Archive for the 'opinions' Category
Wall Street is expected in the red pre-meeting Tuesday. Shortly before the opening of the NYSE, the index futures in the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S & P 500 declined by 0.21% at 10,517 points, from 0.05% to 1883 points and 0.03% to 1133 points.
The U.S. carriers would indeed choose to pocket a share of the gains made last week by caution before a salvo of indicators in the coming days. Especially since the main stock index hit a "low point" there is exactly one year, March 9, 2009. Since the S & P 500 has started the largest rally in history. In one year, the U.S. index has increased by almost 70%!
The next U.S. statistics are expected tomorrow with the traditional weekly report on unemployment. Weekly Market in the United States, will then be placed under the sign consumer.The two major economic indicators this week, published Friday, will be the sales details for the month of February and the preliminary estimate of consumer confidence faxless payday advance .
On the side of values, the U.S. manufacturer of electronic components, Texas Instruments has revised upward its earnings forecast for the first quarter. In a statement released after the close of the NYSE, the group said it now expects sales of between 3.07 and 3.19 billion dollars instead of 2.95 to 3 19 billion expected previously.
Also in the technology sector, Cisco Systems will announce today a new offer to speed internet connections.Analysts said the group could announce as Google, investments in new broadband network.
After the withdrawal of EADS and its U.S. partner Northrop's tanker contract to the Pentagon, whose first installment is only valued at 35 billion dollars, Boeing alone competing.
The fast food chain McDonald's should also facilitate the session after announcing yesterday a 4.8% increase in sales worldwide in February.
Economic conditions continued to improve in the United States in January-February, "although harsh snowstorms in early February have dampened activity in several regions," according to the Beige Book released Wednesday by the U.S. central bank (Fed).
The document states that the activity has increased in nine of the twelve regions (by cutting the Fed), but that "in most cases, these improvements were small.
The information provided by the Beige Book are very important because they serve as a reference to the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed scheduled for March 16, which will decide on changes in interest rates.
Regarding the labor market, for which the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, gave recently bleak outlook before Congress, the document notes that "the pace of layoffs has slowed in most regions, but that hiring plans of companies remain "soft in general."
As for expenditure on household consumption, traditional engine of growth of the country which is struggling to regain its role, they "grew slightly in many areas, but have been hampered in some by the snowfalls of early No teletrek payday advance . The metallurgist is the red lantern index in Paris.
PSA Peugeot Citroen (-1.97% to 21.87 euros, 2nd largest drop) announced Wednesday a net loss of 1.161 billion euros in 2009 against a net loss of 363 million a year ago, for a turnover 'sales down 10.9% to 48.417 billion euros.Natixis welcomes performance Faurecia and Gefco, but is very Decca automobile.
Sanofi Aventis (1.03% to 53.2 euros) recorded an adjusted net income of 7.8 billion euros in 2009 up 11%.
According to Le Monde, Renault (+0.27% to 33.4 euros) to consider building a plant near Algiers, which produce 50,000 vehicles annually for the local market.
Nexans (-0.86% to 55.32 euros) worldwide leader in the cable industry, has seen its annual profits collapse at 8 million euros, mainly due to restructuring and divestitures of businesses by group, and remains cautious for 2010.
EDF Energies Nouvelles (+4.82% at 35.85 euros) announced Tuesday a net annual increase of 39% and EBITDA up 47%.Gilbert Dupont went to purchase.
Apart from publications, the bank stand on the CAC 40, including Crédit Agricole, headlining, up 4.66%, to 10.85 euros. Axa rises of 4.13% and Societe Generale is 4.41%.
CAC Hors, Havas (6.71% to 3.08 euros, head of the SBF 120) on Tuesday posted a turnover decrease of 4.4% on an organic basis in Q4 2009, to 1441 million 'euros. Unrealized net budgets amounted to 1,270 million euros in 2009. The group has been identified by Goldman Sachs and Nomura.
Medica (+7.92% at 14.03 euros) announces that its IPO was a "success".The French and international institutional, meanwhile, have subscribed for about three times the size of the offer.
Theolia (6.25% to 3.23 euro) has published a turnover increased almost five in 2009 due to the resumption of sales of wind farms by the group.
Ubisoft (-1.72% to 9.66 euros) said Tuesday night "expects to return to profitable growth and a cash from operating activities positive" for the year 2010-11.
Vinci (+1.17% at 38.43 euros) on Tuesday announced acquistion of 89 contracts for parking company Interpark the United States through its U.S. subsidiary LAZ Parking.
Vilmorin (+1.29% at 79.86 euros) issued a turnover up 2.7% in the first half of 2009-2010 and has announced a joint venture in wheat seed in Argentina.
We have experienced "a crisis of globalization". Inaugurating the 40th World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, Nicolas Sarkozy has led the charge against "financial capitalism" that caused the crisis that shook the world for over a year. Then it was the first time a French president opened the show, Nicolas Sarkozy has criticized the "distortion of capitalism, calling for a establishing a" common morality "to avoid relapse.
He also returned on the role of banks, lending its support to the banking reform and Barack Obama reminding bankers their jobs. "What is the job of the banker?" He asked. "This is not to speculate, but to analyze the risk of credit to finance the development of the economy."If the crisis occurred, "because bankers did more than their job," he said.
In terms of currency, he reiterated the commitment to reform the international monetary system, criticizing the "currency manipulation" personal business card . Citing unnamed Chinese yuan, the French President has condemned these currencies undervalued to prevent any fair world trade. In 2011, when it will chair the G7 and G20, "the France include on the agenda the reform of the monetary system", he again hammered.
Welcoming the decisions of the G20 regulations on bonuses, tax havens, Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France will lead by example and apply the new rules, including Prudential, decided at international level.
On a more general "indecent behavior will not be accepted by public opinion and that no country in the world," he said, castigating the salaries unrelated to the merits. "When you win every time, this is not a market economy." However, he added, "that creates jobs, wealth, many wins, I do not think it's shocking" .
The message is clear: "It's a test, as we realize many in our restaurants and we do not communicate on the tests. This is hardly the teams in the chain of fastfood confirm the information already given by the press. It must be said that full debate on national identity, Quick fears may be amalgams and passionate reactions. The chain of fast food tested so discreetly, since November 30, sale of hamburger meat halal certificates in support-eight of its 350 French restaurants. The market is booming in France, carried by a growth rate of over 10%. Five million French regularly consume these products, and turnover of the sector reached four billion euros in 2009, well ahead of the "organic" and its 2.6 billion results.
Eight restaurants tests
The experiment should last a few months, six by the daily Le Parisien, and on fast-food Argenteuil and Garges-les-Gonesse in the Val d'Oise, Yvelines Buchelay in Marseille, Toulouse, Villeurbanne in Roubaix and the Rhone.
The question of extending the dissemination of these new products to other restaurants in the Hexagon will decide only after the test "if the commercial interest of the offer and its technical feasibility is confirmed" says Quick. The use of halal meat and non-halal in the same kitchens that require good logistics. Quick would be the first major chain to enter the niche. McDonald's, the number 1 burger, confirmed that he had not yet put in place similar project.
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Last year at the same time, the French automobile factories were preparing to enter into a long hibernation. Most sites of PSA Peugeot Citroen and Renault have lowered the curtain for a month between December and early January. This year, thanks to scrap premiums introduced in Europe, the activity is markedly increased compared to the end of 2008 disaster.
The contrast is particularly clear in PSA, although the production levels of 2007 are still far away. Overall, the French manufacturer's sites will close down between Christmas and New Year's Day for the traditional week of vacation. The group enjoys the success of new models like the Peugeot 3008 or 206 + products in France. Only the plant in Rennes, specializes in upscale, undergo three days of partial unemployment in December.In total, the production of PSA increase of 33.6% in the fourth quarter 2009 over fourth quarter 2008, but remain in decline of 10.2% over the same period in 2007.
Renault also later, production was resumed. The group includes the diamond increased by 50% worldwide in the last quarter compared to 2008. But as the activity of plants was reduced by 45% this time last year, the manufacturer has not regained its pace of two years ago.
Partial unemployment in 2010
If the situation returned to normal on most sites the French Diamond, Douai and Sandouville turn even slow this season. The plant Sandouville near Le Havre, close to the total one week in early December, then to three weeks between December 19 and January 8.After discontinuation of the Vel Satis, it assembles more than the Laguna and Espace, penalized by the penalty green.
He has sold only 30 000 Laguna in France in the first ten months of the year (- 32%) and Area 7 100 (- 27%). Employees are worried, because on this site, where 1 300 jobs were eliminated recently, the assembly of a new model, a utility vehicle, which will begin "in the first half of 2013," said Patrick Pelata Friday, the CEO of Renault, and not, as previously announced, in 2012. Other affected site, Douai, in the North, which makes the Megane Scenic MPV. It will stop more than three weeks from December 17 to January 11.
For 2010, Renault do not expect a return to normal.The manufacturer provides on average 45 days of partial unemployment in its French factories, against 50 to 60 days in 2009, said Friday the CGT, relying on information management. The only consolation, according to an internal agreement, employees of Renault partial unemployment has reached 100% of their salary this year.
This caution is linked to cessation of car scrapping or reducing them next year. The sales may still decline by 6 to 8% in Western Europe in 2010 after an expected decline of 5% in 2009, according to rating agency Fitch Ratings.
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U.S. traders are hoping that this Friday will be "black." Black Friday is the nickname given to the Friday following the Thanksgiving holiday would. This weekend three days in the United States marks the beginning of the season's shopping season. Last year, 172 million Americans had flocked to the malls during the seventy-two hours after the feast of Thanksgiving. The profession wants them to be as many this year, despite higher unemployment for twenty-six and a credit crunch.
The leading retailer for low prices, Wal-Mart opens a large number of its stores 24 hours of 24 on this occasion. Its rival Target is ready to welcome the hordes of customers at 5 am. Just as Best Buy, the number one electronics distribution. Kmart opened as early as Thursday, Thanksgiving Day.All these giants know that this year more than ever the buyers are looking for money sacrificed. Hence the importance of bringing many people into their stores to offset the lower margins.
Important factor: the weather, with a rather mild weather throughout the year, they will be favorable. But according to surveys, 93% of Americans intend to spend "less" or at most "same" as last year. In addition, 80% say they'd prefer to pay in cash. If consumers keep their resolutions and resist the temptation to use their credit cards, merchants' earnings will be significantly limited.
40% of total annual
Last year, while the financial crisis precipitated a collapse of activity, the mad shopping Thanksgiving had still spent an average of 372.57 dollars per person.Was 7.2% higher than in 2007.
But the season is long. A good weekend of Thanksgiving does not necessarily translate into strong sales until Christmas. We saw him in 2008 for the first time in over a generation, Americans have finally spent less than last year. This decline of 3.4% of purchases had traumatized the profession. From late November to late December, the department stores carry up to 40% of their annual turnover. While their association anticipates a further decline in sales in the 2009 season, but of lesser magnitude. The marketing channels such as Macy's and Nordstrom noted for example the collapse of the morale of Americans from October to November. But they also know that the reputation of Black Friday is overrated. The days of greatest influx of buyers are usually on the weekends before Christmas.The Americans, by calculation or by lack of preparation, expect more and more the last minute to buy gifts.
Undermined repeatedly on the effectiveness of measures to support employment developed by the government since the crisis began, Laurent Wauquiez has made a point Tuesday to step unpublished figures in support on the all the devices. "1.5 million people have benefited from various measures implemented since the beginning of the crisis," said Secretary of State for Employment. This does not mean that we have saved 1.5 million jobs, but that it helped or supported 1.5 million people. We are well beyond the goals we set ourselves. "
319 000 employees in total have benefited in the second quarter (against 157 000 at first) device for partial unemployment to better compensate for time not worked (up to 90% of net salary) and, in theory, use this time for training."It is a cultural revolution that operate upstream of redundancies in our country and avoid unemployment during the crossing of the crisis," stated Laurent Wauquiez, however, unable to say how many employees actually receive training to "adapt our productive "and" permit to rebound in the post-crisis.
No crisis of recruitment in the TPE
650 000 hires have been "supported" – that is to say, created or saved – since early February with the device "zero load" which is to exempt from social security contributions while recruitment at the minimum wage. This figure includes the windfall, that is to say that the hiring would have occurred anyway, helps or not. "The objective was to support 700 000 hires in 2009, further noted the Secretary of State.We should get to make as many hires in normal years, avoiding a crisis of recruitment in companies with fewer than 10 employees. "
Another point: 404 000 assisted contracts – subsidized by the state – have been prescribed since the start of the year: 326 000 in the commercial sector (87% of target 2 009) and 78 000 in the non-profit sector ( 78% of target). 125 000 retrenched (an increase in the number of beneficiaries over 500% since 2008) have also benefited from reclassification of a device that provides personalized coaching strengthened and enhanced unemployment compensation.
Its contracts alternately falling from 20% in early 2009 "has been halted" because the emergency plan implemented in the spring. The delay would be well more than 5%."There is even an improvement in the fall compared to last year," said Secretary of State for Employment, for which the government "has managed to save the youth employment because no return ' has not been, as expected, apocalyptic ".
"Confusion about the effects of recovery plan
The Chinese government had promised. The national growth would remain at 8% in 2009 despite the crisis. It is poised to succeed his bet. The figures, published yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the month of October, confirms the strong recovery of the economy.
Industrial production rose by 16.1% over the same period last year, against 13.9% in September. This is its biggest gain in a year and a half. Retail sales have, in turn, increased by 16.2% in the first ten months of the year, compared with an increase of 15.5% for the period January to September.
The trade balance has in turn recorded a balance of $ 24 billion or 11 billion more than the month before. This is an unexpected decline in imports by 6.4%, which largely explains this result.Exports, meanwhile, have slowed their little dip, down only 13.8% in October against a decline of 15.2% in September. These figures suggest now a recovery in foreign orders.
Know when to stop the infusion
Given all these positive signs, economists expect this to increase in China's GDP exceeds 8% for the full year 2009. But everyone is asking at the same time the question of a proper balancing of growth. "If you look at the figures for October, it seems that there is a trend in consumption that would further contribute to growth.And this should be confirmed in the fourth quarter, "says confidently, Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the NBS.
China has most of his return to his recovery plan to 450 billion euro, launched a year ago to invest heavily in infrastructure.
And if the fixed investment has also continued to increase, from 33.1% in the first ten months of the year, it mainly benefits large public works (+ 76.3%), while investment in private projects fell by 12.9%.
The question now is to know when to stop the infusion. Some leaders expressed their fear that a sudden withdrawal of credit facilities, which boosted the plant workshop of the world. Chinese banks have lent 1 100 billion since the beginning of the year.Even if they have paid half in October than in September, the economy can not do without this liquidity.
The OECD sees "strong signal" of recovery
"The Chinese economy is running at full speed
The Markit monthly survey, conducted among purchasing managers in the euro area shows a manufacturing PMI up for the month of October to 50.7 points, 49.3 points against the previous month. The final result is in line with analysts' expectations, remaining identical to the first published estimate there are about ten days.
The threshold of 50 points represents growth in activity. The crossing of the barrier and indicates a departure from the area of contraction in activity, which had not been the case for nearly seventeen months, in April 2008.
Larger rebound in France for nine years
If this rebound in manufacturing activity is undeniable at European level, important differences remain between countries in the area. France is the current head increases with a PMI of 55.6 points (2.6 points a month)."The French manufacturers reported another strong acceleration of output growth, performance displaying significantly higher than their European counterparts. The France and recorded a fourth consecutive monthly increase in manufacturing output, the strongest since a little over nine years. "
The index of new orders for its highest recorded for twenty-six months in the euro area, 53.7 against 52.5 points in September.
"The business conditions in the euro area manufacturing sector has improved for the first time since May of last year, driven by accelerating growth in output, new orders and slower job losses, "said Chris Williamson of Markit.