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The clouds are gathering on the French economy. The Bank of France has released its forecast on Wednesday morning for the fourth quarter: it expects zero growth over the period. It has not changed its latest estimate for the third quarter from 0.1% growth. "The projections show a continuation of the activity to maintain its current level," said she.

The monetary institution observes that the business climate has deteriorated slightly in October in the industry (-1 point 96) and in services (1 point 95). In industry, the factories do not increase the use of production capacity. In addition, the order books are somewhat empty. In services, "the outlook is geared towards a stable activity in the short term," analyzes the Bank of France us fast cash.

The monthly survey of the Bank of France confirmed the slowdown in growth by some economists. In view of the evidence advanced PMI, France would be even already in recession, say the economists at JPMorgan. Another U.S. institution, BofA Merrill Lynch, believes that France is expected to decline 0.3% of its activity in the fourth quarter compared to the previous one, and not resume growth until late 2012.

So, if the average of analysts' forecasts remains at 0.9% growth for the euro area in 2012, large banks have seen their shelves these days. On the downside. Exane BNP Paribas has drastically revised its analysis and expects zero growth next year to France, while in September it still expects growth of 1%.

However there will be a single new domestic or international flight anywhere in the world. "Qantas said its employees will be denied access to the company as of Monday morning.

Faced with a large section of its employees challenging the group's policy, management of the company has chosen the hard way to break the impasse. Calling itself the decision "incredible", Alan Joyce, Qantas's boss, said that "the aircraft will be grounded as long as necessary for the situation to an end," at a conference Press convened a hurry on Saturday. No way for him to accede to the request of trade unions, which he said, "Qantas would destroy the long term."

Retrenchment and redeployment in Asia

What technicians, ground staff and pilots claim, it is mainly wage increases.

The CAC 40 continues to change from red to green and from green to red since the opening. The benchmark index of the Paris oscillates around the equilibrium point at 3177 points, a few hours of the EU summit decisive for the future of the euro area. Differences persist between European leaders, diplomats quoted by AFP and could frepousser the signing of a major. The summit should help stabilize Greece in convincing the creditor banks to clear a portion of its debt (100 billion euros) to recapitalize the financial institutions that need it in return, and most importantly, to prevent contagion of the fire to Italy via an enhanced firewall in the euro area.

Knowing that the debt situation of Rome worries, even if the prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, seems to have succeeded in extremis to convince its ally the Northern League to accept a pension reform required by its European partners in exchange their solidarity. Thus, the Heads of State and Government of the euro area may call Wednesday the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue its purchases of bonds to support Italy and Spain, according to a draft of their summit conclusions which Germany said, however, disagree for now.

A meeting of finance ministers canceled

Sign of the nervousness that dominates in Brussels: a meeting of EU finance ministers considered a prelude to the Summit of Heads of State and Government of Europe has been canceled.The meeting, originally convened at the request of countries outside the euro area to increase coordination with the countries of the euro, was removed from the agenda because some details of the discussions were not yet finalized, said several sources.

Furthermore, doubts remain about the effectiveness of the EU. "The European plan should improve the situation, but it will be nearly enough to end the crisis," summarized Douglas Elliot, the pole of economic studies at Brookings Institution. Clearly, all eyes are now turned towards Brussels. Prime Minister François Fillon asked Tuesday the issues preventing a failure "could push the European continent to unknown lands."

On the macroeconomic front, in France, INSEE will publish its economic survey for the month of October in the morning.For its part, the euro appears to balance against the U.S. dollar, rising 0.08% to 1.3921 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

• The banking sector, with Societe Generale (0.29% to 19.1 euros), BNP Paribas (-0.4% to 30 paydayloans.66 euros) and Credit Agricole (-0.2% to 4.9 euros) is under the spotlight as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering taking part in a special investment vehicle that would be created by the European Financial Stability (EFSF). Although no decision has yet been made, officials said yesterday the euro area.

• PSA Peugeot Citroen (-2.4% to 16.45 euros) shows the largest decrease in the ACC after the revisions of its performance targets.The automaker, suffering from difficulties in the European market, also announced a plan for additional savings for 2012 of EUR 800 million which should have consequences for employment. The group also announced a new investment the order of 530 million euros in Brazil.

• Saint-Gobain (-2.2% to 32.2 euros) confirmed its 2011 objectives despite the deterioration in economic conditions which could lead to slower growth in the fourth quarter of the group.

• Ingenico (4.28% to 28.28 euros) estimated that the turmoil in the economy does not question its forecast for 2011, thanks to particularly strong sales growth in emerging and Europe, but the manufacturer of payment terminals has remained silent on the year 2012.

• Mersen (2.9% to 29 euros) which confirmed its 2011 objectives, supported by strong solar activity, and Asia, said he was careful, however, for 2012 due to economic climate remains uncertain.

• Lafuma (0.31% to 16 euros) confirmed its earnings targets for the year 2010-2011 following a growth of 1.7% of its turnover in respect of all of its financial year fiscal.

• JCDecaux (-0.34% to 19.22 euros) has renewed its contract to operate advertising space of the two airports of Lyon for a period of ten years."With more than 8 million passengers and 50 airlines serving 120 destinations direct airport Lyon Saint-Exupery Airport is the second French region's busiest," the group said in a statement.

• Danone (-0.1% to 47.9 euros) French giant Danone Agri-Food announced Wednesday the upcoming cancellation of 6.6 million of its own shares, representing 1.02% of its capital. These actions were originally intended to reward deserving employees through a stock option program, abandoned in October 2009.

• Air Liquide (-0.99% to 91.21 euros) on Wednesday released a turnover up 4.9% to 3.6 billion euros in the third quarter, a level of growth slowed due in an unfavorable comparison base and a slowdown in some markets.

Six weeks ago, Canal + gave a big kick in the PAF, announcing the surrender of the two Bolloré DTT channel Direct 8 Direct and Star. The next day, Jean-Marc Morandini, "Mr. Media" commented one of Europe experts with the likely impact of this acquisition on the programs of the chain. A question for Jean-Marc Morandini in the first place, since officiated in five years on Direct 8, where he now presents two programs: "Morandini!" A daily talk show for over an hour on the media , released at 18:45, and the issuance of news items "Presumed Innocent", which aired twice a month in prime time. "I do not know if I fear this change, because we represent a large portion of the hearing of Direct 8. This week, "Presumed Innocent" Live 8 was passed in second place of DTT at 20:45. It all depends on what Canal + will do just that chain.At the moment, I do not know, provides the facilitator. We'll talk when the time comes but for now I'm not too worried, unless they really want to make a very different line, with only series and sports for example. "

If "Presumed Innocent" to beat his record of the hearing Tuesday, with 3.3% market share, and 804,000 viewers on average (with a peak of 1.17 million), the hearings "Morandini," have had difficult to take off since September. Since September, 400,000 fans of the media follow him on average every end of the afternoon, against 700,000 at the best of the previous season. "We fumbled a little early because we had stayed on the trend of last year which was that every time we talk about reality TV, audiences explode. There was a real demand from viewers. This is not the case this year.People are perhaps a little tired, the characters are somewhat less charismatic, so we changed our tune after fifteen days. We have invited less oriented "people", with a little more background, "explains Jean-Marc Morandini. With the approach of a major electoral event and in a context of crisis, the facilitator discusses the need to provide more information than entertainment, "People want programming where we learn something and not just where people come to their show. "

"Very advanced negotiations"

Present since 2003 in Europe 1, Jean-Marc Morandini also inherited at the start of a new installment for its "Grand direct media." The program now starts 90 minutes earlier at 9:30 for an hour of news media. "It was a request on my part, I would even begin to comment at 9 o'clock live audiences.This is the best time to issue a media: early to react immediately to what happened in the evening and be the first to provide information that can be. " The first audience figures on this new box should be available in mid-November.

Jeanmarcmorandini.com creator of the site, the host is present on three media. Still owns the site, however, it is entered in "very advanced negotiations" with Bolloré Media for an equity stake in the site. The facilitator explained that he had several proposals for acquisitions, but said he had "never sought to sell it." The time seems appropriate, while jeanmarcmorandini.com, long time near monopoly in its field, is now closely followed by new entrants.Last May, the site Pure Media (formerly Ozap), with 1.02 million unique visitors came to tickle its approximately 1.25 million unique visitors per month.

And to justify his choice, he evokes the editorial freedom of the likely new shareholder. "The site needs to move to a higher stage. The interest for me is that Bolloré Media is in print. And the group will separate its channels. I go to them will be in an independent and not be bound to talk about television. " It is likely that the proximity to his current employer (up to the finalization of the sale of Live 8 on Canal +) also facilitates the transaction. The moderator believes that it should be signed in the next two days, and states that retain editorial control of the site.

"All the Buzz Media

After the sale "Flash" will there be shown the concept of selling "super flash"? Papercut, a Swedish chain of distribution of cultural products, offers on its website a unique experience to its customers. SpeedSale called, this feature leaves only four seconds to users to enter a promotional offer.A list of 16 products at bargain prices is presented to them once and only once! If the client does not validate any purchase, it is impossible to return to the list and a message appears: "You had a chance and you ruined, come back the next century." The user is then redirected to the page Home Papercut site.

"Sales 'flash', 'private sales' and other 'deals are limited in time' have always been part of the promotional techniques invented by retailers to increase the desirability of their offerings," noted experts LaSer, equal subsidiary group Galeries Lafayette and BNP Paribas Personal Finance specializes in marketing and customer relations."With the online business, these opportunities have continued to increase until the proposal Papercut extreme, proof that people are always looking for new shopping experiences and, for them, use n ' is never very far in the game "

This view is shared Olivier Mathiot, co-founder and marketing director PriceMinister. "The sales script 'flash' or other private sales makes shopping even more fun." He was convinced that the Internet boosts "impulse buying". "This media immediacy causes a sense of urgency that forces the user to decide very quickly. It recreates an environment conducive to the frenzy and excitement, "said Olivier Mathiot. PriceMinister also take account of this trend.

Bought by the Japanese Rakuten in June 2010, the site led by Pierre Kosciusko-Morizet draws its sales processes favored by the Japanese. It has well before mid-2012 to implement his concept of "shopping marathon", an event that lasts 30 hours and is conducted twice a year in June and December. "Ten merchants in the same sector, such as fashion or food, offering users a selection of products at bargain prices, and product category changes every hour," explains Olivier Mathiot. This visit a huge success. "The turnover of Rakuten in Japan grew by 150% during these periods," says co-founder of PriceMinister overnight pay day loans.

"Everyone wins"

"Everybody is up with this kind of promotional offers," says one at eBay, the specialist in online auctions."The customer is doing well and the merchant increases its visibility while achieving dramatic sales volumes in a timely manner." In order not to miss the boat, eBay launched in early October its "Daily Deals", inspired by the "daily deals, "such sales 'flash' already well proven in Britain and Germany. For one day, merchants offer discounts on products theme, depending on the season and current events. Like Papercut and his concept of 'speed dirty' in Sweden, eBay distills the game in the act of purchasing: "Auctions are the adrenaline and that's what consumers are looking for. The evidence, from 20 to 25% of people who come to our site looking for auction, "says eBay.

Of adrenaline to the frustration, there is a site that has taken Swedish Papercut cheerfully. "The frustration is part of the game and users know it.If the sale is concluded, the satisfaction is increased tenfold, "Marc Lolivier analysis, managing director of Fevad. However, the practice of selling 'flash' requires good organization. Beware of stock-outs that could raise the ire of consumers, while retailers would pay back customers who have already paid for their order. Here, no one would gain.

E-commerce: the bar crossed the 100,000 sites by 2012

Internet sales continue to take their game in a morose for household consumption in France. The turnover of e-commerce sites has reached 17.5 billion euros, up 20% from January to June, according to the Federation of e-commerce and distance selling (Fevad). Nearly 20,000 new commercial sites have been created, an increase of 28%, bringing to nearly 90,000 the number of active sites in France."The bar of 100,000 sites could be reached by 2012," said Fevad. In the first half, the areas of fashion clothing and Tourism signed the largest increases in turnover (+16%), far ahead of the high-tech products (8%) and sales professionals (+ 5%).

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From our correspondent in Beijing

It became the big hot topic on the Chinese Internet to the desktop as local leaders. The distress of Chinese SMEs in need of cash is in China proportions "hysterical", according to press reports in Hong Kong. To the point that the government has announced a package of measures to help them and calm the unrest.

The crisis of Chinese SMEs is symbolized by the incredible epidemic of bankruptcies in the city of Wenzhou, in the heart of the exporting province of Zhejiang. The Chinese press said Thursday that since the beginning of the year, more than 200 patrons had fled or hid after their coffers have dried up. Others have committed suicide. Some 20% of the 360,000 SMEs in the region have already had to close shop for lack of money.And the situation will get worse in January, when the Chinese New Year, traditionally the time when patrons enjoy a vacation to disappear without paying their employees. According to the New China News Agency, SMEs create around 80% of jobs in the country.

The State Council (Chinese government) has subsequently announced Tuesday a series of measures, financial and tax to help small and medium enterprises. The first is to facilitate access to credit. To do so, against the current of their policy, the authorities will allow the minimum reserve ratios "comparatively low" for local banks lending to SMEs, while this ratio was usually around 21% for large banks. Moreover, these small businesses can more easily borrow by issuing bonds. The other part is to exempt SMEs from a battery of taxes and charges.Banks are also prohibited from charging their services at prices "unreasonable."

"Informal Credit"

Wenzhou has become a symbol for it is the Chinese capital of the "informal credit". Private reserves by banks, which prefer to grant loans to large corporations, small businesses are strangled. They have no recourse but to turn to private security companies that have developed lending. The rates are incredibly high, ranging from 20% to over 100% … Some analysts believe that the share of informal loans may exceed 25% of total credit in the country. Credit Suisse has estimated that black market credit of 456 billion euros, with an increase of 50% per year.

Chief economist at the Development Research Centre of the State Council, Zhang Wenkui believes that the latest measures only bring temporary relief.And nothing will change until the banking sector do not be reformed, by offering different services to different types of customers. He has a vivid picture to describe the current situation: "It's like an irrigation system with water that would go to large trees and ignore all the shrubs." The problem is that in the short Beijing term can not open the floodgates too, failing to challenge its efforts to the credit crunch.

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The future common agricultural policy (CAP), presented Wednesday by the Romanian European Commissioner Ciolos on 2014-2020 proposes "a new compact between farmers and European society." With three challenges: food security, economic competitiveness and ecology together in preserving natural resources, and develop rural areas. Brussels each year spends about 45% of the total budget of the EU, mainly in the form of direct aid to farmers.

In the new project – budget of 435.5 billion euros – these are basic aid to boost growth and employment. "The average income of a farmer is still below 40% in other sectors," says one in Brussels. But they must be better targeted and more accurate.The Europe that "for years", has prompted farmers on the road "to productivity without constraint," should move towards "sustainable production practices," noted Ciolos.

Specifically, the aid will cover more than "active farmers", referring to the subsidies received by golf clubs or airports. They will also be progressively reduced from 150,000 euros per year per farm, while taking into account the number of jobs created, and will be capped at 300,000 euros. Dacian Ciolo wants to establish a single payment per hectare, to promote extensive agriculture and non-intensive, as is the case in France or Italy, where the aid is based on production levels.In fact, there are still large disparities between, for example, Greek or Italian farmers who receive some 400 euros per hectare, as against less than 100 for Latvian peasants no fax pay day loan.

Emergency reserve

The objective is to achieve by 2020 a rebalancing of budgets between states. The countries of Eastern Europe will see their share rise but France will continue to be the main beneficiary, receiving 7.6 billion euros a year, followed by Germany (5.1) and Spain.

To cope with crises and deregulation of markets, safety nets – private storage, mutual funds … – Brussels will be maintained and can tap into an emergency reserve of 500 million euros a year.

On the environmental side, 30% of farm payments will be conditional on good practices, namely set-aside 7% of the total area, minimum diversification three cultures.The Commission also proposes to double the research budget to promote innovation and support for young farmers under the age of 40 years, during the first five years of installation. It remains to convince the MEPs and the 27 Member States. The negotiations will be already difficult to reach an agreement by early 2013 at the latest. France has already expressed support for "the principle of greening" but believes that at the proposals from Brussels do not correspond to "the economic substance of operations." Same story with the FNSEA.

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The big aerospace contracts at arm's length support the French foreign trade. These two sectors have advanced temporarily to France to reduce its trade deficit by 32% to -4.967 billion euros, against -6.363 billion in July, according to Customs figures published on Friday.

"Deficit reduction is entirely due to the transport sector," stressed the customs in a statement. Remains that over the last twelve months, the gap between imports and exports widened to 66.8 billion euros, against 51.5 billion for 2010.

Exports reached on August 37.42 billion euros, up 2.9% at three months. Airbus sales have been strong high for the month of the year, thanks to the delivery of three Airbus A380 super jumbo guaranteed fast personal loans.In addition, France has delivered two satellites, one in China (112 million) and the other in the United States (130 million). The performance of aerospace and aeronautics, powered shots of large contracts, are very volatile from one month to another.

The rest of the industry has pretty well taken for export, Customs noted "particularly strong for industrial machinery and electrical equipment, industrial exports are fixed for the chemicals."

Imports in turn was driven by the manufacturing industry (chemicals, rubber, plastics, industrial machinery, etc.).. "Imports are also rising, particularly since the European Union (Ireland, Germany, UK and Netherlands), 'the Customs.

The Acting springboard to employment or siding? To find out, the Prism, employers' federation which includes 600 companies and 90% of the turnover of the sector, followed two years of 5000 interim recruited in January 2009. For 82% of them, the use of temporary was "to find a solution quickly", even if that allowing young people to gain work experience. It was just a "lifestyle choice" for 18% of the cohort.

Two years later, one in three still working as a temp. Less than one in five advanced employment center, 21% landed a CDI, CDD a 15%, 3% have returned to school and 2% left the labor market. During the period, "29% have experienced the CDI at least once," says the prism, and 38% had access to a CSD."In a period that was terrible, you get a good figure, says Arnaud de la Tour, president of Prism. This is proof that the interim is not a trap insecurity. "The young are doing well.

Nearly one out of two after two years in CDI or CDD, as against 23% still acting. "The acting is a means of integration into social and working life allowing them to move," Judge Arnold of the Tower.

Ensure the transition periods

Following this study, the Prism has established six key patterns of agency of all ages. 24% of them are "acting career" that are not seeking permanent but build their lives at the mercy missions.19% have "paths encountered" alternating tasks, periods of unemployment, sick leave, minimum social … The young, qualified and looking to get a firm foothold, make up the third block and is 17%.

Then there are the 16% who see in the interim how to ensure the transition periods between CDI, or as a means of conversion. The fifth group consists of people who want to keep their independence and get rich from others. These are often temporary "in the second half of career", graduates or students. Finally, 4% are foreigners and the interim use as "a process of professional integration."

Employment center provides 5,000 more unemployed in 2011

Employment center Tuesday revised its forecast of employment and unemployment. With growth of 1.7% in 2011, the economy should create 130,000 jobs this year, 33,900 more than in the first half.A shift is expected in 2012, where between 101,000 and 126,000 new jobs are anticipated. "The slowdown in job creation combined with the dynamism of the labor force should not be allowed to initiate a decline in unemployment," warns employment center. The number of unemployed is expected to increase this year of 5000 in category A (there is already at 32,000) and 78,000 in A, B and C (102 700). If growth remains at 1.7% in 2012, employment center predicts a decline of 5,000 unemployed and 12,000 A in A, B and C. If it drops to 1.4%, it will be an increase of 27,000 in A and 35 000 in A, B and C.

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"The temporary assignments are becoming shorter

Back to the wall, the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, had to consent, on Sunday during an extraordinary Council of Ministers, new sacrifices. He acknowledged that the prospects of the Greek economy is still terrible, well below expectations in any case, the troika formed by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF.

For 2011, the Greek government had already recognized that the deficit could not be reduced to the initial target of 7.6% of GDP: this will ultimately be 8.5%, a "hole" of 18.7 billion euros. For next year, the forecast is 6.8% or even 14.6 billion euros spent too (against a deficit of 6.5% planned in the plan concocted by his creditors).Difficult, indeed, to restore the country's finances when the recession is severe: 5.5% contraction in 2011 and another 2% expected next year.

30 000 employees laid off

In response, George Papandreou has put together a budget under the sign of austerity providing a saving of 6.6 billion euros in 2011 and 2012. This draft must be submitted to Parliament today.

Under pressure from the troika of envoys in Athens for four days, and on the eve of the Eurogroup, Luxembourg, the Greek government wants to show his voluntarism in order to obtain payment of an $ 8 billion of loans on the 110 billion allocated by the countries of the euro area and the IMF."As we make these decisions so difficult and that the Greek people made such great sacrifices, yes, the sixth installment is assured," said the Sunday newspaper To Vima the finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos free credit score online.

In particular, very unpopular decision in a country where the employment of public employees is guaranteed for life by the Constitution, the government decided to set the layoffs of 30,000 employees close to retirement by the end of the years. These employees "set aside" will be paid 60% of their wages, before being fired after one year. Social discontent swells accordingly. Public transport again observe a work stoppage this afternoon, before the strike of the entire civil service and state agencies and the general strike Wednesday 19 October.One in five employees in Greece is official.

German debate

While surveys conducted in the country reveal that two out of three Greeks want to stay in the euro area, the debate rebounded this weekend after the statements of one of the allies of Angela Merkel. "I think a solution, if we want Greece again become competitive in a stable manner is that it does so outside the euro area," said Alexander Dobrindt a radio, the general secretary of the CSU. Thursday, Philipp Rösler, the German Minister of Economy, will be in Athens for talks with his Greek counterparts.

The capital is always full of visitors. While George Papandreou received Saturday the Emir of Qatar's sovereign wealth fund Qatar Holdings has committed to invest $ 1 billion in operating a gold mine in Greece.