Each has experienced: it is always extremely difficult to move from average to a respectable level of excellence, whether you are a pianist or a tennis player. The same is true for nations attain the status of "rich country" is not a foregone conclusion. Even when recording a growth of 10% per annum, and for three decades, which has enabled the Chinese to multiply their individual standard of living in a little over a generation.
Economic development is certainly not an exact science, but the trees do not ascend to heaven. Even in the jungle of state capitalism. There is no example in history where the growing disheveled inflected not only from a certain stage.By examining the career of some forty countries since the Second World War, Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Kwanho Shin Park and discovered that the expansion slows inexorably past the threshold of 16,740 dollars to the GDP (gross domestic product) per capita. Anxious to establish historical comparisons, the three economists have reduced all data in constant currency (dollars at 2005 prices). Their study is published by the NBER (When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China).
This law, the French and their European neighbors have suffered in the early 1970s. In France, 1973 has been the hinge, GDP individual having reached 16,904 dollars. Over the past seven years – the reign of De Gaulle and Pompidou – per capita growth was galloping at a rate of 4.6%.She fell to 2.2% during the seven-year following that of Valery Giscard d'Estaing, a decrease of 2.4% of scheme. The United States had known since 1968 a reversal of the same nature and magnitude slightly higher (2.5%, according to calculations by three economists).
This break in France coincided with the first oil shock, which our countrymen seem to have still not delivered. Since then, it has ceased to lament the state of "crisis". The French have not realized that they had recently experienced a "golden age a quarter century of rapid growth inaugurated by the Marshall Plan and the postwar recovery," said Barry Eichengreen and his two confreres . Fourastie what John called the "Thirty Glorious Years".
China has a number of vulnerabilities
The scenario is in reality always the same: the reconstruction periods are marked by exceptional productivity gains.They do not constitute a sustainable standard. Farmworkers become industrial country imports the new technologies which increase its effectiveness. But once this revenue exhausted, we must innovate and find other vectors of prosperity. Furthermore the threshold of 16,740 dollars, all three economists put forward another concept: things become more difficult when a country obtains a level equivalent to 57% of GDP in the most advanced economy, one that portrays "on the technological frontier "(the United States in this case).
For its part, China still seems quite distant from these two criteria, especially the second (the Chinese GDP was only 19.7% that of the U.S. in 2007). But should it maintain its annual rate of 10%, it would affect the level of fateful 16,740 dollars per capita in 2014. The danger zone is reached in just three years.Barry Eichengreen prognostic so that "a significant slowdown in Chinese growth is imminent."
It is even more positive that China presents to him a number of vulnerabilities, making the course more difficult to cross than others. The observation of the forty countries studied shows that the transition is particularly difficult for a country to an authoritarian political regime, the industrial workforce is over 20% of the workforce and has a weak currency. Korea offers the previous "one centered on manufacturing exports and helped by an undervalued currency, with a consequent sharp fall in its expansion in the 1990s, culminating in the 1997 financial crisis.
Brazil is a land of opportunity
The study envisages a significant shift for China's annual growth would average between 6.1% and 7% over the decade, and would fall another notch (5% to 6.2% between 2021 and 2030 ). Barry Eichengreen believes that "Chinese authorities are convinced that a slowdown will intervene." Beijing seems sincere when he sets a target of 7% annual growth for the five-year plan 2011-2015.
The new emphasis on domestic demand and services, instead of all bet on the industry and export, is designed to circumvent the curse that threatens the country catch up. Many of them never get out of the "middle income trap" (around 16,500 dollars) for lack of a successful transformation.What they think the French have managed to "obtain the status of high-income countries" and since 1973 the GDP per capita has more than doubled. However, this is not the case in Latin America, said Barry Eichengreen. "Brazil is a country of the future and will remain" in the words attributed to General de Gaulle in the 1960s.
The CFE-CGC does not disarm. The plant managers could not veto the recent agreement on supplementary pensions, failing to persuade two other unions. So she decided to sue or riders to the 1947 Convention establishing Agirc, which translate this agreement or the ministerial orders that will extend (the process would then proceed to the State Council).
The CFE-CGC is indeed very bad agreement for executives. It denies such a cap on family benefits (1000 euro annual "bonus" of up to three children), while contributions are not capped. According to the CFE-CGC, this device violates the founding convention of 1947.
The union sees this text signed by all social partners at the time exceed the following agreements, as the Constitution is above the law.If the court confirmed this analysis, the impact on the future of supplemental plans are uncertain. The CFE-CGC think we should negotiate a new agreement.
In fifty years, two times more dependent elderly. This is the perspective that traces the working group on "demographic and financial issues, set up by Roselyne Bachelot to prepare the reform of addiction. Projected that this group, led by Jean-Michel Charpin, study Tuesday afternoon, holding it in effect a "middle scenario" leading to rise from 1.15 million addicts in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2060 (being considered as dependent persons entitled to the allowance APA, according to current criteria for the award).
Enrollment growth would be 2% per annum by 2017-2020, then 1.1% per year until 2030 (period when the cohorts born in 1930 will reach the age of dependency), then 2% between 2030 and 2045 (the baby-boomers) and 0.6% per year thereafter.These figures are higher than the latest official forecast, prepared in 2005 by the Center for Strategic Analysis. "Three factors explain the discrepancy, details Roselyne Bachelot. First, the start of the APA faster than expected. Then, the latest forecast by INSEE, which increased the proposed number of seniors. "In half a century, France has 5.4 million over 85 years. "Finally, it was betting up to that every year of life expectancy gained would be a healthy year, says the Minister of Solidarity. It seems that this traditional view is rather trite and does not hold in recent years. "
This scenario, so far "predominant" is now considered "optimistic."However, the opposite idea (gains in life expectancy would result in full by a lengthening of the duration dependence) is not in the heart of the simulations of the working group, although it is mentioned in a "pessimistic scenario" payday loans. The main scenario is based on the assumption that the proportion of dependence-free life expectancy to 65 years in total life expectancy at age 65, will remain stable. Currently, life expectancy at age 65 is 22.5 years for women, 19.1 years without dependence (85%). It would increase to 27.6 years in 2060, including 23.4 years without dependence, 4.9 years gained healthy (85%). And, therefore, 0.8 year older in a state of dependency.For men, life expectancy at 65 years falling from 18.1 years currently, with 16.7 years without dependence (92%), of which 21.7 years to 23.6 years without dependence.
Evaluate the probabilities
"While some questioned the usefulness of new projections or accused the President of the Republic of catastrophism, nobody can say" everything is going very well, Madame la Marquise,''said Roselyne Bachelot. We have a scenario in which the political decision to meet. "The minister nevertheless admits:" No one can certify that these assumptions will be realized fifty years.Maybe we'll have a vaccine against Alzheimer's! But the horizon of political decision, it is ten years and, unfortunately, we are almost certain that there will be no vaccine by then. "
Work will continue over the coming weeks, especially to better assess the probability and consequences of extreme scenarios that lead to this point a very wide range, from 1.85 to 3.15 million addicts in 2060.
Divorce is not yet consummated, but the employee-manager relations are deteriorating. If employees remain largely (78%) satisfied with their work, their relationships with their direct supervisor were suffering from the crisis, says a survey by BVA for the consulting firm BPI. Today, they are only 22% have a high opinion of their manager, a drop of ten percentage points from 2007.
Managerial qualities as acclaimed by employees – listening, ability to motivate, to speak the truth, to admit his mistakes, to establish a relationship of trust … – are those who, according to interviewees, most fault their superiors. Today's employees are primarily responsive to the human qualities of their leaders direct, technical expertise from the background.A survey Mediaprism Group has even tried to compare the ideal manager with an animal before the fox, the animal most often cited was a St. Bernard!
However, managers have less time to develop such qualities. "With the crisis, job cuts, local managers (ie: those that are directly related to employees) are less numerous. They therefore have less time to connect and manage "the BVA survey analysis.
"The task of managers has become more complex, confirms Olivier Herlin, a management consultant with Covenants Council. The constraints they face while increasing their capabilities stagnate or even decline guaranteed pay day loans.Increasingly, they are asked to produce indicators, dashboards, which nibble the time spent in management in the proper sense. "
Unmotivated troops
Impact: employees feel relatively little about life and their business strategy, and are increasingly reluctant to express their own opinion. According to the BVA barometer, 52% of employees feel that what they think the job might be frowned upon.
Yet the quality of the relationship established with the manager is critical to the ability of a firm to retain its best people. "We joined a company, you leave a boss," says Pascale Portères, vice president of BPI.For 75% of respondents, their supervisor plays a key role in their commitment to the company, and remains an effective lever of motivation.
A data should not be overlooked at a time when employees note with disappointment that the sacrifices made during the economic crisis will not be rewarded financially. "There's real frustration, all sectors and occupational categories combined. Employees are ever in search of recognition, analysis Pascale Portères. If managers do not know to be more attentive to their employees, I fear a worsening of the mobilization. "
The Apple boss has booked a nice surprise to his fans. When he was announced to be on sick leave for six months, and rumors that the dying announced, Steve Jobs is onstage drama of San Francisco (California, western United States). Acclaimed, he then introduced the second version of the iPad tablet computer. The tablet computer keeps the same price, between 499 and 829 dollars (between 359 and 597 euros) depending on version. The iPad will be sold to two metastable United from 11 March and 26 other countries, including France, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Japan, from March 25 business card design.
Despite his illness, Steve Jobs, who appeared thin, has not lost his sense of humor and vitality. "Almost 15 million iPads sold in nine months in 2010. It's more than any tablet PCs ever sold, "he quips."It's been quite some time that we worked on it and I did not want to miss a great day," said Steve Jobs. He still survived pancreatic cancer in 2004 and a liver transplant in 2009.
Steve Jobs introduced the second version of the iPad.
The King of results announcements of companies taking a break. So, what are the economic indicators that replicate the hand and should facilitate the meeting this Friday. After opening slightly higher, the CAC 40 decreased again: the index in Paris lost 0.18% to 4144.78 points.
At the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE-100 advance from 0.15% to 6097.37 points. Exchange and the Frankfurt the Dax gained 0.22% to 7422.11 points.
The industrial morale slightly lower
On the macroeconomic front, industrial morale dipped slightly in February, down two points from the previous month, with 106 points, Insee said Friday.It remains above its long-term average (100 points).
The business climate in manufacturing industry in France worsened slightly, according to the monthly business survey released Friday by INSEE.
Once is not custom, no economic statistics are expected in the United States. However, the president of the Central Bank, Ben Bernanke, will participate in the G20 ministerial held in Paris, which will be attended by Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the twenty richest countries in the world. Bernanke will talk about "global imbalances and financial stability" (14 hours).
On the currency markets, the euro fell slightly against the dollar at 1.3590 dollar.
Lafarge in line with expectations
Lafarge 2.58% to 47.18 euros – the largest increase CAC 40
Lafarge said Friday anticipate a rebound between 3% and 6% (cons -1% to +3% expected in 2010) of cement demand in 2011 after a 2010 financial year marked by overall results online. The world's leading cement has published results in line with expectations.
Bull: 6.09% to 3.83 euros
Bull announces this morning a net profit of 6.5 million euros in 2010, earnings increased fourfold over the previous year, when it reached 1.4 million euros.
Bouygues: 1.04% at 33.85 euros
A consortium led by Bouygues has been chosen by the state to build the future "at the Pentagon French" on the site Balard, in south-west of Paris, as Le Figaro said Thursday. Information confirmed by the MoD in a statement.
The consortium led by Bouygues includes Thales (-0.57% to 27.26 euros) for computing, Sodexo (1.49% to 50.74 euros) for services, Dalkia Energy and FIDEPPP – bringing together the Savings and Natixis (+0.15% to 4.14 euros) – and SEIEF as financial investors.
Eutelsat: -1.54% to 28.44 euros
Eutelsat has released interim results that put it on track to exceed its targets for 2010-2011.
Societe Generale: +0.25% to 52.17 euros, BNP Paribas: -0.68% to 58, 37 Euro
The Government of Côte d'Ivoire has declared Thursday the nationalization of local subsidiary of Societe Generale and BNP Paribas have suspended their activities, including the two French institutions.
France Telecom: 0.68% to 16.3 euros
Orange filed a complaint against Bouygues Telecom before the Commercial Court of Paris, following the January 1 bug that caused an increase in involuntary SMS.Orange seeking millions of euros in damages.
Nearly eight million shares traded Archos, the title takes off
Peugeot: -0.25% to 29.70 euros
Workers and employees of Peugeot should be increased by 1.7% with a minimum of 34 euros, from 1 March.
Air France-KLM: 0.16% to 12.47 euros
According to the report of the court in Bobigny, including Le Figaro has obtained a copy, the Central Works Council of Air France needs of 20.5 million to continue its activity in 2011 and avoid defaulting .
Archos: 3.50% to 7.98 euros
Archos, which will release its quarterly and annual results after market close on February 22, jumped over 34% to 7.71 euros on Thursday on the financial markets. Nearly eight million shares, or approximately one third of the capital of Apple competitor on the shelves, were exchanged.
Just under one fifth of the CAC 40 were published on Thursday morning. After Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, the Paris Stock Exchange opens on a slight rise, following this new wave of publications heavyweights rating. The CAC 40 rose 0.22% to 4160.78 points.
Since Wednesday, the U.S. macroeconomic news will be especially with the United States: Inflation in January (1430), the weekly claims for unemployment benefits (1430) and the composite indicator of economic activity in January (16 hours).
In France, expected numbers of start-ups in January (8.45) and the presentation of the 2011 Annual Public Report of the Court of Auditors (1230).Around 10 am, will be published balance of payments in the eurozone.
On the currency markets, the euro is stable against the dollar on Thursday morning at 1.3560 dollar.
BNP Paribas missed market expectations in the fourth quarter
Despite a 2010 net profit up 34% to 7.8 billion euros, BNP Paribas has missed market expectations in the fourth quarter, after a depreciation in its accounts unexpectedly on its stake in Axa.
Canal + France said it had registered Wednesday its core document with the AMF, to an IPO in Paris 20% of its capital.
The insurer Axa in 2010 recorded a net profit of 2.749 billion euros, down 24%, affected by special items related to divestitures in the United Kingdom, according to a statement released Thursday.
PPR has reported an annual net profit up 1.4% to 965 million euros, while its turnover in 2010 rose 7.5% to 14.6 billion euros.The distribution group and luxury is confident to achieve this year's financial performance than those of 2010.
Technip table for this year on a turnover of about 6.5 to 6.7 billion euros and an operating margin Subsea (subsea infrastructure) above 15% free business cards.
Schneider Electric has published on Thursday a net profit doubled in 2010 to 1.7 billion euros.The group targets a growth of 6 to 9% this year, a margin which improved to reach 15 to 15.5% in 2011.
The wine and spirits group Pernod Ricard said Thursday net results in increase in the first half of its fiscal year offset.
The consulting group Capgemini and Computer Services posted Thursday a net profit in 2010 increased 57% to 280 million euros forecast for 2011 indicating a growth in turnover of between 9 and 10%.
TF1 takes advantage of the recovery in advertising market
TF1 double its annual net profit to 229 million euros thanks to the upturn in the advertising market.The group chaired by Nonce Paolini expects a stagnation in sales 2011, after it rose 11% in 2010.
Alcatel-Lucent is confident about its prospects in the U.S. this year, based on significant contracts with major operators in the country, Verizon and Sprint Nextel, told Reuters his director of the Americas.
The European Railway Agency in March will make its technical opinion on the circulation of new types of trains through the Channel Tunnel, which will build review the Franco-britaninque responsible for settling the case, said Wednesday Thierry Mariani.
Scor announced Wednesday the sale of its fixed annuity in the United States to Athene Holding for 55 million dollars (40 million).
Saft has announced an acceleration of its business in 2011 but a slight margin decline due to one of its plant projects in the United States.
Icade intends to continue the service sector of its activities with delivery over the next several years of its pipeline projects valued at 900 million euros.
After market, Eutelsat will publish its first half results.
Opodo acquired by an investment fund? Unless dramatic turn of events is what should happen to the travel site on the Internet, offered for sale by its current owner, the Spanish Amadeus. The candidates had until Tuesday to surrender themselves to the operator of ticket reservation system. Two tenders, valuing Opodo more than 400 million euros, are clearly identified. Tuesday night, a question still hung on the willingness of rival Expedia and the quality of bank guarantees provided by the applicants.
The offers are from known three investment funds: one side the French and British Axa PE Permira together in a consortium, and the other the U.S. Carlyle. These three financial occur in this case with the faces of industrialists. In a highly fragmented industry, they know it's the size that makes the difference.Indeed, in a business where margins are low, everything is business volume. Only the largest will win, because they will be able to negotiate better purchasing terms, especially vis-à-vis the airlines.
Carlyle was positioned on the first sector. In association with Vista Capital, holds Spanish Orizonia since 2006. Orizonia and Amadeus, Opodo seller, is familiar: in 2008, the first acquired its interest in the second their compatriot, the online travel agency Rumbo.
Axa PE for its part, Go Voyages acquired last spring. The fund, chaired by Dominique Senequier, hoped in the wake swallow Edreams Spanish, offered for sale just before the summer break by TA Associates flexcheck cash advance. But the case, which turned, as the transaction Go Voyages around 300 million euros, was won by Permira. The two competitors are involved in the case Opodo.The idea being of course to bring the three champions to build Europe's number one industry. If their bid was not accepted, Axa PE and Permira would simply close and Go Travel Edreams.
Profitable since 2007
Launched in November 2001 by nine European airlines, Opodo has achieved a business volume of 1.2 billion euros between January and September. The site, which has been profitable since 2007, is one of the heavyweights in online travel in France, alongside SNCF Travel, Go Travel, Travel Private Promovacances or Lastminute. Opodo offers a wide range of benefits (package holidays, tailor-made packages, car rentals, hotel nights, vacation rentals, cruises …) but retains the heart of the business of selling airline tickets.
If Axa Private Equity and Permira to prevail, they could face a competition problem.Opodo Travel and Go in the majority on the market only flights sold by online travel agencies in France. The answer will define the size of the relevant market. Amadeus should determine the winner of the auction in the coming days.
lefigaro.fr / jdf.com – Tunis Stock Exchange is closed since last Monday. Why all this time to restart the ratings?
William Chaloin – The restart of trading of the Tunis Stock Exchange ($ 11 billion market capitalization) is more political than technical. The state wants to ensure that companies with a stake is owned by relatives of former President Ben Ali, or by itself, will not be subject to massive sales. Investors want to know if these companies are nationalized or not, and at what price.
Is it not surprising for a financial center that posted last year the fourth best market performance in Africa, to South Africa and Egypt? *
The cons-performance of the Tunis Stock Exchange are just a reflection of what's happening in the country.As the country's political situation will not be sanitized, investor wariness persists. And this is not the will of the Financial Market Council to oversee the courses that will change the trend. The Tunisian stock index reached a high point last September 30 to 5681.39 points and began to decline with the first events of October .**
Is there a risk of contagion effects?
The main countries that could be affected by a contagion effect are Egypt and Morocco. But the major Egyptian companies are very international, as Orascom Construction Industries, which is present in 20 countries across the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia. As for Morocco, unlike Tunisia, it has substantial natural resource wealth.This is notably the largest exporter of phosphates in the world with strong demand from China is not ready to dry up
What he lacks in Tunis Stock Exchange to be as important as that of Cairo (79 billion market capitalization) or Casablanca (72 billion)?
The Tunisian financial market is not open enough to foreign investors and capital sides are held primarily by Ben Ali and his relatives. As an anecdote, a company like McDonald's was not established in Tunisia because she refused to follow the "diktat" imposed by Ben Ali's family, that any foreign company that wanted to locate in the country should subject to a holding bin Ali clan paydayloan.In this context, the downward trend should be sustained for Tunis Stock Exchange.
Conversely, what are the advantages of the Cairo Stock Exchange?
The Cairo Stock Exchange has the advantage of having a clearing house, ie an intermediary between buyers and sellers. This allows authorities to know who buys stock and sells. Every day, we know the volumes processed by foreign investors and locals. So we know that during the political crisis in Tunisia, it is foreigners who have sold more than otherwise and the premises were rather buyers.The Cairo Stock Exchange is relatively liquid and easily accessible to investors through the dual listing of some large caps in London.
What are the areas you prefer?
For Egypt, we focus on telecom infrastructure (Orascom) and financial services (Commercial International Bank). In Morocco, we have a preference for telecom (Telecom Morocco), financial services (Attijariwafa Bank) and mining (Mining Coompagnie Touissit). Libya (3 billion dollars in market capitalization), which is the financial center of rising North Africa, will be the subject of several IPOs.
Do you think that Morocco and Egypt can integrate the BRICs, like South Africa?
It's still early. I'd rather see Nigeria.But what is certain is that countries continue to strengthen their partnerships with China, thanks to their reserves in natural resources, are likely to record very high growth. And that title, integrating the BRICs. Egypt and Morocco are on track.
* Johannesburg and Cairo are the two largest stock exchanges in Africa, with respectively 923 billion and $ 79 billion market capitalization.
** During the week of January 7 to 14, the star of the index Stock Exchange of Tunis, Tunis SE Tunindex, recorded a historic loss of 12.74% at 4552.80 points against an increase of 2 05% during the previous week.
Inflexible on inflation, reassuring on economic growth and prudent public debt crisis. Sunday dinner guest of the Grand Jury RTL-Le Figaro-LCI ", Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, gave a positive assessment of the euro. Since 1 January 1999 the euro area has created 14.2 million jobs, when the United States, whose population is of the same order of magnitude, created only 7.8 million.
Addressing skeptics, he recalled that the last opinion poll Ifop made in France, reported a 72% majority of French opposed to an output of the euro. There were no "difference between the sensibilities of right and left," he said. The Economics of Monetary Union "shows an ability to bounce higher than what was anticipated, and that since the third quarter of 2009," he said."The situation remains difficult but it is quite comforting," while acknowledging that "the crisis of sovereign risk (states) remains" in Europe, but also in all advanced countries.
Ensure price stability
While the rise in consumer prices was 2.2% over the last twelve months in the entire euro zone, Jean-Claude Trichet has held that interest rates were "appropriate to their level … We will always necessary decisions to ensure price stability, "he said. He sees no contradiction between a possible increase in rates by the ECB and growth. "We're in a market economy. Rates for two, five, ten and fifty years include inflation expectations for the future. If we ensure price stability and if it is credible, we guarantee the interest rate (market) the lowest. "He also admitted that the last digit increases in consumer prices "have almost exclusive explanation for the price of energy."
Regarding the prospects for growth in the medium term he again expressed regret that the States have not committed programs of structural reforms agreed at Lisbon in 2000, which led the European Council to commit to such reform in 2020: "France has not done enough of structural reforms and have growth potential than it is today (if she had business)." As for 35 hours, he considers "that greater flexibility is needed."
On the euro, he believes "there is no currency crisis as such, but difficulties more or less important for states to finance it.The European Financial Stability Fund, established last spring, "must be improved in quantity and quality to be as flexible as possible," he observed.
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