Wednesday afternoon, France is officially under the seal of "under budget". Unofficially, it is the rigor that is installed. The Greek crisis of July and the reaction of the markets in August precipitated decisions. Without waiting for the draft budget law for 2012 presented in September, the Hexagon has taken the lead in the face of nervous markets, which scan the microscope evolution curves finances.
After speaking with the social partners, having examined the proposals of the budget minister, Valérie Pécresse, and his colleague of Economy, Baroin, and after a final meeting Wednesday with arbitration the head of state, Francois Fillon will detail the efforts needed for France to respect its commitments.
Paris has in fact promised to bring its public deficit of 5.7% of GDP this year to 4.6% next year and 3% in 2013.Objectives "soft," insists the Prime Minister. And have become even more complicated to keep that growth, which has a breathing hole world in recent months, could not keep its promises. First equation to solve for the executive, what new growth assumption adopted for next year? Currently set at 2.25%, it could be lowered around 2% but the final decision will be refereed by Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday.
Whatever the figure used is a real austerity to be announced in the wake. The principle consists in an "effort equitably distributed among the wealthy households and the less affluent, but also between large companies and small companies," says Is there at Bercy.According to the Social Partners to Fillon who spoke Monday night, the government prepares to announce 3 to 4 billion in savings for 2011 – an order of magnitude as the Department's budget did not confirm Tuesday – and about ten billion 2012.
Precautionary reserves
This effort will break down between cuts on spending and tax measures. Regarding the latter aspect, the government does not lack ideas.Changing the tax exemption of overtime, tax on higher income, higher social package for businesses, real decrease in certain benefits … "In our sorrow, we have the advantage of having an incredible addition to spending, wealthy in some cases, "explained Baroin, mid-August, citing a total of 75 billion euros of tax loopholes and $ 45 billion social niches.
On the expenditure side, Bercy asked departments to provide an extra effort this year. The reason: the frigate affair of Taiwan, which requires the state to pay 460 million euros.To avoid this expenditure is widening the gap, saving the same amount will be made.
More precisely, the departments may not use funds they have traditionally used to spend at year end by drawing on reserves of precaution put in place earlier this year. Defense will be particularly drawn upon.
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The Italian government, which has set a target to stop the speculative pressures of markets on Friday adopted an emergency order providing for a new austerity plan amounted to 45 billion euros over two years. These austerity measures designed to recover "20 billion euros in 2012 and 25 billion in 2013." Their adoption will enable Italy to cancel its public deficit to 3.9% today – by the end of 2013.
For the first time, the prime minister has agreed to weigh the tax burden with a "solidarity tax" on higher incomes. According to leaks distilled by the social partners, this contribution could rise to 5% for every € 10,000 for employees earning over 90,000 euros, and 10% in excess of 150,000 euros. Self-employed workers earning more than EUR 55,000 will be taxed at 41%. However estates and housing will remain free of taxation.A single tax of 20% will be charged on income from capital, currently 12.5% against and 25% of bank deposits. The introduction of fiscal federalism will be early in 2012, the government hopes to make them more aggressive fight against tax evasion us fast cash. The bill payments in cash will be severely restricted. A single municipal tax will also be created.Finally, the Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said, in an interview with representatives of regional and local authorities, that the government intended "to reduce the number of provinces (departments)" and "consolidate the common" – today the number of 8000.
Heavy sacrifices will be required to Italians in particular with regard to the welfare (social services and family) who will suffer next year the bulk of the effort (about 20 billion euros) all levels of social assistance and transfers to local governments will be affected. However the Northern League had opposed the cuts, pensions will be spared. Women in the private sector will be encouraged to continue working until age 65, or 7 years older than today.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could not pick a worse day to name its new CEO. While the Greek Parliament is preparing to accept or reject the austerity plan imposed on the country, Greece went on strike for 48 hours. "We are on the verge of seeing someone who is very well supported. It is very important because this institution is facing many challenges. " Treasury Secretary of the United States Timothy Geithner does not believe so to speak.
Greek debt crisis
First pressing issue, the debt of Greece. Despite a support plan of 110 billion euros, which should be accompanied by another rescue in the same amount, the country can not get out of the crisis. The new CEO will have to prove to the Member States that the country can recover from the economic crisis and budget where it sank."In Greece, there is no debate, said Marc Fiorentino, president of Euroland Finance. The restructuring is inevitable. It remains to know when the plan will be implemented. Germany is to decide. The IMF has a role of 'follower'. " For now, financial markets seem to believe in a positive vote of the Greek Parliament and even the backup plan for Europe if it fails.
Marc Fiorentino, the IMF's main task will be to prevent the problems of Spain and Italy by austerity. Is not that what has already been done for Greece? "Yes, but Spain is more credible than Greece. The scope of the IMF will be more important. "
Consequences of the "Arab Spring"
The other issue facing the new flagship is the Director of revolts followed in the Arab world.Member States have asked the IMF to pay "special attention" to the economic impact of these revolutions. . Among the Arab countries, Egypt. After asking at the beginning of June the IMF prepared a three to four billion euros, the country has finally given up the aid. "This decision is political, says Marc Fiorentino. The government can not 'sell' five years of rigor as the country lives in a dream after having 'won' the revolution. The IMF should adopt a more discourse-oriented investment and less to the rigor. " With the World Bank, the Fund must thus coordinate international financial assistance for Egypt, Tunisia and other countries possible. The country may need 10 to $ 12 billion by June 2012.
Solving the "war of exchange rates"
The IMF should review in the fall as part of its surveillance of exchange rates, that does not meet many people. The new CEO will have to find difficult compromises between China, which wishes to conduct its exchange rate policy as it sees fit, and those who want the Fund crack down against a large Member State with a currency significantly undervalued. "I do not believe in the currency war is permanent. This will be more difficult than Christine Lagarde owes much to China. "
Keep its promises to China
If Christine Lagarde was appointed patron of the International Monetary Fund, it is indeed in large part to China, which has formalized its support Monday for the future ex-finance minister. Until then, the country had always refused to speak publicly on the subject.While emerging countries vied for the position, arguing that they were promised in the appointment of Dominique Strauss-Kahn in 2007, they finally resigned to make way for a European to better manage the debt crisis in the euro area. Probably not without a negotiated compensation. "Christine Lagarde had to make concessions vis-à-vis emerging markets and particularly vis-à-vis China, says Marc Fiorentino. She had no choice. " She has promised to increase the voting rights with the IMF of 6.19% to 6.4% and "include Chinese representatives." Vice-president of the institution and may return to Beijing.
It is not clear that Europe and the United States this agreement are a very good eye. The margins of maneuver Christine Lagarde did not they could be reduced? "She has a great culture of consensus and coordinate economic zones knows them.She certainly has a European profile but is also open to the Anglo-Saxon world, "says Marc Fiorentino.
This is an internal document particularly embarrassing for PSA Peugeot Citroen has revealed to the press the CGT, Thursday morning. While the band prides itself on being the "good student" automakers, Renault face, producing more in France, this policy brief program does nothing less than the closure in 2014 the site of Aulnay-sous Bois, one of the largest employers in Seine-Saint-Denis with 3600 employees and is considering the site Sevelnord at Hourdain, North (2800 employees). Evidence that the government takes the matter seriously, Philippe Varin, the boss of the group, was convened Thursday night at Bercy by the Minister of Industry, Eric Besson, a head-to-head. "
The group is obviously not expected that this confidential document was made public.But unfortunately he found, after a bad manipulation, free access to a computer server manufacturer.
Click image for larger graphic.
The four-page report, called the "secret plan Philippe Varin" by the CGT, was written by two senior executive industrial August 23, 2010. Its purpose was to improve the competitiveness of European sites in 2020 and was to be presented to the general management committee (CDG) on September 8 and the strategic committee of the supervisory board on September 28.
In this note, PSA identifies several mechanisms to "drastically reduce" the "cost of manufacture" on small vehicles by 2020. And so the group plans to reorganize its industrial French.Stating that it is a "recall of decisions emanating from the steering committee group in January 2010," the authors point out that he was "determined an adjustment capability of 200,000 vehicles with an emphasis on site of Aulnay .
Not well seen by the Elysee
About this site, which manufactures the C3 – the best selling car by Citroen – the "social plan" is planned for 2013, and "stop", "Current 2014". "This schedule is consistent with the guidelines of the CDG in January 2010 placing the window listing possible, in the French electoral calendar, in the second half of 2012, the company said, aware that a plant closing announcement would not particularly well seen by the Elysee by the presidential election guaranteed online personal loans.The plant's production fell to 195,000 in 2010, against 418,000 vehicles in 2004 (and 6200 workers), according to the CGT.
Beyond the reductions of fixed costs, estimated at 68 million euros per year, the land transfer, "estimated at 300 million euros", "allows a return on investment of less than ten years." Meanwhile, the increase rates in Poissy, which has become "one major hub in the Paris region, and in Mulhouse, in order to increase the utilization rate of these plants.
About equally explosive, PSA is also considering writing the closure of the Sevelnord – where the partnership with Fiat will stop – in 2015. Under this scenario, the production of large MPV is tilted at the latest within four years, to a low-cost countries.The other option is to maintain the site in exchange for public subsidies.
Aulnay Sevelnord but Madrid are described as sites "away from the criteria of excellence" of the group in terms of logistics, "Urban Environment" and "social costs".
In his defense, the group said, speaking through its industrial manager, Denis Martin, note that the CGT was unveiled by a document "preparatory" now "obsolete" because it "corresponds to a situation of early 2010. The closure of Aulnay "is not relevant today," he stressed, adding that on all the sites he could not comment on the sustainability beyond the horizon " 12 to 18 months. " This does not exclude a close after this period.A central committee (IAC) will be held exceptionally in the coming days on this subject.
According to Jean-Pierre Mercier, Steward Aulnay CGT, the largest employer of the department, "that we live in the plant proves that management carries out its plan for several months with the arrest of a night shift at Aulnay and its inception in Poissy. "
The shock wave continues to sweep Fukushima Europe's energy. While Switzerland has announced its nuclear phase-out, Germany specifies how the final cessation of its 17 reactors, her 7 oldest already being put off since the reversal of Angela Merkel.
On 6 June that the ruling coalition in Berlin to present its draft law on the date of the release of nuclear energy. The Ethics Commission was commissioned by the Chancellor gave his opinion: Germany should abandon nuclear power within ten years.A position to resume its behalf by the head of the Bavarian Christian Democrats, allies of the CDU Angela Merkel, during long and tough negotiations this weekend, amid new anti-nuclear demonstration.
Threat of blackout
Is that the pro-nuclear industry in mind, threatening the country with a blackout or an exorbitant cost in case of renunciation too fast for nuclear power plants. Energy-intensive factories will be in trouble, warns the Association of Industrial Energy. According to Bild, the government expects an output cost of an atom of 16 billion euros by 2015, while the overall figure of 40 billion euro circulates in the CDU documents cited by the Süddeutsche Zeitung .
In Italy, Silvio Berlusconi's government, which provided early in the year to revive the nuclear arrested in 1987, has also backtracked.He earned the confidence last Tuesday in Parliament on a gel for a year or two atomic projects.
In France, where nuclear has provided in 2010 about 74% of electricity, its place in the energy mix should be widely debated during the presidential campaign. In this context, the Government has entrusted to the Court of Auditors an audit on the cost of nuclear power, future decommissioning, waste management and additional costs of security including post-Fukushima.The Prime Minister asked to "gather the relevant questions of economists as associations of environmental protection, but they denounce expertise not pluralistic.
Completely new, reflecting the effect Fukushima in the country's most nuclear-armed world, the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (DGEC) asked its experts to calculate the impact on the electricity bill and releases CO2 down 5% from nuclear. Response in September.
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The good news on growth, announced Thursday night by François Fillon and Christine Lagarde, has been confirmed on Friday morning. The business grew by 1% over the first three months of the year, INSEE said on Friday. This figure far exceeds expectations, provides a growth of about 2% over the year, according to government projections.
"To temper the enthusiasm," says Jean-Paul Betbèze, head of research at Credit Agricole, "the second quarter will be lower with the repercussions of rising oil prices." Soaring gasoline prices could indeed stopping the household budget, which would reduce their consumption accordingly. And the good first quarter figures hide some reasons to remain cautious for the remainder of the year.
The French consume more
Household consumption accelerated slightly, to +0.6% against +0.4% in the last three months of 2010.Positive: Spending on services rebounded sharply (+0.7% -0.1%). On the other hand, "the consumption of manufactured goods remained strong (+0.8% after +0.9%), despite the slowdown in auto purchases," notes INSEE. Downside: Some consumer spending due to the recent effects of scrapping. In addition, "household investment declined (-0.3%) which tends to give credence to the theory of a cold snap in the housing market," said Alexander Law, chief economist at Xerfi.
Plants accelerate the pace
Industrial production has accelerated markedly (+1.6% after +0.3%). Positive: "Manufacturing is the largest of the last thirty years" (+3.4% after +0.7%), INSEE said.Downside: This excellent figure is explained in large part by a catch-up effect that will not happen again in the coming months, namely "the rebound in production of refined products, after the social movements at the end of last year" ( +24.7% -17.6% after), says the National Institute of Statistics.
Investment recovery
One positive growth in business investment has more than doubled, from 0.5% at end 2010 to 1.1% in early 2011. Leave government investment also increased (+1%, after -1.4%). Downside: It is, as regards public investment, a catch-up effect, with the revival of construction sites encumbered by bad weather in late 2010.From the public side, "while corporate loans are modest, the resumption of investment suggests a deterioration of the financial capacity of companies," Natixis analysis.
Growth Stocks
Replenishment of stocks by enterprises: it has contributed 70% growth, down 0.3 points after the end of 2010. One positive trend should continue in the coming months, according to economists at BNP Paribas. Negative point: The reconstitution of stocks by companies, boosting imports, widening the trade deficit French.
Foreign trade still lags behind
Positive: exports have accelerated (+1.4% after +0.3%). Downside: Imports grew even faster in value (+2.7% after -0.7%) due to higher oil bill in France due to soaring prices.Result, "the trade balance deteriorates and contributes 0.4 points to changes in activity (after +0.3 point), according to Insee.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) wants cautious. While the Portuguese prime minister resigned, Jose Socrates, said Tuesday night that sealed a "good agreement" with the delegations of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, the international organization said that the opposition has yet to agree .
In fact, using 78 billion over three years granted by the tandem European Union and IMF is not without consideration. In exchange for this support, the EU and the IMF require an "adjustment program" consisting of austerity measures "ambitious" and structural reforms involving the major parties beyond the next parliamentary elections of June 5 The agreement with the current Prime Minister has resigned is not enough. It will be supported by the main opposition parties.A spokesman for the IMF confirmed yesterday it had signed a technical agreement with the Portuguese government on a comprehensive economic agenda also said: "We said from the beginning that it is important that any program can receive a broader support of parties and we will continue our discussions with opposition parties to achieve it. "
Portuguese Prime Minister had announced earlier in the evening the conclusion of an agreement to support a $ 78 billion over three years. José Socrates had indicated that his country is committed to gradually reduce the deficit to 5.9% of GDP this year, 4.5% in 2012 and 3% in 2013. Portugal had previously committed to reduce its deficit to 4.6% this year to 3% in 2012 and 2% in 2013. The imbalance of Portuguese public accounts in 2010 amounted to 9.1% of GDP, well beyond the target of 7.3% from the government.But he said he could not reveal "a lot of details" on measures that Portugal will commit to implement in exchange for this budget, because they must still be "consultation "with opposition parties.
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The resignation Monday of Patrick Pelata, deputy CEO of Renault, has not put an end to the crisis triggered last January 3 by the unfounded dismissal of three executives of the manufacturer for a false espionage. Some observers fear that his departure will have consequences in the functioning of the enterprise. "Without the controls Patrick Pelata, Renault's strategic plan in February could be disrupted or postponed for six months to a year," judge and Florent Couvreur, analyst at CM-CIC Securities. He is not alone in worrying: Tuesday, Renault shares fell 3.17%, 2.21% after the previous day.
In the labor movement, the reactions are negative, especially before the absolution granted to Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Diamond brand. "When you're number one, we must assume.To Mr. Ghosn to decide, "said Jean-Claude Mailly, secretary general of the Workers Force. Same story on the side of employers: "There are times when we are many entrepreneurs do not recognize ourselves in the behavior of some of them", for its part, said Laurence Parisot, President Medef to without naming the president of Renault.
Patrick Pelata will manage the Japanese crisis
The criticism of Carlos Ghosn has more weight than the boss of Renault was widely exposed, especially from log 20 hours of TF1 to assert that the evidence involving the three executives were "multiplesJe urges me to laugh at everything for fear of being obliged to weep."
Logically, the audit report commissioned to understand how this case could take up so much steam highlights the role of Patrick Pelata payday loans.Yet some point out, the two other steering committee members involved – the Christian Legal Director and Secretary General Husson Laurence Dors – depended Carlos Ghosn, and not his right arm. Even as the Chief Operating Officer oversaw, directly or indirectly, 18 of the 24 members of the steering committee.
The departure of four key leaders of Renault (counting Michel Balthazar, one of the executives who unjustly blamed not return to the company) will necessarily be difficult to manage operationally. Especially as replacements will not happen quickly. "Patrick Pelata will remain in office for another few weeks.There is a crisis to manage because of the disaster in Japan and he'll manage, "said a spokesman for the manufacturer.
The financial implications are however easier to absorb, even if they are not negligible. The four victims of the case managers (the three laid off January 3 and he fired in late 2009) will be compensated, even if two of them go back into the business. In total, these benefits are expected to cost around 8 million euros to Renault. However, an amount that will be covered by bonuses and stock options which have given Carlos Ghosn, Patrick Pelata and all officers implicated by name in the audit.
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The unions had already brandished the threat late March. They have implemented, calling all employees hypermarket distribution group to strike on Saturday to protest against including salary increases for 2011, considered insufficient. The appeal, launched by the FGTA-FP, the majority union at Carrefour (with 40% representation), is supported by the CGT, CFDT and CGC.
In total, the 65,000 employees of the French distribution group are known not to work and show around the shops this Saturday, the day the traditional busy in hypermarkets. Early estimates labor, the movement is widely followed in more than 200 superstores supermarket group. Over thirty sites are completely blocked, workers blocking access to supermarkets.Even when they are not blocked, the strike rate range from 30% to 85% as estimated by Dejan Terglav, general secretary of the FO-FGTA reported in the AFP. When contacted, the management of Carrefour has not confirmed those numbers, always carrying an inventory of mobilization, and ensuring that all supermarkets were open.
From yesterday, union officials expected a high rate of mobilization of employees in a group unaccustomed to large-scale social movements. An impression confirmed Saturday morning. "It's a movement that looks quite memorable. It is widely followed, "said Franck Gaulin, Steward central CGT. Jean-Claude Mailly, secretary general of the Workers' Force (FOR), came to support the movement this morning on the website of Le Mans, on strike for 80%. "People want a redistribution within companies.When companies are unwilling to do that, there is a strike, "said union leader, also claims that" a device to make compulsory the transport allowance in all enterprises. "
Insufficient wage increase
While management offers its employees a 1% increase in wages to March 1 and another 1% increase on 1 October, union officials estimate that these increases do not cover inflation announced by 2%. "It does in fact represents only 1% over the year," says a leaflet distributed by the FGTA-FO.Even the promise of recovery to 10% (against 7% previously) discounts on purchases of stores, and the announcement of the reopening of negotiations next Wednesday, will not suffice to bring back the union leaders on their decision.
Moreover, the malaise is becoming stronger on the side of employees on the deteriorating conditions of employment and new working methods since the arrival at the head of the group of Swedish Lars Olofsson, in January 2009.
Opposition to the plans of division
While President Nicolas Sarkozy on Thursday expressed its willingness to link salaries to dividends, the unions could ask for more support for their speeches.For beyond wage increases claimed, employees believe that the demerger proposal by listing the subsidiary Dia hard discount and the 25% of Carrefour Property land would bring six billion euros to the two main shareholders, Bernard Arnault and Colony Capital (14% stake and 20% of voting rights between them).
In the words of Dejan Terglav, secretary general of the FGTA-FO, reported in Les Echos this Friday, the organization also wants the Mutual Fund Business (CIPF) 'vote against the division (during the next meeting June 21 di ed.) CIPF owns approximately 1.33% of the shares but the double voting rights "said the union leader. Bringing to nearly 4% the number of shareholders opposed the project, with the fund Knight Vinke (more than 1% of capital).But for now insufficient to meet a third of votes needed to derail the project.
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Traffic has become so complicated in Beijing, that the 12th Five Year Plan City (2011-2015) suggests that people "to live near their workplace to avoid congestion." Growth of 35% of the Chinese automotive market in 2010 has alarmed the Chinese authorities, who decided to limit fleet growth in the municipalities of East China (Beijing, Shanghai) this year by eliminating incentives for the purchase small cars.
However, analysts predict this year 10% to 15% growth for the automotive market. "The real question is whether this growth can ultimately provide a potential sale of 30 to 40 million units, vehicles and individuals alike," said Philippe Couderc, a partner at audit firm PwC Consulting.In one study, PwC discusses the difficulties of a political, social and economic, which will face the sector in the Middle Kingdom that qualify, however, that "the potential demand in China remains quite strong, given the disparities of the car density by Region. "
A slowdown is already visible in Beijing
According to figures announced by the China Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM), sales of vehicles in China rose 9.71% to 3.16 million units during the first two months of 2011, compared to the same period last year. For passenger cars, the increase is even slightly higher (+10.5% to 2.5 million units). But compared to last year, this growth is down (-30%).According to CAAM, this decline would be more related to the cancellation of incentives adopted in 2009 by the Chinese government for the purchase of new vehicles. From 1 January 2011, the Ministry of Finance of the PRC has imposed a 10% tax on vehicles with engines of 1.6 liter or smaller engine.
The automobile market in the Chinese capital was also cooled by the announcement earlier this year of regulations aimed at limiting the number of new vehicles. Now the Department of Transportation in the city of Beijing will choose each month among the 20,000 cases filed applications for registration on its site to address them. In 2010, the same number of vehicles was recorded on average each week in the capital! "The backlash suffered by our industry seems inevitable," says a commin Xingya Feng, deputy director general of the Guangzhou branch of Toyota payday advance."We are expecting a sales decline of up to 70%.
Beijing, representing only 5% of the Chinese automotive market is not the only city to have introduced these measures limiting. In Shanghai, where the average wage is about 3,400 Chinese yuan (a little over 340 euros) per month, the license plates are auctioned since 2008, selling between 40,000 and 50,000 yuan (4000 to 5000 euros). This limits the number of new cars registered nearly 8,500 a month. Other measures to reduce the introduction of new vehicles in the coastal cities are expected during this year, according to PwC.
At the conquest of other Chinese regions
However, specialists and manufacturers are optimistic about the outlook for the automotive industry.
The German group Volkswagen, number two in China after General Motors increased its sales by 37% in 2010 to over 1.9 million vehicles and plans to invest 10.6 billion euros between 2011 and 2015 to strengthen its position in the Chinese market. "While the automotive market will decelerate in 2011, we expect a good performance in the years to come," said Karl-Thomas Neumann, CEO of Volkswagen Group China. The group has embarked on building a new plant in Yizheng (Jiangsu Province), which will be operational in 2013 and show an annual production of 300,000 vehicles.
PSA Peugeot Citroen, which produced and sold just over 360,000 vehicles in 2010 on the site of the Dongfeng plant in Wuhan (Hubei Province), remains optimistic about this year.French producer, who holds 3.3% of the Chinese auto market, is the 8% by 2015 and plans to build two assembly lines for cars in the Citroen car factory in Shenzhen Chang'an ( Guangdong Province).
"The automotive industry in China is also a way to show it belongs to a social class," says an industry expert on the Chinese automotive website CAAM. "Where such a desire of Chinese consumers to buy a car." Over the past 60 years, the length of roads in China has multiplied by 46, reaching 65,000 km in 2010.
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