"The Great Recession does not amount to a great vacation," says Professor Erik Hurst, University of Chicago, who with two other economists Mark Aguiar and Loukas Karabarbounis, conducted a study on "the use of time during recessions "(Time use DURING recessions, NBER).
Of the 260 million hours a week lost in the labor market between January 2007 and December 2010, some 92 million, over a third were employed in domestic work and child care. These figures come from the annual survey of the Federal Administration (Bureau of Labor) on how Americans spend their days.
The clouds are gathering on the French economy. The Bank of France has released its forecast on Wednesday morning for the fourth quarter: it expects zero growth over the period. It has not changed its latest estimate for the third quarter from 0.1% growth. "The projections show a continuation of the activity to maintain its current level," said she.
The monetary institution observes that the business climate has deteriorated slightly in October in the industry (-1 point 96) and in services (1 point 95). In industry, the factories do not increase the use of production capacity. In addition, the order books are somewhat empty. In services, "the outlook is geared towards a stable activity in the short term," analyzes the Bank of France us fast cash.
The monthly survey of the Bank of France confirmed the slowdown in growth by some economists. In view of the evidence advanced PMI, France would be even already in recession, say the economists at JPMorgan. Another U.S. institution, BofA Merrill Lynch, believes that France is expected to decline 0.3% of its activity in the fourth quarter compared to the previous one, and not resume growth until late 2012.
So, if the average of analysts' forecasts remains at 0.9% growth for the euro area in 2012, large banks have seen their shelves these days. On the downside. Exane BNP Paribas has drastically revised its analysis and expects zero growth next year to France, while in September it still expects growth of 1%.
However there will be a single new domestic or international flight anywhere in the world. "Qantas said its employees will be denied access to the company as of Monday morning.
Faced with a large section of its employees challenging the group's policy, management of the company has chosen the hard way to break the impasse. Calling itself the decision "incredible", Alan Joyce, Qantas's boss, said that "the aircraft will be grounded as long as necessary for the situation to an end," at a conference Press convened a hurry on Saturday. No way for him to accede to the request of trade unions, which he said, "Qantas would destroy the long term."
Retrenchment and redeployment in Asia
What technicians, ground staff and pilots claim, it is mainly wage increases.
Back to the wall, the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, had to consent, on Sunday during an extraordinary Council of Ministers, new sacrifices. He acknowledged that the prospects of the Greek economy is still terrible, well below expectations in any case, the troika formed by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF.
For 2011, the Greek government had already recognized that the deficit could not be reduced to the initial target of 7.6% of GDP: this will ultimately be 8.5%, a "hole" of 18.7 billion euros. For next year, the forecast is 6.8% or even 14.6 billion euros spent too (against a deficit of 6.5% planned in the plan concocted by his creditors).Difficult, indeed, to restore the country's finances when the recession is severe: 5.5% contraction in 2011 and another 2% expected next year.
30 000 employees laid off
In response, George Papandreou has put together a budget under the sign of austerity providing a saving of 6.6 billion euros in 2011 and 2012. This draft must be submitted to Parliament today.
Under pressure from the troika of envoys in Athens for four days, and on the eve of the Eurogroup, Luxembourg, the Greek government wants to show his voluntarism in order to obtain payment of an $ 8 billion of loans on the 110 billion allocated by the countries of the euro area and the IMF."As we make these decisions so difficult and that the Greek people made such great sacrifices, yes, the sixth installment is assured," said the Sunday newspaper To Vima the finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos free credit score online.
In particular, very unpopular decision in a country where the employment of public employees is guaranteed for life by the Constitution, the government decided to set the layoffs of 30,000 employees close to retirement by the end of the years. These employees "set aside" will be paid 60% of their wages, before being fired after one year. Social discontent swells accordingly. Public transport again observe a work stoppage this afternoon, before the strike of the entire civil service and state agencies and the general strike Wednesday 19 October.One in five employees in Greece is official.
German debate
While surveys conducted in the country reveal that two out of three Greeks want to stay in the euro area, the debate rebounded this weekend after the statements of one of the allies of Angela Merkel. "I think a solution, if we want Greece again become competitive in a stable manner is that it does so outside the euro area," said Alexander Dobrindt a radio, the general secretary of the CSU. Thursday, Philipp Rösler, the German Minister of Economy, will be in Athens for talks with his Greek counterparts.
The capital is always full of visitors. While George Papandreou received Saturday the Emir of Qatar's sovereign wealth fund Qatar Holdings has committed to invest $ 1 billion in operating a gold mine in Greece.
The European aid to Greece drags on and the markets may punish him on Monday. Having completed an eventful week in the red, but after still won by 2% in five days, the CAC 40 is expected down 1.7% at the opening on Monday, according to Reuters.
Concerns about the hypothesis of a failure of Greece are likely to weigh even the morale of investors, like those of Asian stock markets on Monday. Friday and Saturday together in Wroclaw, Poland, EU finance ministers have decided to postpone their decision in October on a loan of 8 billion euros in Athens, pending the outcome of a "troika" of the state progress of promised reforms.In addition, they have made little progress on the second aid plan for Greece, nearly 160 billion euros including the private sector, pledged in principle last July 21. Greece should show its good will, while his government is accused of delay in implementing measures to reduce the deficit. This Sunday, Athens has announced in the wake of new economies to reassure its European partners.
It must be said that in Europe, solidarity with Greece began to annoy the majority of people. Evidenced by this poll Ifop for Sunday Ouest France, which states that 68% of the French disapprove of the increase in French contribution to the rescue of Athens.And while "divisions" have emerged among governments and the European Central Bank, as noted by Timothy Geithner, U.S. Treasury Secretary, on the sidelines of the meeting of European finance ministers that he was invited .
To fill a deficit in the U.S. To this must be added the concerns about the U.S. economy, which pose a risk to global growth. Markets await including many of the plan for the use of 447 billion dollars of Barack Obama. The U.S. president, anxious to see his program pushed by Congress, has called this weekend to support the Republicans, to avoid "dead end". Moreover, he warned the Americans Saturday that they would provide "pull their weight" to reduce the country's budget deficit, while the United States must find 1.2 trillion dollars in savings by the end of the year.Thus, Barack Obama will propose to Congress Monday a tax on the income of taxpayers earning over a million dollars a year.
Analysts and investors are also awaiting a meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday and Wednesday on interest rates in the United States. The feeling now is that the U.S. central bank will launch a new version of "Operation Twist" program to exert downward pressure on interest rates over time. Such a prospect would be a tasteful for scholarships, especially as the Fed pledged to keep rates low until mid-2013 at least.
Macroeconomic side, Great Britain, the Financial Times this fall could be a gap of 13.8 billion euros in public finances, or 25% more than expected.Such an amount would extend the austerity policies adopted in Britain.
United States, the NAHB housing index will be released in 16 hours.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro appears sharply lower at 1.366 dollar (-0.94%) on Monday morning. Oil prices are also in the red in Asia, with uncertainty about the U.S. economy and the delay in the euro area in the management of the Greek crisis. In early electronic trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery gave up $ 1.12 to 86.84 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery gave 81 cents to 111.41 dollars .
Values to follow
• Banks
Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas will be particularly scrutinized by investors on Monday.Doubts about their strength threatens the economy by depressing household and pushing companies to delay their hiring and investment, analysts and professionals. French banks have agreed to exchange more than 90% of Greek bonds they currently hold in the second aid package to Greece decided in late July, said Friday the Minister of Economy, Baroin.
• EADS
Qatar is interested in buying Daimler a 7.5% stake in EADS, according to the enactment of Der Spiegel Sunday.
• Technip
The group said it had been awarded by a contract Petobras provision of basic engineering and detailed design for a new fertilizer complex to be located in Uberaba, in Minas Gerais, Brazil.
• Sanofi
The pharmaceutical giant said Monday it has obtained from the American justice the right to maintain exclusivity until August 2012 U.S. sales of Eloxatin, a drug against colorectal cancers.
• Natixis and Saffron
The bank released the CAC 40, replaced by the industrial and technology group, previously listed on the SBF 120.
• Airbus
The European aircraft manufacturer will present its global market forecast to 2030 in London.
From our special correspondent in Wroclaw.
The Europeans hoped "a dialogue between friends," the Americans had "no arrogance." Las. With the destabilization of markets and growing concern on both sides of the Atlantic, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, could not resist lecturing his seventeen counterparts in the euro area gathered Friday to Wroclaw (Poland).
The relief provided by five central banks – including the U.S. Fed – banks in the euro area will not long concealed the absence of concerted policy response to the crisis. On behalf of the Europeans, the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker declined projects Tim Geithner, citing "differences in approach with our American colleagues."Treasury Secretary, he has put his finger where the euro hurts: he publicly expressed concern "of the conflict between governments and the European Central Bank," a week after the sensational resignation of the Chief Economist of the ECB .
Barack Obama's America, soon launched a presidential campaign, fearing a collapse of Greece, a contagion to European banks and a possible fracture of the euro area. If the crisis deepens, it is the U.S. economy would suffer the backlash, shock reverse of that which had hit Europe after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The first message in Washing-ton is to push the Europeans to speak with one voice and act decisively. "Governments and the Central Bank should work together (…) to avoid catastrophic risks for financial markets," said Treasury Secretary.And he insists, denouncing the cacophony that destabilizes the common currency: "Everyone should also abstain from loose talk about the end of the euro area." Targeted: the proponents of expulsion from Greece …
Denial of a tax on financial transactions
The unprecedented invitation launched by Poland – host country because currently presiding the EU – Timothy Geithner had anything to embarrass, in turmoil, the finance ministers of the euro. We saw Baroin host the head of U.S. Treasury of a strong handshake in Wroclaw. But the Euro has carefully kept at a distance. He has not formally participated in the circle, but a "preliminary conversation" about an hour. Contrary to custom, he did not sent to journalists.To tell his truths to Europe, he preferred an audience of bankers in another part of town.
Some did not take gloves to say that Europe has no lessons to learn. The United States, collapsing under the deficits should put their own house, says the Belgian Didier Reynders. "America has nothing to dictate when the person refuses flatly our suggestions," added the Austrian Maria Fekter. It is true that Tim Geithner repeated Friday his opposition front to the tax on financial transactions carried to Paris, Berlin and Brussels.
Decisions deferred
For the second time in eight days, Treasury Secretary left Europe empty-handed. Friday, the Europeans have made a face at her suggestion to "leverage" means the EFSF, the bailout fund for countries of the euro in difficulty."This is not a subject that is discussed with a country outside the EU," Jean-Claude Juncker meant. Same end of inadmissibility of the American idea of supporting the growth of public funds "even a donkey does not stumble twice on the same stone, 'says Didier Reynders, convinced of the urgency to fight first against the deficits.
For the Americans as to Europeans, the European event in Wroclaw ends with a disturbing sense of incompleteness, even for emergencies. The Eurogroup has pushed to mid-October a decision on payment of 8 billion euros to Greece. He did not reach an agreement on guarantees that Finland requires Greece.
Wall Street was unable to string together a fourth consecutive session. The New York Stock Exchange opened down on Tuesday, the Dow Jones lost 0.65% to 11,408.05 points and the Nasdaq 1.18% to 2525.17 points.
Nervousness investors won again a few hours of a meeting in Paris between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The two leaders are to discuss ways to implement to improve governance in the euro area and contain the problems of sovereign debt. No decision is fundamental to expect from this meeting, warned a spokesman for Angela Merkel yesterday, let alone on the front of the Eurobonds claimed by many investors. The latter will not even up for discussion. And it is this fact which disappointed observers who expected progress on the subject.In Europe, markets are plunged into the red.
European growth disappoints
The bad mood is also expected to result from the publication of European indicators disappointing that send negative signals about the health of the euro area. Germany, European locomotive, reported a surprise slowdown and sharp growth in the second quarter. The entire euro area saw growth of 0.2% after increasing 0.8% in the first quarter.
On the positive side: the United States, industrial production came out on Tuesday rose higher than expected for the month of July. This indicator should be closely watched by the markets, as they are concerned more and more sluggish growth of the world's largest economy. The release of housing starts, however, confirmed the slump.Departures from construction sites are in fact started to fall in July, after surging in June. As for import prices, they recorded an unexpected rebound.
Values to follow
On the corporate side, Home Depot (1.51% shortly after opening at $ 33) released better than expected earnings in the second quarter, while Wal-Mart (1.74% to 51.71 dollars ) recorded a further decline in sales over the same period. The retail giant has nevertheless issued a profit and a turnover up more than 5%.
Agilent Technologies (-0.04% to 37.46 dollars) reported Monday after-hours trading from a profit of $ 330 million, or 92 cents a share, in the third quarter, up 62% The number of Business was up to 1.69 billion.
Berkshire Hathaway (-1.4% to 107.17 dollars) would have taken a stake in the retailer Dollar General.
Dell (+0.14% to 15.65 dollars) and Saks (-0.12% to 8.95 dollars) must also publish their quarterly results on Tuesday.
After a series of tests in the United States and a presentation in Europe under the Air Show at Le Bourget in June, All Nippon Airlines this week hired a campaign commercial test flights of B 787 in Japan . "The aircraft has already been tested by Boeing in the United States. Rather, it is here to check it fits well with Japanese airport infrastructure, "said a spokesman for the airline. The B787 must make several flights and ground handling at Tokyo Haneda via Kansai, Okayama and Hiroshima.
ANA, which is the company launching the new long-haul Boeing, should receive its first aircraft in August or September is more than three years behind the original schedule, which promised a first delivery in May 2008.The first two aircraft will carry a special livery combining white and blue display in the front of the unit's name in large letters. The first Dreamliner will be made available on domestic routes before being placed in service between Japan and Europe and the East Coast of the United States. ANA hopes to lead a fleet of 14 B787 by March 2012 (24 and a year later) of the 55 ordered to commence intercontinental flights no later than spring 2012.
So the final stretch for the Dreamliner.By the end of the summer, Boeing will complete the certification campaign and deliver the first aircraft and then initiate the ramp-up that should cause it to produce 10 B 787 a month in 2013 (against 2 per month in 2010 ) including seven in Everett, the birthplace of the Industrial U quick pay day loan.S. manufacturer and 3 in a new assembly plant based in Charleston, South Carolina, which opened on June 10.
Future B 787-10 announced in 2012
The stakes are high for Boeing who had not designed a new device from the B 777 in 1995. Launched in 2004, 787 B has made a commercial breakthrough with impressive 835 orders from 56 airlines. It has several technological breakthroughs including the massive use of composite materials. They represent 50% of the primary structures including the fuselage and wings of the aircraft.It also promises a fuel economy of 20% compared to legacy aircraft and new life on board passengers with innovations in the cab. B 787 family currently has two versions. The smallest, B 787-8, can carry between 210 and 250 passengers depending on version and its range is between 14 200 and 15 200 km (between 7650 and 8200 nautical miles). The largest, B 787-9, provides between 250 and 290 seats and its range reaches between 14 800 and 15 750 km.
The family may soon grow up with a B 787-10. The leaders of the Boeing discussed at the last Paris Air Show, suggesting that a formal announcement was possible in 2012. "We talked with the airlines and we have received strong expressions of interest," said Nicole Piasecki was then, Boeing vice president in charge of product strategy.With B 787-10, and Boeing could meet the future Airbus 350-1000, the largest member of the family future A 350.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could not pick a worse day to name its new CEO. While the Greek Parliament is preparing to accept or reject the austerity plan imposed on the country, Greece went on strike for 48 hours. "We are on the verge of seeing someone who is very well supported. It is very important because this institution is facing many challenges. " Treasury Secretary of the United States Timothy Geithner does not believe so to speak.
Greek debt crisis
First pressing issue, the debt of Greece. Despite a support plan of 110 billion euros, which should be accompanied by another rescue in the same amount, the country can not get out of the crisis. The new CEO will have to prove to the Member States that the country can recover from the economic crisis and budget where it sank."In Greece, there is no debate, said Marc Fiorentino, president of Euroland Finance. The restructuring is inevitable. It remains to know when the plan will be implemented. Germany is to decide. The IMF has a role of 'follower'. " For now, financial markets seem to believe in a positive vote of the Greek Parliament and even the backup plan for Europe if it fails.
Marc Fiorentino, the IMF's main task will be to prevent the problems of Spain and Italy by austerity. Is not that what has already been done for Greece? "Yes, but Spain is more credible than Greece. The scope of the IMF will be more important. "
Consequences of the "Arab Spring"
The other issue facing the new flagship is the Director of revolts followed in the Arab world.Member States have asked the IMF to pay "special attention" to the economic impact of these revolutions. . Among the Arab countries, Egypt. After asking at the beginning of June the IMF prepared a three to four billion euros, the country has finally given up the aid. "This decision is political, says Marc Fiorentino. The government can not 'sell' five years of rigor as the country lives in a dream after having 'won' the revolution. The IMF should adopt a more discourse-oriented investment and less to the rigor. " With the World Bank, the Fund must thus coordinate international financial assistance for Egypt, Tunisia and other countries possible. The country may need 10 to $ 12 billion by June 2012.
Solving the "war of exchange rates"
The IMF should review in the fall as part of its surveillance of exchange rates, that does not meet many people. The new CEO will have to find difficult compromises between China, which wishes to conduct its exchange rate policy as it sees fit, and those who want the Fund crack down against a large Member State with a currency significantly undervalued. "I do not believe in the currency war is permanent. This will be more difficult than Christine Lagarde owes much to China. "
Keep its promises to China
If Christine Lagarde was appointed patron of the International Monetary Fund, it is indeed in large part to China, which has formalized its support Monday for the future ex-finance minister. Until then, the country had always refused to speak publicly on the subject.While emerging countries vied for the position, arguing that they were promised in the appointment of Dominique Strauss-Kahn in 2007, they finally resigned to make way for a European to better manage the debt crisis in the euro area. Probably not without a negotiated compensation. "Christine Lagarde had to make concessions vis-à-vis emerging markets and particularly vis-à-vis China, says Marc Fiorentino. She had no choice. " She has promised to increase the voting rights with the IMF of 6.19% to 6.4% and "include Chinese representatives." Vice-president of the institution and may return to Beijing.
It is not clear that Europe and the United States this agreement are a very good eye. The margins of maneuver Christine Lagarde did not they could be reduced? "She has a great culture of consensus and coordinate economic zones knows them.She certainly has a European profile but is also open to the Anglo-Saxon world, "says Marc Fiorentino.
China's competitiveness is being eroded in favor of the United States. Producing in China soon will cost more than 10-15% cheaper than in the U.S. by 2015, reports a study in the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Taking into account all costs associated with transport and storage, the Chinese advantage will be reduced to less than 10% or even completely canceled, said the U.S. consulting firm. This is mainly because of the progressive narrowing of the gap between industrial wages in both countries.
BCG how he arrives at this conclusion at odds with the traditional discourse of economists? BCG has adjusted the salary cost of the two countries based on the productivity of workers, Americans are more efficient – such as better trained – than the Chinese. It also took into account the fact that the Chinese currency, the yuan will continue to rise against the dollar in the coming years.BCG analysts believe, after these adjustments, the wages in industrial cities like Shanghai or very dynamic Tianjin will be lower than 30% of those in the United States.
"Because of the lack of skilled labor in China, wages increase by 15% to 20% per year," said Harold Sirkin of Boston Consulting Group in a study published late last week. "We therefore expect that the net cost of labor in industry in China and the U.S. converge around 2015." Before concluding: "We will see many more" Made in USA "in the next five years."
Americans more productive
While China sees its labor costs rise, the U.S. productivity gain in parallel.More flexible labor code, public grants and favorable agreements negotiated with unions: "Many U.S. states, like Mississippi, South Carolina or Alabama, improve their attractiveness as centers of production to lower cost," says BCG . Some big names in American industry have recently relocated their production to the United States. Caterpillar has recently announced the expansion of a factory production of hydraulic excavators in Texas. About 500 jobs will be created. Previously, NRC had repatriated in 2009 its production of ATMs in Georgia.
Large manufacturers, however, are not going to desert China so far. Goods produced in large scale and require much labor will continue to be produced in China, recognizes BCG.It must be said that the Chinese advantage in terms of cheap labor and unskilled labor remains unparalleled. A study by the U.S. Department of Labor published in April, the average hourly wage cost of a Chinese worker in 2008 represented only 4% of that of a U.S. worker. And only 3% of average wage costs practiced in the eurozone.