The weak dollar gives momentum to the barrel
Last week, things had begun badly for oil. First S & P warns on U.S. debt. Then, the Saudi oil minister who says the market is "supplied in abundance." A statement also expressed by the secretary general of OPEC, Abdullah El Badri, during the weekend. "If OPEC is ready to say this is that there must be a lot of oil on the market," observed Rich Ilczyszyn, Lind-Waldock to justify the price decline that day, to 107.12 dollars per barrel of light sweet crude for May delivery in New York and 121.85 dollars in London.
But on Tuesday, the dollar's sharp fall came to give a fillip to trade. The U.S. currency fell to its lowest level since January 2010 against the euro, which climbed to over $ 1.46.Such movement makes the crude in dollars more attractive to buyers provided with other currencies. Prices ended the week (shortened due to Easter) to 112.29 dollars in New York (five dollars between Monday and Thursday) and 124.38 dollars in London.
This reversal of trend, which intensified throughout the rest of the week, is also due to concerns over the situation in Nigeria. The political situation is very tense in the wake of presidential elections. The outgoing Head of State Goodluck Jonathan was proclaimed winner, an announcement welcomed by deadly riots. However, the country's largest producer of black gold of the African continent. "Its oil is also a substitute for oil in Libya. If production losses in Nigeria also intervened, this would result in a shortage of high quality oil, "commented analyst at Commerzbank.
In the background, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept the risk premium allocated to oil prices. The clashes were continuing in Libya between rebels and forces loyal to leader Muammar Gaddafi, while calls to demonstrate continued in Syria and Yemen.
Base Metals
Aluminum, LME superstar
The overall weakness of the dollar pushes investors to put their money in other commodities as oil to protect against loss of value of their assets. Base metals have therefore also benefited.
Aluminum is the winner of the week. Prices went up to 2,750.25 dollars per tonne, its highest since August 2008. In addition to the weak dollar, they have benefited from the announcement by China, a halt to aluminum smelting capacity to regulate the excess production.To recall, China supplies 40% of world production.
Copper closed up to 9610.50 dollars, also carried by the fundamentals, including partial closure of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the largest in the world. Lead and nickel are also mounted, respectively, in 2669 dollars and 26,650 dollars per tonne.
Overall, all have benefited from bargain hunting after declines the previous week. Investors LME smile again while U.S. quarterly results suggest good prospects for the request.
Precious metals
Gold and silver shine a thousand lights
As for precious metals, the context is more than favorable to gold paydayloans. Dollar depreciation, inflation if oil prices rise, fears about sovereign debt: everything was done to allow the yellow metal spraying his record.This was done on Thursday with one ounce to 1509 dollars. The highly anticipated threshold of $ 1,500 has been reached and even exceeded. Two options stand thus: either investors consider this remedy as an objective in the long term, they see it as a threshold for some benefits may be recovered. The following weeks will be decisive. Meanwhile, on the London Bullion Market, gold price finished Thursday at 1504 dollars at auction in the afternoon.
In its wake, the money has jumped 8% and surpassed $ 45, the highest since 1980. Thursday ounce traded at 46.32 dollars even. What makes investors fear the emergence of a speculative bubble that is expected soon to explode. In this case, a correction to $ 38 is possible.
For their part, the PGMs were down earlier this week because of fears surrounding the automotive industry in Japan.The loss of production in factories in Japan since March 11 totaled 500,000 vehicles, and could reach one million, according to experts at the Shanghai Auto Show. The sector is also affected worldwide. Prices have bounced back this weekend, buoyed by the buying frenzy because of the weak dollar. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, an ounce of platinum finished Thursday at 1812 and an ounce of palladium ended at $ 765.
Agricultural materials
Coffee and wheat are skyrocketing
Last week, the price of coffee stood out, rising to 302.50 cents in New York, a level not seen since 1977! At issue: the prospect of reduced supply from major producing countries. In Brazil, in particular, should disrupt weather crops.In this context, and with a weak dollar, investors have not hesitated to take positions. On the NYBOT, ICE, the pound of Arabica for May delivery ended the week at 286.60 cents in New York while robusta ended at 2408 dollars in London.
Always on the side of good performances, a bushel of wheat (25 kg) for July delivery has earned 7% on the week on the Chicago Board of Trade. In the poor quality of U.S. wheat (according to the latest weekly report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, only 36% of winter wheat is considered "good" to "excellent", against 65% last year to the same period ) and the drop-off in Russia, came by the drought in several parts of the world. The weather is dry in the American plains but also in Western Europe, Canada and China.A bushel of wheat therefore ends up at 8.3475 dollars.
In contrast, maize is affected by severe disturbances in the central United States. The contract for corn rose to 7.4450 dollars, while a bushel of soybeans for July climbed to 13.8975 million.
Divorce is not yet consummated, but the employee-manager relations are deteriorating. If employees remain largely (78%) satisfied with their work, their relationships with their direct supervisor were suffering from the crisis, says a survey by BVA for the consulting firm BPI. Today, they are only 22% have a high opinion of their manager, a drop of ten percentage points from 2007.
Managerial qualities as acclaimed by employees – listening, ability to motivate, to speak the truth, to admit his mistakes, to establish a relationship of trust … – are those who, according to interviewees, most fault their superiors. Today's employees are primarily responsive to the human qualities of their leaders direct, technical expertise from the background.A survey Mediaprism Group has even tried to compare the ideal manager with an animal before the fox, the animal most often cited was a St. Bernard!
However, managers have less time to develop such qualities. "With the crisis, job cuts, local managers (ie: those that are directly related to employees) are less numerous. They therefore have less time to connect and manage "the BVA survey analysis.
"The task of managers has become more complex, confirms Olivier Herlin, a management consultant with Covenants Council. The constraints they face while increasing their capabilities stagnate or even decline guaranteed pay day loans.Increasingly, they are asked to produce indicators, dashboards, which nibble the time spent in management in the proper sense. "
Unmotivated troops
Impact: employees feel relatively little about life and their business strategy, and are increasingly reluctant to express their own opinion. According to the BVA barometer, 52% of employees feel that what they think the job might be frowned upon.
Yet the quality of the relationship established with the manager is critical to the ability of a firm to retain its best people. "We joined a company, you leave a boss," says Pascale Portères, vice president of BPI.For 75% of respondents, their supervisor plays a key role in their commitment to the company, and remains an effective lever of motivation.
A data should not be overlooked at a time when employees note with disappointment that the sacrifices made during the economic crisis will not be rewarded financially. "There's real frustration, all sectors and occupational categories combined. Employees are ever in search of recognition, analysis Pascale Portères. If managers do not know to be more attentive to their employees, I fear a worsening of the mobilization. "
While the country remains on alert this morning after a second explosion at the nuclear power plant in Fukushima Daiichi, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to take exceptional measures to counter the effects of the disaster in the economic and financial systems. The BoJ has in effect this morning to three injections of cash for a total of 15,000 billion yen, 131.2 billion euros. In addition, Market Watch, which cites the Japanese news agency Kyodo said that 3000 billion yen will be invested Extra on Wednesday. In addition, the central bank plans to buy 10 billion yen (870 million euros) of assets and corporate bonds. The institution hopes to support markets.
His intervention had immediate effect on the yen, which fell abruptly when he was mounted in the early morning.The Nikkei index of Tokyo Stock Exchange plummeted finished him sitting on a decline of 6.18%. The volume of transactions reached a historic high on Monday to the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with over 4.88 billion shares traded on the primary market, representing more than 2.5 times the average normal. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has nevertheless been valuable to rate.
Automotive and nuclear values fall
The share of the company Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), which operates nuclear plants in trouble, was particularly affected, it lost 23.57%, all holders of securities rushing to sell. The values are also among the automotive titles most penalized Mitsubishi Motors plunged 10.9% to 8.1% and Toyota. Indeed, many Japanese companies are facing serious damage on their production sites.Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Sony, Mitsubishi Motors, Suzuki, Panasonic or Toshiba have suspended their activity in one or more plants.
As for oil prices, they are on the downside on Monday in electronic trading in Asia. A barrel of Brent WTI lost nearly 2% to less than 100 dollars a barrel. The market is worried about a decline in short-term demand from Japan due to the drop in production.
The reduction of production capacity is compounded by shortages of electricity, or the closure of ports. And the idling of the country further increase the bill for the disaster. Even if the destruction of the earthquake and resulting tsunami that struck Japan on Friday remain difficult to assess, AIR Worldwide, a specialist in risk assessment, advanced at a cost of $ 34.6 billion to insurance companies.And the total score could be higher than the $ 100 billion of the Kobe earthquake in 1995, said Valerie Plagnol, director of research at Credit Suisse France, micro BFM.
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Neither starting rumors or Gaddafi talks of OPEC members (Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries) about a possible increase in production of black gold in the coming weeks have managed to fall fever markets.
After rising to 106.95 dollar Monday, its highest level since September 2008 and have lost up to $ 2 in Asia on the morning of Tuesday, a barrel of light crude was trading at 105.57 U.S. dollars the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 13 cents from the previous day.
A game of yo-yo that translates queries from operators, who do not know whether to believe or not the producing countries.Saudi Arabia, which said it could increase production by 700,000 barrels a day, finds that the offer is "very appropriate" market needs while Kuwait, the UAE and Nigeria to make talk 300,000 barrels / day extra.
These production increases are intended to compensate the Libyan supplies, which fell from 1.6 million to a million barrels per day since the crisis began. But for now, no member of OPEC does not speak officially for exceeding the quotas. "We are in consultation," merely states the Kuwaiti oil minister.
The representative of Iran, a country which chairs the cartel, however threw a famous cold snap in asserting that consumer fears are "psychological." He believes, like Qatar, inventories and production are "at an acceptable level."
For their part, the United States do nothing to calm things down when the Secretary General of the White House is suggesting, as he did last Sunday, it was conceivable that the country draws its strategic reserves. "There is no supply problem and would be a mistake" to do so, he has indirectly responded Tuesday CEO of Total, Christophe de Margerie, in Houston.
Inflationary pressures
But the business community fear that the violence in Libya and the Arab world will undermine the tentative economic recovery. "The picture is now darker for growth. We had long been considered a significant rise in oil prices in our forecasts, but their rapid and continuous gains begin to put us ill at ease, "recognize the analysts at Goldman Sachs.
They also fear a "day of anger" in Friday in Saudi Arabia that could lead to new unrest.
But they are aware that soaring crude prices, which rose from $ 86 to over 105 dollars in three weeks on the U.S. markets, is not unique in the Middle East. It also results from increased demand from large countries with strong growth such as China and India.
One more reason for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has, after the European Central Bank, sounded the alarm about the increased risks of overheating in emerging markets. Rising oil prices there is indeed aggravate inflationary pressures.
Veolia CEO since late 2009, only to orders from Henri Proglio, CEO of EDF, he left the presidency last December, Antoine Frerot Friday presented the results of group services for local communities. 2010 net income of Veolia fell by 0.5% to 581 million euros. But its revenues, driven by higher prices of recycled materials, rose 2.5% to 34.8 billion euros. Recurring operating income stood at 2.1 billion euros, up 8.5%. Veolia has also finalized with the Deposit reconciliation between its subsidiary Transport and Transdev.
Le Figaro. – How do you see 2011?
Antoine Frerot. – We are confident, after better than expected in 2010.Encouraged by the positive trend from the end of 2010 we expect further organic growth and operating profit up 4% to 8% higher by at least two points to economic conditions. Our debt will not increase. We will continue with the plan of divestment of marginal, which has already amounted to 2.5 billion in two years: 4 billion euros of assets will be sold again by the end of 2013, including $ 1.3 billion this year. And we will accelerate the cost reduction program, which was last year exceeded our expectations with savings of 265 million euros. It will grow to 300 million per annum by 2013.
And then?
I want to give back to Veolia status company for profitable growth it had before the crisis. Regarding activity, the slope is already in the right direction. Turnover was up 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2010.As the volumes of waste, the recovery is slow but confirms quarter after quarter.
Veolia how will he develop?
We must broaden our borders. We are positioned on areas of environmental services where demand is growing but supply is still scarce free credit score. In cleanliness, we will complete our network of treatment and recycling of toxic industrial waste in Europe and also in China, a country that has taken this issue head-on in the body. In water, we want to provide more support to major manufacturers in emerging countries. In energy, it is on the local production of energy from cogeneration and biomass, coupled with district heating, we will focus.
You expect acquisitions?
We rely primarily on organic growth, even if small purchases are not excluded.In three years, 6 to 7 billion euros will be earmarked for investments in our priority areas. Almost half will be allocated to contracts already signed, the other half will go to new projects.
Where is the proposed merger with EDF, Dalkia through your joint venture?
We are in the beginnings of an industrial partnership. It is too early to discuss the evolution of our partnership capital.
Is your business affected by the ongoing events in the Mediterranean countries?
No. Veolia has very little activity in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia.We are more present in Morocco and the Gulf countries.
Except for the nomination, your initiative, a unique boss at the helm, Transdev Veolia, you have not changed the management of Veolia?
I remind you that more than half the current members of the Executive Committee of Veolia was not part of a year ago and a half. Antoine Frerot, CEO of Veolia, presented Friday the group's results to local services.
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The annual results published by Vivendi, one of the last CAC 40 groups to engage in exercise, are consistent with the general trend: in good order. If the results of group communication and media are in line with expectations, Jean-Bernard Levy, chief executive, said in the statement of the group, refer to "slight growth in profits in 2011" as well as maintaining a cash dividend at a level higher than 1.40 euro. In an interview with Les Echos this morning, the officer reiterated that the group also aims to buy out minority shareholders of SFR and Canal + France "if the conditions are reasonably priced."
In 2010, the group announced a net profit up 4.4% to 2.7 billion euros, a figure in line with analysts' expectations.And net income group share, that is to say, after deducting the portion that belongs to shareholders of subsidiaries whose third group does not hold the entire capital, settled him at 2.2 billion euros , against 830 million euros in 2009, an increase of 164.8%. EBIT is also in line with analysts' forecasts of 5.7 billion euros following an increase of 6.2%.
The turnover is slightly higher than expected it: up 6.4% to 28.9 billion euros against 28.6 expected on average by specialists. Vivendi said that the increase in sales was particularly supported by the release of new video game "Call of Duty." The group added that "all professions have achieved their objectives."
Vivendi adjusts its reserves
The group also reduced from 100 million euros, 450 million against 550 million previously, the provision recorded in its accounts under the partnership proceedings initiated against the United States. An adjustment is made after the decision of a federal court to exclude the compensation procedure of the group's shareholders who acquired their shares on the Paris Bourse. Vivendi had announced he would be able to make "a significant readjustment allowance" in its 2010 accounts as a result of this ruling.
The invoice is salty. Episodes of intense snowy late 2010 have severely impacted the accounts of major retail chains across much of France, according to a study by Nielsen and Metnext, a subsidiary of Meteo France. The total cost for retailers: 380 million euros over the period of December, hypermarkets, supermarkets and hard discount for consumer products (food, maintenance, personal care, excluding fuel). In the Paris area alone, the turnover of retail brands has been cut by 100 million euros over the period.
By disrupting the activity of distributors and retail outlets attendance, bad weather had caused a loss of revenue ranging from 1% to 5%, depending on store locations (in downtown or suburban) and geographical regions."For most outlets affected by snow, loss of turnover amounted to over 2.5 million per store, all products and 1.5 million euros mass consumption in December 2010 compared to December 2009, "says Sebastian Monard, Insight manager at Nielsen.
The consumer finds the colors
However, the year 2010 has not been all black for supermarkets. Far from it. The total turnover of stores (hypermarkets, supermarkets and hard discount on the perimeter FMCG) rose 2.5% in 2010 to 88.2 billion euros, according to Nielsen. On December alone, the activity is part of the distributors also up 1% from the same month in 2009 to 7 Internet Payday loans.69 billion euros.
"The weather effects were widely dispersed and numerous stores recorded a positive balance in December, particularly in the Southwest of France," said Tom Monard. In addition, consumers were particularly "flexible" by delaying their purchases based on the acalmies between two episodes of cold and snow. The fact is that if there had been no snow this episode, the growth of the retail sector would have been higher, says the expert.
Weather, a significant economic impact
"These rare phenomena but not extreme point out that the economic impact of weather on the activity of the mass distribution is significant. He plays both the attendance by customers on their consumption pattern, "said Frederic Bardoux, president of Metnext.Thus, the number of visits to retail stores, for each household, fell 4% between December 6, 2010 and January 2, 2011, the period studied by Nielsen and Metnext. And passages in hand in hypermarkets and supermarkets have shrunk by 1.8%.
Meteo France subsidiary created for this study, a specific indicator called Metnext Winter Index (MWI) which measures the intensity, duration and persistence of winter conditions like snow or ice.
Accumulated snow indicator (MWI) of 06 December 2010 to January 2, 2011. Source: Metnex.
French banks have their eyes fixed on the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. And because they are particularly engaged on the continent, let alone in these two Mediterranean countries.
French institutions are even the first European creditors in Egypt with $ 17.6 billion loan to Egypt, according to September figures from the Bank for International Settlements. The exposure of British banks, second most after France pledged amounted to $ 10.7 billion against 6.3 billion for Italian institutions. In total, European banks have lent $ 40.3 billion in Egypt.
Societe Generale has achieved 3% of its annual profit in Egypt
Societe Generale is the largest presence in Egypt.Its subsidiary, National Societe Generale Bank has 4 billion euros in loans and deposits 6 billion, according to figures released by the bank. The country accounts for about 3% of annual profits of the bank. It must be said that the continent is a development target for the French establishment no checking account payday advance. Societe Generale has also unveiled in late April its plans to open about 500 branches in Africa by 2015.
Societe Generale is not alone on this continent. Farm Credit makes almost 1.5% of its profits in Egypt with a billion euros of credit agreements and 2.5 billion of deposits at end-December. Proportionally, BNP Paribas is less involved on the continent: only 0.2% of its profit comes from its activities in Egypt, according to a note published in January by the Office of Analysis Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. The risk premium associated with the African continent is expected to grow.But for now, French companies do not seem willing to reconsider their strategy of expansion on the continent.
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Between Christine Lagarde and Baroin, many in recent weeks, trying to play the theme of a "Trading Places". Some imagined that Bercy hitherto divided between an economic hub and a center budget would be merged back into one entity, forcing one of the two to give place to another. Finally, it has not happened. Christine Lagarde Minister remains the Economy, Finance and Industry and Baroin retains the post of Minister of Budget and Public Accounts. The latter – which is depicted as prime minister until recent days – inherits the passage of a nice consolation prize by being named spokesman for the government.
The cohabitation between the two ministers will therefore continue until the end of the quinquennium. For better or for worse.For one, the other who have hitherto shown little of great complicity, will have to come together on one of their shared jurisdiction, taxation. They will be responsible for carrying out one of the last quinquennium of economic reforms, politically delicate: the abolition of the tax shield and changing the tax on capital. Two faces for reform? This is one of the many oddities of the administrative division of Bercy in two: Christine Lagarde is responsible for tax policy and Baroin as boss of the Treasury, is responsible for collecting the tax. Both will also have to find the right partition to manage the French public finances at a time when the debt crisis threatens the entire euro area.For if Baroin is responsible for the purse strings is Christine Lagarde, who defended France in international fora, in particular the Eurogroup …
The choice of the latter to maintain its position has just imposed on the head of state for these international issues. In upholding it, Nicolas Sarkozy made the choice of security in a time when France takes over the presidency of a G20 very divided on the issue of exchange. After a slow start, Christine Lagarde – former corporate lawyer in a U.S. firm – has emerged in these summits as a skilled negotiator able to find compromises in the most delicate moments. More comfortable in English than in French, she has forged in three and a half years, ties with foreign counterparts who respect it.The renewal yesterday of a woman who until 2005 lived in the United States and made a career in private, it will include in his way, his name in the Pantheon of Bercy. When she leaves the department in May 2012, it will go down in history as the Minister of Economy who had the greatest longevity in that post under the Fifth Republic to Valery Giscard d'Estaing and Pierre Beregovoy. Performance significantly, whereas during the last fifty years finance ministers remained on average eighteen months in office.At a time when many criticize the lack of real change in this new government, then the status quo is rather to emphasize …
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Gloom persists on Wall Street. The U.S. stock market finished lower on Friday. The Dow Jones was down 0.80% to 11,192.60 points, the S & P 500 by 1.18% to 1199.19 points and the Nasdaq by 1.46% to 2518.21 points. On Thursday, U.S. stock indexes were down significantly evolved during the greater part of the meeting, have limited the damage to the fence. At the finish, the Dow Jones sold 0.65% to 11,283.10 points, the S & P 500 fell 0.4% to 1 213.54 and the Nasdaq by 0.9% to 2 555.52.
The NYSE still worried about the crisis in public finances in Europe has also been weighed down by the severe slump in the OEM Cisco. The group has published better than expected results for the first quarter of fiscal offset. But CEO John Chambers has showered investors with forecasts of growth below expectations.Cisco enters the composition of the three major stock indexes in the U.S. market plunged by almost 16% Thursday.
On the macroeconomic front, the index of consumer sentiment stood at 69.3 against 69.0 expected by economists polled by Reuters. It was 67.7 in October.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro was recovering slightly by midday, supported by market rumors that a rescue plan is in preparation for Ireland.It was trading 1.3694 against the dollar, after falling briefly below the $ 1.36 for the first time in six weeks.
Unscrews Boeing, Walt Disney climbs
The side of values, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing (-3.52% to 63.07 dollars) on Thursday said he could determine that the fire that led to the emergency landing of one of its new 787, called "Dreamliner" during a test flight was due to a faulty electrical panel. The manufacturer had decided Wednesday to suspend the flight tests, the time to clarify the circumstances of a fire in flight which led to an emergency landing Tuesday in Texas. The Boeing faces crucial choices for Boeing in 2011.It will decide the future of several programs.
Always on the side of values, the media group and leisure Walt Disney (5.10% to 37.76 dollars) on Thursday released just before the close of Wall Street, a decrease of 7% to $ 835 million of its Net income in the fourth quarter, as revenue, has disappointed the market and limited growth recorded throughout the year.
Also note, according to Microsoft (-1.54% to 26.27 dollars) a new video game system without a controller, KINECTS could be a good marketing tool to target programs and even commercials, according to users, argued Thursday the IT group.
The U.S. portal Yahoo (-1.49% to 16.55 dollars), including advertising revenues continue to slow, considering possible redundancies.Products division directors were asked to prepare a plan for a 20% reduction in workforce. This could affect up to 1,400 people. Yahoo has already dismissed 700 employees in late 2009 and 1400 a year ago.