past month, Air France-KLM carried 6.36 million passengers (+28%).

The CAC 40 continues on the path of this increase jeudi.Les early trade on start up from 0.68% to 4095.42 points. As in Asia, Paris markets in turn react positively to the long-awaited announcement of the Fed on U.S. rates. The latter decided to pousuivre monetary policy accommodative for a prolonged period. Following these findings, Wall Street has ended sharply higher on Wednesday and the Nasdaq hit its highest level in ten years.

On other European markets, the upward trend is also valid. The London Stock Exchange has opened up 0.32% to 6087.6 points. For its part, the DAX index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange gained 0.62% to 7450.57 points.

But investors remain wary.Several key statistics are expected across the Atlantic on Thursday, beginning with the first estimate of first quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims (1430). The promises of sales in March are also expected (16 hours). The ball quarterly publications will also be given to: Procter & Gamble, Microsoft, Expedia and Colgate Palmolive are scheduled.

Side currency, the euro climbed sharply against the dollar since the Fed announcement. The single currency traded 1.4862 dollar. On oil markets, a barrel of light sweet crude for June delivery gained 61 cents to 113.37 dollars while that of Brent North Sea also June delivery increased 62 cents to 125.75 dollars.

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As for French companies, investors will also have enough to do:

Saffron: 3.80% to 24.99 euros (largest increase in the SBF 120)

The group announced on Thursday a rise in its quarterly revenue exceeding its target for the year, driven by activities of aerial and optronics, and reaffirmed its forecast for 2011 and its confidence for the following years.

Eramet: 0.43% to 270.45 euros

The mining group has achieved a turnover of 973 million euros in the first quarter, up 23%, thanks to increases of 35% nickel and 30% in alloys.Its operating income should be at least semi-equal to the corresponding period of 2010 excluding special items, after a surge in sales in the first quarter.

Gemalto: -0.37% to 34.93 euros

World number one smart card noted in the first quarter up 17% of its sales to 444 million euros a year, driven by its main activities. It confirms its outlook for fiscal 2011.

Technip: -2.65% to 74.81 euros

The specialist oil and gas equipment announced better than expected margins in the first quarter and confirmed its overall outlook for 2011. He always aims for this year a turnover of approximately 6,500 to 6.7 billion euros against 6.082 billion in 2010.

Sanofi-Aventis: +0.15% to 53.34 euros

The group released on Thursday quarterly earnings affected by competition from generics, but slightly better than expected and announced that its annual results would be reviewed during the semester. In late March, the turnover came out down 1.5% to 7.78 billion euros, generics that cost him 569 million euros in turnover over the first quarter of 2010.

Suez Environnement: 3.15% to 15.39 euros (largest increase in the ACC)

The group has published performance increase in the first quarter thanks to strong growth internationally, and has confirmed all its targets for the period 2011-2013.The turnover reached 3.514 billion euros in the first quarter, registering an increase of 14.3% (+13.5% at constant exchange rates), while EBITDA was $ 592 million, an increase of 28.6% (+25.6% at constant exchange rates).

Imerys: -0.32% to 52.50 euros

The group announced on Thursday a net improvement in its quarterly results, benefiting in particular the improvement of the construction market in France, said he expected an improvement in its performance throughout the year. Imerys has improved its operating margin by 1.9 points to 13.2% and increased its turnover by 13.7% at constant exchange rates to 882.7 million euros in the first quarter.

PPR: 1.94% to 120.75 euros

The group saw sales jump 26% in luxury in the first quarter, boosted by a dynamic Asian still as powerful and a brilliant performance in the United States.

Gameloft: 4.80% to 4.80 euros

The group announced a 20% growth of its turnover in the first quarter of 2011 to 39,500,000 euros. The company anticipates a year again growing at its turnover and profitability.

NextRadioTV: 0.32% to 15.70 euros

The media group has announced a turnover up 14% to 35 million euros, 15.7 million (+15%) for its flagship radio and 10.2 million for its TV division (+25%) . He announces "positive outlook for the first half of 2011."

Technicolor: -2.10% to 5.12 euros

The group announced on Thursday a rise of 15.4% of its turnover to 812 million euros in first quarter (+16.2% at constant exchange rates) and confirmed its targets 2011.

Always on the side of publications, after market, Saint-Gobain, Sechilienne-Sidec, Crit and Vinci will unveil their turnover in the first quarter.Compagnie des Alpes will unveil its second quarter revenues. The results of the first quarter of Sequana, Saft, and Bongrain are also expected.

Eurotunnel, Danone and Plastic Omnium will hold their general meetings respectively 10:15, 14:30 and 17 hours.

Ipsos confirms its objectives

Ingenico: -0.23% to 32.72 euros

The group raised its growth target for 2011. It is now targeting sales at constant scope and exchange rates, greater than or equal to 985 million euros, while it had announced a target located between 965 and 985 million euros.

Ipsos: 0.33% to 35.48 euros

The group confirmed its targets for 2011 after recording an increase of 6.2% of its turnover in the first quarter despite the continuing fall in the market for public education in Britain.

Klépierre: -0.39% to 27.04 euros

The group announced a slight increase in rents in the first quarter, thanks to its shopping centers, despite a slowdown in consumption in Europe.

Unibail-Rodamco: 0.97% to 156.56 euros

The group has appointed Christophe Cuvillier, former CEO of FNAC and Conforama, the Executive Group property as "General Manager Operations."He replaces Michel Dessolain, board member since 2007, appointed Director General of the strategy.

New field for Total

Total: 0.85% to 42.95 euros

The oil discovered in south-eastern Bolivia a major gas field that could initially produce up to 6.5 million m3 per day.

Bioalliance Pharma: 1.49% to 6.14 euros

The group has announced an expansion in Germany and Spain for its Phase II clinical trial of clonidine Lauriad in patients with cancer of the head and neck.

Fears over demand are installed

The threshold of $ 105 a barrel was saved just in New York. Only two sessions on Monday and Tuesday, a barrel of light sweet crude for May delivery lost nearly 6% to U.S. $ 106.25 while Brent North Sea abandoned 3.06 $ 120 , $ 92.

Investors have been troubled by a note of surprise the U.S. bank Goldman Sachs sent its clients and unveiled on the markets. It announced the closure of its positions to purchase a basket of commodities, including oil, saying that rising prices would lead to lower demand. His call to take profits was reinforced by the report of the IMF and the IEA. The first has already revised down its forecast by 0.2 percentage point growth in the U.S. economy for 2011 to 2.8%.As to the second, it confirms in its monthly report the existence of a "real risk that oil is now over $ 100 a barrel is not compatible with the pace of economic recovery." "If oil prices remain at these levels sustained for 110-113 dollars and beyond, it has a good chance of derailing the economic recovery," confirmed Ilczyszyn Rich, the manager of Lind-Waldock.

However, the second part of the week was marked by an abrupt reversal of the market despite the announcement of a further rise in crude inventories in the United States. Again, the combined action of the weak dollar and renewed tension in Libya, explains the movement. Moreover, the operators had their eyes on Nigeria, where presidential elections were held Saturday.Largest producer of crude oil in Africa, eighth largest exporter, the country was the scene of violence, often directed against oil installations in the Niger Delta. "This amounts to asking who is next. As a producer, should be monitored Nigeria: the political uncertainty is not a source of stability for the prices, "stated Rich Ilczysyn, Lind-Waldock.

Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of light sweet crude ended at 109.66 dollars, while London Brent went back to 123.53 dollars. Prudence, however, remained in order. "There is a reluctance on the part of brokers to have too many positions to purchase more than 120-125 dollars a barrel because they know what the IEA says is true beyond 100 dollars it raises questions.At more than 120-125 dollars it raises serious questions about the impact of oil prices on the economy, "warns Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank.

Precious metals

Gold continues to race ahead

The gold and silver, however, have not declined. The yellow metal has soared for the first time in its history, the threshold of 1480 to $ 1487.65 dollars an ounce Friday. The same day, silver touched the 42.84 dollars per ounce, a level not seen since February 1980.

The reasons for this rise does not change. There is first of all the renewed concern around European debts. The markets are marked by speculation about a possible restructuring of the Greek debt, while Moody's has once again deteriorated note of Ireland. Then the inflationary world.The latest example: China, which reported a rise in consumer prices of 5.4% in March. Inflation Up 0.5% in the U.S. and 2.7% in the eurozone. Finally, the accommodative policy of the U.S. central bank, which accentuates the phenomenon of inflation, contributes most to the decline of the dollar. But the weak dollar is also a factor in higher prices because it favors purchases. At all these factors added pressure on gold demand from China and India.

On the London Bullion Market, gold finished Friday at 1476.65 dollars at auction in the afternoon, and the gray metal closed at 42 fast cash now.67 dollars per ounce. The analysts at research firm GFMS now anticipate an ounce of gold exceeding $ 1,600 by the end of the year. The ounce of silver should his side reach 50 dollars.

The platinum metals have however suffered from the note from Goldman Sachs.On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, an ounce of platinum closed lower Friday at 1,787 dollars per ounce while palladium finished at 772 dollars.

Base Metals

Base metals neglected

On the London Metal Exchange, industrial metals have also been a tough week. Copied their movements with those of the oil markets, prices fell $ 7 on the first two sessions of the week, also penalized by the note from Goldman Sachs.

The red metal finished Friday at 9419 dollars, down from 2.86%, despite a likely reinforcement tensions on supply (mining giant Rio Tinto announced a fall of 14% of its production in the first quarter and expects down 21% over the year).

In the fall, copper has resulted in the lead (-5.11% for the week) and nickel (-3.04%).The latter also suffered from the announcement of a production surplus of 600,000 tonnes on the market after a note by the International Study Group on Nickel (INSG). Going against the tide, tin exploded his previous record by climbing to 33,600 dollars per tonne on Monday. But the increase should not continue because of the resumption of exports from Indonesia, world's biggest exporter, which had been disrupted by bad weather.

Overall, traders should remain cautious on the LME. China, world's largest consumer, has sent conflicting signals Friday announcing both a rise in industrial production (+14.4%) and inflation of 5.4% leaving consider a further strengthening of monetary policy.

Agricultural materials

Côte d'Ivoire still worried

Cocoa prices have begun to put together after losing nearly 10%.However, the arrest earlier this week of outgoing President Laurent Gbagbo and the announcement of an immediate resumption of exports would have led to lower prices. Because they are nearly 10% of global demand for cocoa which will be on the market the next few weeks. But the operators are already focused on the effect of political events. They fear in particular that the president Alassane Ouattara fails to pacify his country as he promised and restart the economy, including banks, the pillars of supply chain finance bean brown.In this context, the announcement of a 3.5% increase in demand by the European Cocoa Association has added to rising cours.Sur Liffe in London, a tonne of cocoa for July delivery finished to 1972 pounds (2.65%) while on the NYBOT-ICE U.S., the contract for the same period was worth 3248 dollars (8.67%).

Their sides, coffee prices went up significantly, driven by limited supply and consumption robust. In London, a tonne of Robusta for July delivery finished at 2463 dollars while in New York, the pound of Arabica for May delivery was trading at 287.75 cents in New York.

In contrast, good production prospects in Brazil and Thailand have tripped sugar prices in London to 697.40 pounds and 24.85 cents in New York.

Side grain on the Chicago Board of Trade, a bushel of corn for May delivery rose in Monday meeting new level of 7.8375 dollars before retreating to 7.42 dollars on Friday. The threshold of 7.50 should be maintained as looming pressures on supply due to a wet spring in the United States. A bushel of soybeans and a bushel of wheat for the same maturity respectively closed the week to 13.33 dollars and 7.4450 dollars.

Faced with the explosion in property prices Paris took 17.5% in 2010 according to the Chamber of Notaries – an elected official in Paris, proposes to amend the rules of homeownership, shaking the roots to the passage of earth French traditionally very attached to the stone.

Jean-Yves Mano, deputy PS Paris Mayor Bertrand Delanoe plans to establish in the capital, a kind of property fixed term whose main effect would be virtuous to put pressure on prices overheating. His idea is to convince developers to build housing on land that would remain the property of the City of Paris and would be leased for a period of 99 years (leasehold). The buyer purchasing only the frame, the prices should, according to the chosen logically be lower.Once the loan repaid, the purchaser would carry out with the then mayor of rent from 1500 to 2000 euros per month for leasing the land. In an interview in Paris-Today in France, Jean-Yves Mano said that the new long leases could affect future new developments planned in the 13th and 17th (Batignolles) districts, or about 2,000 homes.

Specify the nature of the lease

For now, the idea seems to appeal to developers. Marc Pigeon, president of the National Federation of Builders developers estimated that the initiative is to dig "because she can walk as is the case in other European countries." "We do not yet know the precise rules of the lease that the City Council may establish, including the issue of the renewal, it is still too early to tell," he says though.He said the effect will not be immediately noticeable especially on the volumes of housing construction. "120,000 new homes are built each year, we're not going to suddenly build 20,000 with long leases. He assured however that the measure will inevitably have an impact on prices.

One consequence that Peter does not consider whether Bazaille automatic. Notary in Lyon, he began by stating that Jean-Yves Mano invented nothing since the dissociation between buying a property and the land on which it is built, is made in the capital of Gaul over a century. "Much of the buildings of the 6th and 3rd district of Lyon – including the recent district of La Part-Dieu – were built on land belonging to the Hospices," he says. Upon expiration of the leases, civil hospitals are free to renew or not.And if the lease is not renewed, the owners must leave their homes to be destroyed.

Theoretical effect on prices

In theory, this sword of Damocles may put pressure on prices when the owner wants to sell his property. "However, there are agreements in Lyon Sudreau-Pradel, said the lawyer. They predict that in case of non-renewal of the lease and enter into a new contract with another developer for reconstruction, it must compensate the owners of homes that will destroy. " Compensation is calculated on the basis of market prices, and secures a little uncomfortable payday loan. The first leases "long term" were signed in 1860, some are expired, allowing notaries to note that "the price difference with buildings built on their own land is minimal," says Peter Bazaille.As developers, they do not really propose attractive prices.

For him, if the city of Paris decides to implement such a system, it will provide rules to prevent speculative. Buying an apartment with a long lease created a real property right, that is to say that the buyer can sell quite well with the idea of ​​making a capital gain, thus challenging the opposite effect to that intended. "We could for example provide a framework for the resale prices of these buildings, or establish the principle that beyond a certain limit, the owner pays a portion of its added value to the community," offers Peter Bazaille .

Change of mentality

Finally, it remains to accept the notion of temporary ownership to the French for whom the earth and stone are sacred."Unlike the English, we made our revolution," says the lawyer who says that the London scheme based on the payment of occupancy tax, is very close to what was happening in France under the old regime. "This is not because the French are very attached to property that can not fly, tempers Marc Pigeon, the idea of ​​buying even for a limited period may attract people who prefer not to remain renters. Especially if the lease is renewable. "

The long lease at 3 points

• The long lease, to construction, real estate lease is a long term of between 18 and 99 years.

• It is granted upon payment of a fee, by a "lessor" which remains the owner, or a "taker" who will not diminish the value of the property and building on the ground.The idea is to ensure mutual economic interest: the customer built cheaply because it does not have to buy the land. The landlord gets a property with its buildings to the deadline without having to compensate the contractor who built. Exception to the rule, the leases provide for Hospices Civils de Lyon at the end of the contract, land shall be delivered bare and buyers compensated

• The long-term lease of real property gives the tenant a right in rem may be mortgaged, sold or seized.

• The leasehold can not be extended automatically at the end of the lease.Renewal requires a new agreement.

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The unions had already brandished the threat late March. They have implemented, calling all employees hypermarket distribution group to strike on Saturday to protest against including salary increases for 2011, considered insufficient. The appeal, launched by the FGTA-FP, the majority union at Carrefour (with 40% representation), is supported by the CGT, CFDT and CGC.

In total, the 65,000 employees of the French distribution group are known not to work and show around the shops this Saturday, the day the traditional busy in hypermarkets. Early estimates labor, the movement is widely followed in more than 200 superstores supermarket group. Over thirty sites are completely blocked, workers blocking access to supermarkets.Even when they are not blocked, the strike rate range from 30% to 85% as estimated by Dejan Terglav, general secretary of the FO-FGTA reported in the AFP. When contacted, the management of Carrefour has not confirmed those numbers, always carrying an inventory of mobilization, and ensuring that all supermarkets were open.

From yesterday, union officials expected a high rate of mobilization of employees in a group unaccustomed to large-scale social movements. An impression confirmed Saturday morning. "It's a movement that looks quite memorable. It is widely followed, "said Franck Gaulin, Steward central CGT. Jean-Claude Mailly, secretary general of the Workers' Force (FOR), came to support the movement this morning on the website of Le Mans, on strike for 80%. "People want a redistribution within companies.When companies are unwilling to do that, there is a strike, "said union leader, also claims that" a device to make compulsory the transport allowance in all enterprises. "

Insufficient wage increase

While management offers its employees a 1% increase in wages to March 1 and another 1% increase on 1 October, union officials estimate that these increases do not cover inflation announced by 2%. "It does in fact represents only 1% over the year," says a leaflet distributed by the FGTA-FO.Even the promise of recovery to 10% (against 7% previously) discounts on purchases of stores, and the announcement of the reopening of negotiations next Wednesday, will not suffice to bring back the union leaders on their decision.

Moreover, the malaise is becoming stronger on the side of employees on the deteriorating conditions of employment and new working methods since the arrival at the head of the group of Swedish Lars Olofsson, in January 2009.

Opposition to the plans of division

While President Nicolas Sarkozy on Thursday expressed its willingness to link salaries to dividends, the unions could ask for more support for their speeches.For beyond wage increases claimed, employees believe that the demerger proposal by listing the subsidiary Dia hard discount and the 25% of Carrefour Property land would bring six billion euros to the two main shareholders, Bernard Arnault and Colony Capital (14% stake and 20% of voting rights between them).

In the words of Dejan Terglav, secretary general of the FGTA-FO, reported in Les Echos this Friday, the organization also wants the Mutual Fund Business (CIPF) 'vote against the division (during the next meeting June 21 di ed.) CIPF owns approximately 1.33% of the shares but the double voting rights "said the union leader. Bringing to nearly 4% the number of shareholders opposed the project, with the fund Knight Vinke (more than 1% of capital).But for now insufficient to meet a third of votes needed to derail the project.

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In fifty years, two times more dependent elderly. This is the perspective that traces the working group on "demographic and financial issues, set up by Roselyne Bachelot to prepare the reform of addiction. Projected that this group, led by Jean-Michel Charpin, study Tuesday afternoon, holding it in effect a "middle scenario" leading to rise from 1.15 million addicts in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2060 (being considered as dependent persons entitled to the allowance APA, according to current criteria for the award).

Enrollment growth would be 2% per annum by 2017-2020, then 1.1% per year until 2030 (period when the cohorts born in 1930 will reach the age of dependency), then 2% between 2030 and 2045 (the baby-boomers) and 0.6% per year thereafter.These figures are higher than the latest official forecast, prepared in 2005 by the Center for Strategic Analysis. "Three factors explain the discrepancy, details Roselyne Bachelot. First, the start of the APA faster than expected. Then, the latest forecast by INSEE, which increased the proposed number of seniors. "In half a century, France has 5.4 million over 85 years. "Finally, it was betting up to that every year of life expectancy gained would be a healthy year, says the Minister of Solidarity. It seems that this traditional view is rather trite and does not hold in recent years. "

This scenario, so far "predominant" is now considered "optimistic."However, the opposite idea (gains in life expectancy would result in full by a lengthening of the duration dependence) is not in the heart of the simulations of the working group, although it is mentioned in a "pessimistic scenario" payday loans. The main scenario is based on the assumption that the proportion of dependence-free life expectancy to 65 years in total life expectancy at age 65, will remain stable. Currently, life expectancy at age 65 is 22.5 years for women, 19.1 years without dependence (85%). It would increase to 27.6 years in 2060, including 23.4 years without dependence, 4.9 years gained healthy (85%). And, therefore, 0.8 year older in a state of dependency.For men, life expectancy at 65 years falling from 18.1 years currently, with 16.7 years without dependence (92%), of which 21.7 years to 23.6 years without dependence.

Evaluate the probabilities

"While some questioned the usefulness of new projections or accused the President of the Republic of catastrophism, nobody can say" everything is going very well, Madame la Marquise,''said Roselyne Bachelot. We have a scenario in which the political decision to meet. "The minister nevertheless admits:" No one can certify that these assumptions will be realized fifty years.Maybe we'll have a vaccine against Alzheimer's! But the horizon of political decision, it is ten years and, unfortunately, we are almost certain that there will be no vaccine by then. "

Work will continue over the coming weeks, especially to better assess the probability and consequences of extreme scenarios that lead to this point a very wide range, from 1.85 to 3.15 million addicts in 2060.

After two lean years, chemical production in France is recovering. Between price increases – about 5% – and the rebound volumes (+10.8%), the turnover of the sector in 2010 grew 14% to $ 77, 1 billion euros. First industry affected by the crisis, the Chemistry is also one of the first to emerge. French chemistry has benefited last year from "improving global economic conditions" and bounce "in the industry, especially with the end of destocking and the return of the application, said Olivier Homolle, President Union Chemical Industries (UIC).

Some sectors such as soaps, perfumes and cleaning products have benefited more than others, including organic chemistry, rather breathless last year.But the movement should continue at a slower pace of around 3% in 2011, provides for the UIC.

Back acquisitions

The recovery is also evident in terms of margins. "They benefited last year cost reductions generated by the severe crisis and back to rising raw materials," says Peter Gadrat, director of chemistry and metals within the consultancy Alcimed. Enough to allow chemical manufacturers to raise cash and to engage in acquisitions. After a series of acquisitions announced since October – activities resin Total Arkema for 550 million euros, Chinese Feixang Rhodia Chemicals ($ 489 million) – the movement is probably far from over.

"The chemical industry is still very fragmented.The approximately behemoths – BASF leads the game with a turnover of 63.8 billion euros represent little in a sector that weighed 1.87 trillion euros in 2009, "said Pierre Gadrat. Future operations should be fairly targeted medium. Because "chemists have money but not an urgent need for new growth."

Two strategic

The companies focus on two strategic axes. They seek to increase their presence in growth sectors such as food and health, the image of the American DuPont announced in December the acquisition of Danish Danisco for $ 6.3 billion. The industrial sector also intend to strengthen in emerging markets. "There are huge needs in basic chemistry in Asia, particularly in polymers," says Edward Croufer, director of global chemical with the firm Arthur D Little.This should change the mapping of the major players. Edward Croufer expects that by 2015, the world leader should return to Saudi Sabic, along with German BASF and India's Reliance.

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LE FIGARO – What are the economic consequences for Japan?

Jean-Pierre Petit – Contrary to what we believed in the early hours of the earthquake, the impact is probably greater than that of Kobe in 1995, which cost 10,000 billion yen, or 2.5% of GDP. The affected area this time, north-east, weighs 8% of GDP against 4% for Japanese Kobe, and it includes many production units and automotive electronics. But the most serious is the risk that nuclear has a direct impact on energy resources, since the nuclear provides 25% of national electricity consumption.This is the novel aspect of this tragedy is still not able consequences even if they tend to be exaggerated by the markets.

Could there be a rapid rebound in the economy?

It's terrible to say but disasters still have a stimulating effect in the short / medium term impact on the economy when the state starts rebuilding. Japan's GDP rose by 5% annualized rate during the three quarters that followed the disaster in Kobe. Provided that the nuclear situation eventually stabilized, it will be the same this time all the opposition has indicated it would follow the government's economic stimulus projects.In absolute terms, Japan has a debt problem, which represents 200% of its GDP, but this does not prevent him from borrowing in good condition because 95% of this debt is held by the Japanese no fax cash advances.

What are the consequences for the global economy?

A Japanese recession would not have much impact on the global economy. At its peak in the early 1990s, Japan accounted for 18% of global GDP in current dollars. Today, it represents only 9%. Japan – with U.S. – the least open of the major developed countries, it acts early in the production chain and there is a net exporter. A slowdown in its economy weighs little on final demand and global activity.Viewed differently, global growth amounted to 3.6% since 2000 and Japan is almost no contribution!

The succession of disasters threat does not resume?

The paradox is that the number of natural disasters is rising trend since the early 1950s, as they have been multiplied by 20 in fifty years, before breaking a bit since the early 2000s. At the same time, the average unit cost of natural disasters has remained stable, amounting to $ 240 million on average between 1950 and 2010. For the total cost of natural disasters (including the growing number), it has increased, but at a pace close to that of U.S. GDP (6% per year).In other words, the cost of disasters relative to GDP is stable world since 1900: the events are more frequent but the risks better managed and the impact remains low overall.

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The annual results published by Vivendi, one of the last CAC 40 groups to engage in exercise, are consistent with the general trend: in good order. If the results of group communication and media are in line with expectations, Jean-Bernard Levy, chief executive, said in the statement of the group, refer to "slight growth in profits in 2011" as well as maintaining a cash dividend at a level higher than 1.40 euro. In an interview with Les Echos this morning, the officer reiterated that the group also aims to buy out minority shareholders of SFR and Canal + France "if the conditions are reasonably priced."

In 2010, the group announced a net profit up 4.4% to 2.7 billion euros, a figure in line with analysts' expectations.And net income group share, that is to say, after deducting the portion that belongs to shareholders of subsidiaries whose third group does not hold the entire capital, settled him at 2.2 billion euros , against 830 million euros in 2009, an increase of 164.8%. EBIT is also in line with analysts' forecasts of 5.7 billion euros following an increase of 6.2%.

The turnover is slightly higher than expected it: up 6.4% to 28.9 billion euros against 28.6 expected on average by specialists. Vivendi said that the increase in sales was particularly supported by the release of new video game "Call of Duty." The group added that "all professions have achieved their objectives."

Vivendi adjusts its reserves

The group also reduced from 100 million euros, 450 million against 550 million previously, the provision recorded in its accounts under the partnership proceedings initiated against the United States. An adjustment is made after the decision of a federal court to exclude the compensation procedure of the group's shareholders who acquired their shares on the Paris Bourse. Vivendi had announced he would be able to make "a significant readjustment allowance" in its 2010 accounts as a result of this ruling.

And if the Renault spy case was based on a simple internal settling of scores? Having missed so far, this track is not ruled according to a source close to the investigation quoted by Le Parisien on Saturday.

She says an employee of Renault 'close' to Michel Balthazar, former head of the division "upstream projects and services" of the company and laid off in January with two other executives, Matthieu Tenenbaum Rochette and Bertrand, was the author of the famous anonymous letter sent in late August at the direction of Renault.

"In May this year, I saw Michael Balthazard negotiate a jar of wine, claiming that if Bob Bell took advantage of F1, also wanted to enjoy it and feed his bank account," says the author literally. Without the quote, it also aims Matthew Tenenbaum."During another conversation, he (Michel Balthazar, Ed) spoke of a young man (Matthew Tenenbaum, Ed) which quickly understood how it works to fill his bank account," he adds.

Renault has made "mistakes"

Recognizing not have "no evidence", the "Raven" was threatening the management of Renault. "Without checking action on your part, I would not hesitate in a few weeks to send the letter to the press." But according to RTL radio, which obtained one of the anonymous letters, the document aimed Michel Balthazard contains "no details or overwhelming potential to advance the investigation."

Anyway, the contents of this letter plot."Who else but a close security service may Renault whether audits will be conducted?" Asks Maitre Thibault de Montbrial, lawyer Matthew Tenenbaum.

The Central Directorate of Internal Intelligence (DCRI), responsible for investigating this matter, and would guide his research on the environment "very close" to Michel Balthazard. A dozen people are suspected by investigators.

For its part, Renault, however, convinced he has been betrayed by three executives who allegedly leaked confidential information, now acknowledges having made "mistakes." And if the automaker had wrongfully dismissed three executives on false accusations from a "raven" still an employee of the group? This would then no longer one but two crises that the automaker should be managed.

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