Archive for the 'opinions' Category
While many companies publish their results on Wednesday, so good for Vivendi. The group of telecommunications and media has indeed released the results broadly in line with market expectations for the first half and confirmed its outlook for 2011.
On the occasion of the publication, the Chief Executive Jean-Bernard Levy said he "confirms the outlook annual adjusted net income in excess of 3 billion euros" against 2.69 billion euros in 2010, which will increase the dividend per share. The businessman says he is confident because of "operational indicators on the rise, despite a financial and economic disruption."
In the first six months of the year, the group has doubled its net profit after minority interests of 2.6 billion euros with a net gain of $ 1.2 billion related to the settlement of a dispute in Poland.Adjusted net income shows him up by 20.2% to 1.83 billion euros. As for the EBITA (operating income, net of amortization of goodwill), it stood at 3.36 billion euros, up 4.6% at constant exchange rates free online credit report. Group sales reached 14.25 billion, up 2.4%. The market on average expected a turnover of 14.24 billion euros, an EBIT of 3.31 billion and adjusted net income of 1.73 billion, according to estimates by seven analysts quoted by Reuters.
For businesses, the group's results were supported by the performance of Activision Blizzard and GVT. The developer and publisher of French-American game has achieved an operating profit of 833 million, up 34.4%.Over the past twelve months, the portfolio means of Canal + France recorded a net growth of 96,000 subscriptions.
Asked about the proposed IPO of 20% of Canal + agreed by the other shareholder of the group, Lagardère, and rejected the first time in March due to the nervousness of the markets after the earthquake in Japan, the CEO of Vivendi, Jean-Bernard Levy, kicked into touch. "As we all know the ball is in their court," he said. "We expect the recovery Lagardère decides whether or not what is now the right according to our agreements.
The president of the U.S. central bank (Fed) Ben Bernanke has a surprise in Jackson Hole, in the northwest United States. Instead of announcing new measures to support the U.S. economy, as expected by the markets, the Fed chairman on Friday merely noted that the issue will be discussed at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the institution, scheduled Sept. 20. While stressing that "to weigh the pros and cons" of such a decision, the next meeting will be extended by one day. Suffice to say that a consensus on whether to implement any new measures to support the U.S. economy is far from certain …
It is precisely here that the speech of the day was to shed light.Investors hoped a higher profile, particularly on the implementation or not of a third program of monetary easing (or quantitative easing EQ3), after two other applications since 2008.
Ben Bernanke returns the ball in the political
"The Fed has a range of instruments to provide economic stimulus," said Ben Bernanke, however, supported. Insufficient to convince. For the other hand, the Fed chairman said that U.S. politicians had more room for growth, calling for fiscal stimulus. A sentence which leaves in doubt the ability or willingness-to-the Fed to reignite growth overseas.
"The Fed will certainly do its utmost to help restore growth rates and employment rates in an environment of price stability.However, most of the economic policy measures to support the long-term growth is a spring outside the central bank, "said Ben Bernanke.
The Fed chairman has confirmed rely on weak economic growth in the short term, after the Fed revised its growth goals of the U payday loans with no fax.S. economy, but did not specify the extent of this reduction.While recognizing that the crisis is more difficult than expected a few months ago, Ben Bernanke refuses to show alarming: he predicts that U.S. GDP "should improve" the second half and that inflation will gradually subside, and return to less than 2%.
He said he was also confident "in the fact that [his] colleagues in Europe have completely aware of what is at stake in the difficult problems they face today and that over time it will take all necessary measures and appropriate to address them fully and effectively. "
Deception temporary markets
Initially, this lack of concrete measures to try to revive an economy whose recovery is "much less robust than expected" in the words of Ben Bernanke, has dampened market expectations, suspended for two days this intervention .Sign of these expectations, the U.S. indices, already feverish, have widened their losses immediately after the announcement of the postponement within a month of discussions at the Fed on possible support measures. Similarly, in Paris the CAC 40 index plunged more than 3%.
But an hour after the intervention, investors rallied. The index in Paris reduced its losses, while on Wall Street, the Dow returned to the same balance. The markets have indeed put their disappointment. If the hope of a decision of intervention by the Fed was huge, the probability that a major action plan to be presented today was very thin, many commentators had warned in recent days.
Wednesday afternoon, France is officially under the seal of "under budget". Unofficially, it is the rigor that is installed. The Greek crisis of July and the reaction of the markets in August precipitated decisions. Without waiting for the draft budget law for 2012 presented in September, the Hexagon has taken the lead in the face of nervous markets, which scan the microscope evolution curves finances.
After speaking with the social partners, having examined the proposals of the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, and his colleague of Economy, Baroin, and after a final meeting Wednesday with arbitration the head of state, Francois Fillon will detail the efforts needed for France to respect its commitments.
Paris has in fact promised to bring its public deficit of 5.7% of GDP this year to 4.6% next year and 3% in 2013.Objectives "soft," insists the Prime Minister. And have become even more complicated to keep that growth, which has a breathing hole world in recent months, could not keep its promises. First equation to solve for the executive, what new growth assumption adopted for next year? Currently set at 2.25%, it could be lowered around 2% but the final decision will be refereed by Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday.
Whatever the figure used is a real austerity to be announced in the wake. The principle consists in an "effort equitably distributed among the wealthy households and the less affluent, but also between large companies and small companies," says Is there at Bercy.According to the Social Partners to Fillon who spoke Monday night, the government prepares to announce 3 to 4 billion in savings for 2011 – an order of magnitude as the Department's budget did not confirm Tuesday – and about ten billion 2012.
Precautionary reserves
This effort will break down between cuts on spending and tax measures. Regarding the latter aspect, the government does not lack ideas.Changing the tax exemption of overtime, tax on higher income, higher social package for businesses, real decrease in certain benefits … "In our sorrow, we have the advantage of having an incredible addition to spending, wealthy in some cases, "explained Baroin, mid-August, citing a total of 75 billion euros of tax loopholes and $ 45 billion social niches.
On the expenditure side, Bercy asked departments to provide an extra effort this year. The reason: the frigate affair of Taiwan, which requires the state to pay 460 million euros.To avoid this expenditure is widening the gap, saving the same amount will be made.
More precisely, the departments may not use funds they have traditionally used to spend at year end by drawing on reserves of precaution put in place earlier this year. Defense will be particularly drawn upon.
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Wall Street opens again in the red Friday. The NYSE is not spared by the new storm that struck the European exchanges, which has already passed on the stock exchanges in Asia this morning. A few minutes after the start of trading, the Dow Jones fell by 0.81% to 10,901.20 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 by 0.75% to 1132.08 points and the Nasdaq Composite 0.76% 2362.48 points.
Yesterday, as elsewhere, the New York Stock Exchange closed down a massive, affected by disappointing indicators released during the meeting confirming the poor performance of the U.S. economy. Moreover, operators, already worried by the economy of the euro area, were cooled by the large loan dollars awarded by the European Central Bank (ECB) to a bank in Europe, whose identity has not been revealed.This action has reinforced doubts about the ability of banks to refinance the region. The euro also declined against the dollar and is trading around 1.4290 dollars against 1.4319 on Thursday.
Finally, Morgan Stanley confirmed the fears of a global economic slowdown by scaling back its growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012. The bank also said the United States and Europe were "dangerously close to recession."
Evidence that the operators' confidence is at its lowest, gold, a safe haven par excellence, is powered from yesterday to new heights. On Friday, an ounce reached a new record in 1864 dollars after jumping up to 1867.30 dollars in the morning.For its part, a barrel of U.S. light crude oil, which fell 6% yesterday, lost another 65 cents to 81.73 dollars at the opening while Brent gives 62 cents to 106.37 dollars.
Values of the day
On the corporate side, Hewlett-Packard tumbles to 18.74% to 23.98 dollars. The group published its results on Thursday lowered its annual forecast for the third consecutive time. It now expects an annual turnover of between 127.2 and 127.6 billion dollars, against a previous estimate of between 129 and 130 billion. The group, which has made a takeover offer for the British publisher of software Autonomy, has also announced plans to dispose of its business in personal computers.Another major surprise: HP goes out of business in the mobile, arresting the development of tablets and smartphones.
Autodesk (1.09% to 26.80 dollars) has reported a 6% increase in revenues in the second quarter and a net profit better than expected at 71.2 million euros, or 30 cents per share.
Gap (5.03% to 16.30 dollars) on Thursday posted a quarterly profit above analysts' expectations despite lower sales to a number of store. Net income for the group totaled $ 189 million (131.8 million), or 35 cents a share, against $ 234 million, or 36 cents per share a year earlier.
Bank of America (-1.07% to 6.94 dollars) will remove 3500 positions during the quarter, according to an internal document cited by Reuters.
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Wall Street was unable to string together a fourth consecutive session. The New York Stock Exchange opened down on Tuesday, the Dow Jones lost 0.65% to 11,408.05 points and the Nasdaq 1.18% to 2525.17 points.
Nervousness investors won again a few hours of a meeting in Paris between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The two leaders are to discuss ways to implement to improve governance in the euro area and contain the problems of sovereign debt. No decision is fundamental to expect from this meeting, warned a spokesman for Angela Merkel yesterday, let alone on the front of the Eurobonds claimed by many investors. The latter will not even up for discussion. And it is this fact which disappointed observers who expected progress on the subject.In Europe, markets are plunged into the red.
European growth disappoints
The bad mood is also expected to result from the publication of European indicators disappointing that send negative signals about the health of the euro area. Germany, European locomotive, reported a surprise slowdown and sharp growth in the second quarter. The entire euro area saw growth of 0.2% after increasing 0.8% in the first quarter.
On the positive side: the United States, industrial production came out on Tuesday rose higher than expected for the month of July. This indicator should be closely watched by the markets, as they are concerned more and more sluggish growth of the world's largest economy. The release of housing starts, however, confirmed the slump.Departures from construction sites are in fact started to fall in July, after surging in June. As for import prices, they recorded an unexpected rebound.
Values to follow
On the corporate side, Home Depot (1.51% shortly after opening at $ 33) released better than expected earnings in the second quarter, while Wal-Mart (1.74% to 51.71 dollars ) recorded a further decline in sales over the same period. The retail giant has nevertheless issued a profit and a turnover up more than 5%.
Agilent Technologies (-0.04% to 37.46 dollars) reported Monday after-hours trading from a profit of $ 330 million, or 92 cents a share, in the third quarter, up 62% The number of Business was up to 1.69 billion.
Berkshire Hathaway (-1.4% to 107.17 dollars) would have taken a stake in the retailer Dollar General.
Dell (+0.14% to 15.65 dollars) and Saks (-0.12% to 8.95 dollars) must also publish their quarterly results on Tuesday.
Raising the U.S. debt ceiling on Tuesday night after a Senate vote, did not end concerns. The harshest criticism emanating from the largest creditor of the United States, China. Washington failed to "defuse the debt bomb," has dealt the official news agency Xinhua on Wednesday morning.
To support this message, the governor of the central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, announced that "foreign exchange reserves of China will continue to follow the principles of investment diversification and risk management." Clearly, the portion of funds invested in dollar continue to fall. "Large fluctuations and uncertainty in the market for Treasuries have an impact on the stability of the international monetary and financial system, and could affect the global economic recovery," said the Chinese official.Beijing has to worry: he has financial reserves of the largest in the world, or about 3.197 trillion dollars at the end of June, of which 1.16 trillion invested in U.S. Treasury.
The rating agency Dagong China has also downgraded the U.S. of A + to A, away from the AAA provided by Western agencies. She said raising the debt ceiling will "worsen" the situation. The show divisions between Republicans and Democrats in recent months "reflects the government's inability to solve the problem" of American finance, said she.
"A first step"
More lenient, Moody's affirmed the AAA rating of the United States, while combining it with a negative outlook. "The agreement voted Tuesday night is the first step to recovery of public accounts," she observed in a statement.But the financial health of the world's largest economy, and therefore its rating could be threatened if new austerity measures are not adopted in 2013, even if growth slows, or in case of sudden rise in interest rates.
The rating agency Fitch for its part, said Wednesday morning in a statement that it believes "the risk of default of the United States is extremely low." However, "the United States, like most countries in Europe, must confront difficult choices about taxes and spending in a sluggish economic recovery," and sufficient to redress public finances. Fitch confirmed Tuesday night the American note.
Standard & Poor's, the most influential of the three Western rating agencies, has not yet officially expressed.The director of sovereign ratings Takahira Ogawa, however, tried on Wednesday morning to alleviate the issues of possible degradation, "the market has to some extent already recognized the potential risk of a downgrade American." S & P had warned during the negotiations on the ceiling of the debt: the United States should save 4 trillion dollars over the next ten years to maintain their AAA. The plan adopted only on table 2.4 trillion.
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What are the consequences of a decline in the rating "AAA" American? The risk increases after a prolonged disagreement between Republicans and Democrats on the management of U.S. debt. The problem may seem far from the concerns of citizens, but U.S. President Barack Obama warned, "If we lose the AAA, everyone will pay more taxes. This will cause a rise in interest rates, which would have the same effect as raising taxes on all Americans. "And to raise the specter of rising rates of car loans on credit cards and in real estate.
Banks lend to their clients because at rates directly correlated to the performance of bonds. However, the higher the rating of a country, the lower the rates at which it must borrow increases.According to rating agency Standard & Poor's, the loss of "AAA" could cost between 0.25 and 0.5% growth rate in the United States. Analysis challenged by some economists, who point out that Japan, after seeing his note deteriorated in the early 2000s, had seen the contrary interest rates fall.
"Zero risk"
Still, never in the history of the United States has lost their prestigious note, despite a technical default part in 1979 (a few dates could not be met on time). It symbolized far "zero risk" to markets, which could buy U.S. debt with the confidence of being repaid.
A decline in the note, a real paradigm shift, "would affect the actions and change," warns Ciaran O'Hagan, strategist at Societe Generale. How much? Hard to say.The United States never lost their prestigious note, "the unprecedented nature of this reduction makes it difficult to determine all the ramifications of the financial markets and the economy," says agency Fitch.
Thus, it is not clear that the long-term investors seeking safe investments are fleeing the U.S. Treasury. For example, foreign central banks, which own 33% of U.S. debt, will not sell their shares, say analysts surveyed after UBS interested. According to Fitch, the Treasury will keep the short and medium term "their status as reference for interest rate markets."Clearly, there will be no widespread panic in the market for U.S. debt.
More than a threat to the United States themselves, "noted a deterioration in the U.S. crystallize the challenges for all developed countries, probably by opening the way for the degradation of other countries," says Jean- Baptiste Pethe, Exane BNP Paribas. If the U.S. lose their "AAA", France and the UK may well follow. The United States could then argue them, as Secretary of the Treasury Nixon had done about the dollar, "it is our rating, but your problem".
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CEO of TF1, Nonce Paolini, confirmed that he filed with the Higher Audiovisual Council an application for free for its continuous news channel, LCI. He stated that the free market is the right thing for news channels. "There is room for three news channels," he said in a conference with analysts. The television group should indeed file with the Higher Audiovisual Council a request to enter the free streaming news channel, LCI and BFM TV come and compete, owned NextRadio TV and i-TV, that of Canal +. But even before this request may be made, TF1 is already under the spotlight.
The subsidiary of the Bouygues group has indeed provided a strong rebound in net income increased 60% in first half year on year, to 118.6 million euros.As for further cost reductions, the television group posted a net increase in operating income over one year, 78.6% to 186.5 million euros. The cost of the grid of the TF1 channel has in fact declined by 482.6 million euros to 423.6 million. Good performance hailed by investors since the title was climbing to 11 hours of 6.80% to 13.59 euros, the largest increase in the SBF 120. One of its main competitors, M6, which must also publish its results on Tuesday but after-hours trading, climbing from 0.77% to 15.74 euros. Meanwhile, the Cac 40 was down 0.57%.
This policy of cost reductions initiated since 2008 had been welcomed on Friday by the U.S. rating agency, Standard & Poor's, which had raised a notch note of the group, believing that these savings would result in a better rentatibilité easy payday loans.The TF1 group has recorded a marked improvement in its operating margin, which has doubled in a year to reach 18.8%. "These statistics confirm, quarter after quarter, the effectiveness of measures taken to change positively the economic model of the group" welcomed the television group, which has however avoided giving details of its profitability target medium term.
Advertising revenue, "no particular concern" (Paolini)
In contrast, sales of the TF1 Group, which owns the Eurosport channel, TMC or LCI, fell slightly from 0.5% to about 1.3 billion euros. "Unlike last year, TF1 did not broadcast major sporting events (like World Cup soccer)," the statement said.Before the analysts, Nonce Paolini said he did not have "specific concerns" about the evolution of advertising revenue. The group is pleased to return to growth in advertising revenues in the second quarter (+0.7%) after a decline of 2.6% over the first three months of the year. Of all the activities, the advertising revenue shows an increase of 4.7% to 905.2 million euros. "The group remains more than ever mobilized to consolidate its leading position in the field of information and entertainment on the TV market and / or free," says TF1.
This slight decline in sales, however, makes the television group cautious about the stability of the whole of 2011. It evokes a persistent lack of visibility on the changing conditions.
Greece is saved, all the better, but remains to be done. This is in essence the common position of six candidates for the primary socialist. Otherwise, the appreciation of the Europe Agreement varies from the conviction of a rescue plan came too late to denounce a "blockage" no future. The range of reactions makes it possible to rank candidates on the scale of the radical.
In the camp of indignation, Ségolène Royal and Arnaud Montebourg topped. To say, the former candidate of 2007 was even offered the platform of the press room of the Rue de Solferino, usually reserved for the party's spokesman Martine Aubry or when she was first secretary function. The PS has made available to candidates for the primary means of its head, and still continuing the campaign, Ségolène Royal has given her a highly formal intervention. "This agreement lifejacket.We close the gaps, "she was outraged by asking managers to make decisions this summer on four issues: the establishment of a European sovereign fund, the appointment of a" commander in chief against crisis financial, "the prohibition of speculation and reform of credit rating agencies.
Arnaud Montebourg same tone in which denounced the "four unacceptable defects" of the rescue plan, including the fact that in his view, the risk of contagion to fragile states is not halted. Arnaud Montebourg also regretted that the banking sector is spared and that the plan "wrongly perpetuates the obsession with austerity."
"Strengthening the political union"
Candidate also the primary PS, the head of the Radical Left, Jean-Michel Baylet, lamented that "the vicious circle of speculation" is not halted.Just under back, François Hollande found the agreement "late" and "inadequate", while acknowledging that it was "necessary." "Like nothing lasting has been hired, we remain vulnerable and therefore much remains to be done," assured the former first secretary of the PS.
Finally, the most moderate responses came from Martine Aubry and Manuel Valls. While denouncing the weight of the rating agencies and regretting that it took to reach an agreement, "offer guarantees costly for Europe and Greece," the mayor of Lille called for "building the Government the euro. " Previously, the first secretary of the PS, on leave from his position, had welcomed the agreement between the leaders of the euro area."We had the Greek people, we were in Europe," she explained in a statement.
Also playing on the line of responsible political leader, Manuel Valls, for his part welcomed the agreement. "Put up against the wall, the heads of states of the euro area (…) are finally out of the inaction of the past few weeks," he said. But the deputy mayor of Evry has also called for further, to "establish a political action settled, peaceful and sustainable in order to strengthen the political union and the challenges of economic globalization."
Despite the withdrawal of support from the Ministry of Education, however, initiated the scheme in 2007, Operation "Essentials of the season" is renewed this year. The consumer association Familles de France, who led the negotiations only for the operation to be maintained, and obtained group Auchan, Carrefour, Casino, Cora and Système U marketing school supplies at prices that "most attractive as possible. " Items on a predetermined list, released by the department without committing to a price control, however, wants to "prevent slippage on the weight of school bag for children" must be placed on the shelves on Monday. They will be marked with a label.
The binder excluded from the list
The list 2011 includes thirty references, from books to filing through the rubber and pencil sharpener.This year, it does not ultimately buy a binder. The withdrawal of the article led the Federation of Parents for Public Education (PEEP) to leave the negotiation. "We recognize the economic reality and the context of rising raw material such as that 40% of the price of pulp, said Daniel SCHWARZ, treasurer of PEEP. That's why we were ready to discuss a positive impact on prices, perfectly stable since 2007. But the fact that teaches unilaterally remove the binder from this list, it is not acceptable. The binder for us is critical, there is. "
Rising prices
Creyssel Jacques, managing director of the Federation of Commercial and distribution (FCD), whose members are the retailers participating in the operation, has stressed during a press conference that the prices of "Essentials of return "would increase. "The increase will be moderate," he promised, however. Brigitte Masure, president of the Confederation of families, intérogée by Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France believes that the purchase of supplies back last year cost 40 euros for a child to kindergarten, 113 euros for a PC, 337 euros for a sixth and 821 euros for a second student to technology. The invoice should climb this year.A study published in late June by the online shopping site Twenga revealed that the average cost of supplies were increased by 18% compared to last year.
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