After three potential scenarios developed by the working group of Bertrand Fragonard, president of the High Council for Family Affairs, it was the turn of the Economic Social and Environmental Committee (EESC) to make known its proposals to finance the old age dependency. The two rapporteurs of the text have sent the first draft to all members of the EESC. The final opinion must be considered and voted that the 14 and 15 June before being sent to the government that sought to prepare its reform this summer.
In his text, the Committee stresses the challenge "societal" dependency. Solutions "is to implement new (…) of solidarity, sustainable for families as the public finances over time," says the notice emphasizes that the financing of the loss of autonomy must be on a casting vote by the national solidarity.According to figures cited by the EESC, expenses associated with the dependence reached last year, 33 billion euros, 24 billion to the burden of the community. Population projections are also reported an increase of 25% of people aged over 75 by 2025.
1% on inheritances and donations
To ensure the extra spending, the Committee advocates the establishment of a 1% tax on inheritances and donations out of business transfers and professional tool. "This tax would apply to all products that are not taxed today," said Monique Weber (CFE-CGC), co-rapporteur of the draft opinion.Successions between married or civil unions would then be concerned, like those on certain real property (located mainly in Corsica and benefit from exemptions), works of art, or gifts and legacies made for the benefit of associations .
The Notice also contemplates "the alignment of the full rate of the CSG on pensions (6.6%) on the assets (7.5%). This option, proposed in particular by the MEDEF, Fragonard and the commission did not favor the government but in the EESC could bring 1.7 billion euro. The opinion, however, leaves open the debate and suggests that this increase in the CSG could be applied "beyond a certain threshold of income."Other lines of inquiry such as the introduction of a second day of solidarity, an increase of half a point in the premium pension scheme, a levy on the assets of the highest or the introduction of VAT name, have however been excluded.
The text also stresses that to the increasing share taken by private insurance contracts, several precautions must be met to avoid the rising cost of loss of autonomy in the home, including the poorest.The EESC therefore envisages the creation of "a label given to public contracts respecting the specifications, and introduce government subsidies to help households subscribe to these guarantees.
Finally, beyond the financial recommendations, the project would include a large number of practical recommendations for home support for older people or support for caregivers (family members caring for dependent persons), according Monique Weber. Trails explored by the commission as Bertrand Fragonard.
ALSO READ:
"Dependency: three tracks to support the cost
"Dependency: a significant cost in 30 years
"Dependency: OECD met in France
"The 20 proposals concerning the dependence of the MEDEF
"Dependency: 4 working groups
No more Nokia. The world's number one telephone on Tuesday released an alert on its results. The restructuring announcements in recent months have failed to rectify the accounts.
The turnover of its phone division will be "substantially" lower than the initial forecast of between 6.1 and 6.6 billion euros for the second quarter. Volumes and average selling prices of the phones are below expectations. The operating margin will be, too, much lower than the previously announced range (6 to 9%). It could be "close to the equilibrium point (zero), predicted the group. For the record, the Apple flirts with 42%.
Nokia also believes "it is more appropriate to provide annual targets for 2011."Leaving the field of speculations open: Would it be so bad? However, the group plans to provide quarterly forecasts and annual targets "when circumstances permit."
"The strategic transition periods are difficult," Elop justified. Called into action last September, the former Microsoft, the first foreigner to head the Finnish group, failed to stem the loss of market share in the group. After an initial phase, punctuated by an overhaul of management and a mea culpa General Company for recognizing the delay in smartphones, the first steps have been taken No teletrack payday loans. No effect yet.
Four years late
Nokia announced it would abandon its gradual Symbian operating system for the Microsoft Windows phone.However, "the first Nokia product with Windows Phone to be launched in the fourth quarter," Stephen Elop said Tuesday. Not only does it arrive on the market a year after the first Windows phone, but in addition, this system has, so far, not met with great commercial success. In announcing the alliance, Nokia and Microsoft, Google's boss had also joked, "Two turkeys will not make an eagle." This does not Nokia to build on this progress to return to the smartphone market. It is also imperative to send back the average selling price of its phones to stop the erosion of margins.
Since joining Nokia, Stephen Elop has been repeatedly stressed the need to change strategy. The Group's business challenges are no secret to anyone.This revised outlook 2011 has been very badly received by the markets which saw a further sign of wavering in management. On Tuesday, the stock has lost 17.53% to 4.75 euros. Since 2007 and the arrival of the iPhone on the market, it sold 83%.
Despite his cheerful voice, that the bitterness that prevails. After 17 years of work to earn temporary caps in many societies, Sylvie Trouillet displays its ras-le-bol without wearing gloves. "The interim, it became a battle every day," she plague. The latest figures from job center, which show an improvement of temporary employment from 14% in one year, let this marble forties. His only concern: "The precarious status of the Interim," which in her opinion, rises to a crescendo.This observation led him to create the National Association of long-term acting (Anild), to defend the rights of these workers.
Unemployed since the beginning of the year except for a mission of "technical secretary" of three weeks in an estate agency that winter, the executive assistant training roundly on a sector that "has profoundly deteriorated over last twenty years. " After two CDI punctuated redundancies, first in a shoe wholesaler, then to a company renovating the building, she pushed for the first time the door of a temporary agency in 1994. She is 26 years."At the time, there was no support or unemployment benefits, it should work right away." In the process, she landed her first mission at France Telecom: a post of Assistant Director of site Val de Fontenay, near Paris.
From 1990 to 2001, "a blessed time of the gods"
Nestle to Air France, through the Savings Bank, EDF, the National Federation of jewelers, etc.. The missions are linked together, "often of long duration, three to six months." "The phone rang regularly," recalls she, calling the period from early 1990 until 2001, "blessed by the gods." Throughout the experiments, "I climbed the ladder from secretary to become commercial or sténodacylo framework," adds Sylvia proudly."With the interim, my salary has also increased from the minimum wage paid to 3,000 euros per month," connects the daughter of butchers, who then receives the temporary work as a springboard. Claiming a status of "interim career, by choice," she does not think in this context, to move towards a CDD or CDI.
But in 2001, the "gods" are less forgiving. The "changeover" to mark the beginning of a Sylvie "period of uncertainty" in the chain of missions pay day advance. "Suddenly, with this first crisis, the candidates have poured into the agencies," in which "human relations" were, she said, reduced to a trickle. "The agencies were no longer account for our luggage to our versatility and experience as before, she does most valued our résumé," Sylvie annoyed. "We proposed missions under-qualified, sometimes without regard to our training.And if they refused, we were told that there were thirty people behind. "Consequence of the crisis that followed the bursting of the dotcom bubble, pushing companies to drastically reduce their costs and staffing. For Sylvie, agencies, anxious to maintain their contracts with their corporate partners, then stopped "selling" their acting properly.
The Interim, "an unemployed sleep"
And according to him, the situation has further deteriorated since the last crisis. A real gap has widened particularly between "acting, which is not entitled to RTT, or tickets to restaurants" and "owner" analysis does."Once, a colleague told me anyway, an interim president, is an unemployed worker to sleep!" Without the assurance of finding work every time, like many self-employed Sylvie concedes that his private and social life has taken a hit: "I'm single, childless, and have not taken a vacation since 1982," she whispered.
In 2005, while unemployment and "free allocation", Sylvia suffers a period of great distress. "The phone rang again I was a nervous wreck.Sometimes I had to settle for a glass of milk and a biscuit a day. "It will take the opportunity of a mission at Carrefour to put an end to this rough patch and regain morale.
With Anild its association founded in January with a friend acting, Sylvie hopes to "raise awareness among agencies, public opinion and government" in the evolution of temporary work, especially for the 2012 presidential election. Only fifteen members have so far joined its ranks. Although many in comparison "of more than 800,000 temporary" that make up the market. But she said many people have already made contact. Besides his commitment, Sylvie is looking for work. Meanwhile, as always, that "the phone rings."
By September 2007, Francois Fillon said "being at the head of a State which is in bankruptcy." More than ever today. At the end of 2010, the government's balance sheet, liabilities exceeded assets (real estate, leases, equities, etc..) From 757 billion euros. In other words, even selling all his possessions, the state could not repay its debts. So says the report of the Court of Auditors on implementation of 2010 budget, released Wednesday.
The slippage of the state debt (again, up 81 billion last year) is only a reflection of accumulation, year after year of deficits.Since the crisis, the government deficit has increased fourfold, from 34.7 billion in 2007 to 148,800,000,000 in 2010.
Certainly, last year was marked by exceptional costs: the future investments (34.6 billion), aid to Greece (4.4 billion) stimulus plan (6.8 billion) and reform of business tax (7.7 billion). Nevertheless, even eliminating these effects, the deficit is approaching $ 100 billion.
Evidence that the situation is fundamentally unbalanced, in 2010, 18.5% of current expenditures of the state have been financed by borrowing, according to the Court. And Didier Migaud, its first president, was listed Wednesday its' reasons for concern "to the Finance Committee of the Assembly. Despite economic recovery, "the spontaneous growth of tax revenues has remained limited (8.6 billion)," he said.In addition, tax loopholes have, as a trend, yet increased by 2.5 billion. Finally, expenditures are not controlled, according to the Court. The government says it has held its goal to achieve, excluding the effect of inflation, spending "normal" state (the so-called "sub standard"). But, according to Didier Migaud, "some steps have been excluded from the calculation of how questionable the norm. By integrating these elements, spending rose 0.7%.
Cost of business tax reform
Another sticking point: the reform of business tax. The Court finds that because of "deficiencies of the information system", having weighed the burden on the state in 2010 is "uncertain." But the amounts involved are substantial (7.7 billion for the Court, 7.3 billion announced in December by Bercy).This item has arrested members who, while recognizing the specificities of the first year, fear that the reform cost then more than 4.7 billion per year under Bercy.
Information systems of the state are also subject to a reserve certification from the Court. With six points, as the assets of the Department of Defense or the real estate. Apart from these reservations (fewer than nine of 2009), the Court finds the state accounts for 2010 as scheduled, giving a true and fair view ". France is, with the United Kingdom or the United States, one of the few countries where an independent organization certifies the accounts of the state. A guarantee of reliability important now.
ALSO READ:
"Speculation on Succession of Lagarde at Bercy
"VIDEO – 'Most notary fees goes to the State"
It is hardly imaginable that Dominique Strauus-Kahn to head the International Monetary Fund from a cell in New York. The IMF board would meet Monday in Washington to discuss the implications of the continued imprisonment of its CEO. Already begun thinking about potential candidates to succeed DSK has become urgent, despite the reluctance of European countries worried about the prospect of losing their privilege to appoint the head of the institution.
During the last hours of the Fund releases were terse. What is important for the international organization was initially to understand that it remained fully operational, although its chief executive is temporarily absent from Washington (which happens often).The IMF chief functions are in fact fully assumed as always by his first deputy, John Lipsky.
"We keep our full confidence in the IMF," the spokesman commented yesterday of Barack Obama. The members of "staff" IMF questioned mainly on how the head of the IMF would handle his legal defense while remaining fully operational as "MD" (pronounced M Di), ie as Director General.
The credibility of the IMF
Once past the feeling of amazement at the sordid nature of the charges against their bosses, executives of the IMF think in rational terms: "The IMF can work short term in serenity," said a frame. Lipsky did not perhaps not the political stature of DSK, especially against the highest authorities of the euro area, but he is clever, experienced, respected and may well fly the plane.But we must now find a successor to DSK.
And already many names circulating as potential candidates to succeed the boss destabilized but still far from being condemned direct payday lenders. Most of them are ministers or former ministers and central bankers of emerging economies. They are convinced that the time has come to recognize their virtues and their economic success. Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore's Finance Minister, Trevor Manuel, who held the same position in South Africa, or Kemal Dervis, a former Turkish counterpart, are cited. It is further necessary that the industrialized countries agree. For Europeans who are originally from one of their own to head the IMF, these options are painful.
Mario Draghi not interested in the position at the IMF
"There are good reasons to have a European candidate ready to assume the number one position in the IMF, but emerging countries may also be eligible for the medium term" recognized Angela Merkel, in no hurry to sell this strategic role for young country strong growth.
The question for Europeans is as it was a matter of prestige. In their eyes, especially a European one would best guarantee of greater benevolence of the IMF in respect of serious problems in the euro area. "This is no time for discussion of who will replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn" says her German Chancellor. It is hard to believe this assertion.Already Italy's Mario Draghi, who became a big favorite for the presidency of the ECB is "not at all interested" to eventually succeed Dominique Strauss-Kahn to head the IMF, said on Monday A spokeswoman for Bank of Italy.
ALSO READ:
"
ALSO READ:
"SPECIAL – Matter DSK
Each has experienced: it is always extremely difficult to move from average to a respectable level of excellence, whether you are a pianist or a tennis player. The same is true for nations attain the status of "rich country" is not a foregone conclusion. Even when recording a growth of 10% per annum, and for three decades, which has enabled the Chinese to multiply their individual standard of living in a little over a generation.
Economic development is certainly not an exact science, but the trees do not ascend to heaven. Even in the jungle of state capitalism. There is no example in history where the growing disheveled inflected not only from a certain stage.By examining the career of some forty countries since the Second World War, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Kwanho Shin Park and discovered that the expansion slows inexorably past the threshold of 16,740 dollars to the GDP (gross domestic product) per capita. Anxious to establish historical comparisons, the three economists have reduced all data in constant currency (dollars at 2005 prices). Their study is published by the NBER (When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China).
This law, the French and their European neighbors have suffered in the early 1970s. In France, 1973 has been the hinge, GDP individual having reached 16,904 dollars. Over the past seven years – the reign of De Gaulle and Pompidou – per capita growth was galloping at a rate of 4.6%.She fell to 2.2% during the seven-year following that of Valery Giscard d'Estaing, a decrease of 2.4% of scheme. The United States had known since 1968 a reversal of the same nature and magnitude slightly higher (2.5%, according to calculations by three economists).
This break in France coincided with the first oil shock, which our countrymen seem to have still not delivered. Since then, it has ceased to lament the state of "crisis". The French have not realized that they had recently experienced a "golden age a quarter century of rapid growth inaugurated by the Marshall Plan and the postwar recovery," said Barry Eichengreen and his two confreres . Fourastie what John called the "Thirty Glorious Years".
China has a number of vulnerabilities
The scenario is in reality always the same: the reconstruction periods are marked by exceptional productivity gains.They do not constitute a sustainable standard. Farmworkers become industrial country imports the new technologies which increase its effectiveness. But once this revenue exhausted, we must innovate and find other vectors of prosperity. Furthermore the threshold of 16,740 dollars, all three economists put forward another concept: things become more difficult when a country obtains a level equivalent to 57% of GDP in the most advanced economy, one that portrays "on the technological frontier "(the United States in this case).
For its part, China still seems quite distant from these two criteria, especially the second (the Chinese GDP was only 19.7% that of the U.S. in 2007). But should it maintain its annual rate of 10%, it would affect the level of fateful 16,740 dollars per capita in 2014. The danger zone is reached in just three years.Barry Eichengreen prognostic so that "a significant slowdown in Chinese growth is imminent."
It is even more positive that China presents to him a number of vulnerabilities, making the course more difficult to cross than others. The observation of the forty countries studied shows that the transition is particularly difficult for a country to an authoritarian political regime, the industrial workforce is over 20% of the workforce and has a weak currency. Korea offers the previous "one centered on manufacturing exports and helped by an undervalued currency, with a consequent sharp fall in its expansion in the 1990s, culminating in the 1997 financial crisis.
Brazil is a land of opportunity
The study envisages a significant shift for China's annual growth would average between 6.1% and 7% over the decade, and would fall another notch (5% to 6.2% between 2021 and 2030 ). Barry Eichengreen believes that "Chinese authorities are convinced that a slowdown will intervene." Beijing seems sincere when he sets a target of 7% annual growth for the five-year plan 2011-2015.
The new emphasis on domestic demand and services, instead of all bet on the industry and export, is designed to circumvent the curse that threatens the country catch up. Many of them never get out of the "middle income trap" (around 16,500 dollars) for lack of a successful transformation.What they think the French have managed to "obtain the status of high-income countries" and since 1973 the GDP per capita has more than doubled. However, this is not the case in Latin America, said Barry Eichengreen. "Brazil is a country of the future and will remain" in the words attributed to General de Gaulle in the 1960s.
The CFE-CGC does not disarm. The plant managers could not veto the recent agreement on supplementary pensions, failing to persuade two other unions. So she decided to sue or riders to the 1947 Convention establishing Agirc, which translate this agreement or the ministerial orders that will extend (the process would then proceed to the State Council).
The CFE-CGC is indeed very bad agreement for executives. It denies such a cap on family benefits (1000 euro annual "bonus" of up to three children), while contributions are not capped. According to the CFE-CGC, this device violates the founding convention of 1947.
The union sees this text signed by all social partners at the time exceed the following agreements, as the Constitution is above the law.If the court confirmed this analysis, the impact on the future of supplemental plans are uncertain. The CFE-CGC think we should negotiate a new agreement.
In fifty years, two times more dependent elderly. This is the perspective that traces the working group on "demographic and financial issues, set up by Roselyne Bachelot to prepare the reform of addiction. Projected that this group, led by Jean-Michel Charpin, study Tuesday afternoon, holding it in effect a "middle scenario" leading to rise from 1.15 million addicts in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2060 (being considered as dependent persons entitled to the allowance APA, according to current criteria for the award).
Enrollment growth would be 2% per annum by 2017-2020, then 1.1% per year until 2030 (period when the cohorts born in 1930 will reach the age of dependency), then 2% between 2030 and 2045 (the baby-boomers) and 0.6% per year thereafter.These figures are higher than the latest official forecast, prepared in 2005 by the Center for Strategic Analysis. "Three factors explain the discrepancy, details Roselyne Bachelot. First, the start of the APA faster than expected. Then, the latest forecast by INSEE, which increased the proposed number of seniors. "In half a century, France has 5.4 million over 85 years. "Finally, it was betting up to that every year of life expectancy gained would be a healthy year, says the Minister of Solidarity. It seems that this traditional view is rather trite and does not hold in recent years. "
This scenario, so far "predominant" is now considered "optimistic."However, the opposite idea (gains in life expectancy would result in full by a lengthening of the duration dependence) is not in the heart of the simulations of the working group, although it is mentioned in a "pessimistic scenario" payday loans. The main scenario is based on the assumption that the proportion of dependence-free life expectancy to 65 years in total life expectancy at age 65, will remain stable. Currently, life expectancy at age 65 is 22.5 years for women, 19.1 years without dependence (85%). It would increase to 27.6 years in 2060, including 23.4 years without dependence, 4.9 years gained healthy (85%). And, therefore, 0.8 year older in a state of dependency.For men, life expectancy at 65 years falling from 18.1 years currently, with 16.7 years without dependence (92%), of which 21.7 years to 23.6 years without dependence.
Evaluate the probabilities
"While some questioned the usefulness of new projections or accused the President of the Republic of catastrophism, nobody can say" everything is going very well, Madame la Marquise,''said Roselyne Bachelot. We have a scenario in which the political decision to meet. "The minister nevertheless admits:" No one can certify that these assumptions will be realized fifty years.Maybe we'll have a vaccine against Alzheimer's! But the horizon of political decision, it is ten years and, unfortunately, we are almost certain that there will be no vaccine by then. "
Work will continue over the coming weeks, especially to better assess the probability and consequences of extreme scenarios that lead to this point a very wide range, from 1.85 to 3.15 million addicts in 2060.
Divorce is not yet consummated, but the employee-manager relations are deteriorating. If employees remain largely (78%) satisfied with their work, their relationships with their direct supervisor were suffering from the crisis, says a survey by BVA for the consulting firm BPI. Today, they are only 22% have a high opinion of their manager, a drop of ten percentage points from 2007.
Managerial qualities as acclaimed by employees – listening, ability to motivate, to speak the truth, to admit his mistakes, to establish a relationship of trust … – are those who, according to interviewees, most fault their superiors. Today's employees are primarily responsive to the human qualities of their leaders direct, technical expertise from the background.A survey Mediaprism Group has even tried to compare the ideal manager with an animal before the fox, the animal most often cited was a St. Bernard!
However, managers have less time to develop such qualities. "With the crisis, job cuts, local managers (ie: those that are directly related to employees) are less numerous. They therefore have less time to connect and manage "the BVA survey analysis.
"The task of managers has become more complex, confirms Olivier Herlin, a management consultant with Covenants Council. The constraints they face while increasing their capabilities stagnate or even decline guaranteed pay day loans.Increasingly, they are asked to produce indicators, dashboards, which nibble the time spent in management in the proper sense. "
Unmotivated troops
Impact: employees feel relatively little about life and their business strategy, and are increasingly reluctant to express their own opinion. According to the BVA barometer, 52% of employees feel that what they think the job might be frowned upon.
Yet the quality of the relationship established with the manager is critical to the ability of a firm to retain its best people. "We joined a company, you leave a boss," says Pascale Portères, vice president of BPI.For 75% of respondents, their supervisor plays a key role in their commitment to the company, and remains an effective lever of motivation.
A data should not be overlooked at a time when employees note with disappointment that the sacrifices made during the economic crisis will not be rewarded financially. "There's real frustration, all sectors and occupational categories combined. Employees are ever in search of recognition, analysis Pascale Portères. If managers do not know to be more attentive to their employees, I fear a worsening of the mobilization. "