For Goldman Sachs, which published its investigation on Friday morning, ten of the 91 tested banks will fail. That is to say it does not retain a sufficient level of equity in the event of deteriorating economic conditions.
The success rate would be 89%. According to the study of the American bank, the banks are based in Spain, Germany and Greece, which should raise the more capital, adding that the source of these funds should be half public and half private.
The newspaper El Pais reported in its edition today that part of the 18 Spanish savings banks failed the test of resistance.To believe the consensus reached by Reuters, in Spain, only seven banks have passed the exam, including the largest as Banco Santander, BBVA, Banco Popular, and the "Cajas".
That success expected for French banks
In France, banks found – BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BPCE (Natixis) – should all pass. The analysts and Christine Lagarde have confidence.
Full house expected also for the United Kingdom, examined on HSBC, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group. In Ireland, Bank of Ireland and Allied Arish Banks also succeed in obtaining good results.Same as in Italy, with Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit and Banco Popolare including headlining.
In Germany, a handful of banks should be in a situation of failure, particularly those that are undergoing restructuring.
Failure: it will recapitalize
According to Goldman Sachs, European banks should raise an average total of 37.6 billion euros in fresh capital as a result of these stress tests, whose results are expected Friday at 6:00 p.m., after the close of European stock markets but in full session on Wall Street.
In search of capital, these banks 'risk' may first explore to their shareholders or to tap financial markets easy payday loans. If this is not enough, she can turn to state aid at the national level.Finally, as a last resort, they can "take advantage" of the famous European support plan put in place at the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Confidence in the results, distrust Performances
With a success rate approaching that expected of the baccalaureate, the question is what will truly value the conclusions of these stress tests. Experts warn that it would be better to consider the assumptions made when simulating a situation worsened.
"The information currently circulating in banks suggest that the stress test favors disclosure of a satisfactory result compared to a real and solid technical verification," says Pierre-Antoine Dusoulier in a forum.
These data suggest that in fact the test cases would be fairly "light" in particular in the field of defaults on sovereign debt. Assumptions of the macroeconomic developments would also be applied "without knowing it for the moment the link established by the test between GDP growth, unemployment and inflation."
In addition, past forecasts on macroeconomic parameters were simply struck by the actual conditions. In spring 2008, the European Commission expected a growth of 1.7% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009 for the euro area. Real growth was 0.45% in 2008 and -4.1% in 2009.
Pass the exam stress test is a bit like having your bachelor's degree with an overall average just over 10/20. This is not the best conditions for its future.
Confident for banks, Christine Lagarde prepares for the fall an action plan for large exporters French.
LE FIGARO. – You now receive your German counterpart, Wolfgang Schäuble, the Council of Ministers, while you were in March, criticized the German economic model …
Christine Lagarde. – First, the participation of Wolfgang Schäuble, the Council of Ministers is the first by a German minister. But what a powerful symbol of closeness is in fact very natural when you know that contacts are actually daily between France and Germany. It happens every week, I spoke at least twice to Wolfgang Schäuble to harmonize our positions. And the director of the French Treasury is in daily contact with his counterpart. I have not criticized the German model.I said: "From the perspective of European stability, we must all make efforts, setting the course as a priority of deficit reduction."
Germany is today a leading exporter. Should we be inspired?
The competitiveness of Germany is higher than ours, but France has real expertise in major infrastructure projects in energy, transport, water, meeting the needs of large emerging countries. We need better value.
How?
We were gone in 15 years more than 100,000 companies exporting to 90,000 just, and we regularly lose market share. It was therefore necessary to react.We did this by structural measures for firms, such as reform of the tax credit, research or business tax, and we also created in 2008, a specialized agency – Ubifrance – to support SMEs exports in 44 countries. The experiment was successful: between 2008 and 2010, activity doubled. So I decided, with Anne-Marie Idrac, increase next year's budget speech, more than 20%. It is a considerable effort since the same time, the budget for my department will decrease.
And the big contracts?
In this area, the recovery is taking shape but with a "kick 7.2 billion euros in the fourth quarter 2009 and 3.3 billion in the first quarter 2010 and 6.5 billion in the second quarter. Our goal is to make every effort to seize the opportunities offered by the booming market of large emerging countries.For this, we initiated a strategic dialogue in the spring with thirty large exporters, who were asked to reflect on what needs to be improved no faxing cash advance. We meet them again in the fall at Bercy to develop a plan of action.
Some tracks stand out there already?
Yes. It will inevitably revise our system of financing, taking greater account of the interests of strategic partnerships between French and foreign companies, and also establish more reciprocal anti-corruption standards, environmental, social … The last point could be the agenda of the G20 Finance.
To avoid that France republishes failure of Abu Dhabi on nuclear power, should we not also a better coordination of actors?
The loss of the contract for the plant is actually part of the warning signals. There is no compromise on quality and security, especially nuclear, but we must take greater account of customer needs, for example by developing medium-size reactors, such as TDD, from the cooperation with Areva and Mitsubishi. And also, probably, in increasing the business to co-ordinating bodies such as the Inter-Departmental Support International Contracts (CIAC).
On Friday, the European Central Bank will publish the results of stress tests of 91 European banks. What do you expect?
I am following as milk on the fire.But I am totally confident about the outcome of the French banks after the stress tests.
The taboo of the word "rigor" is definitely broken?
The word "rilance" I started, has been much ink. It does not reflect a wealth of government but the need, on one hand, to apply the principle of budgetary discipline in the process of spending and the other to continue to support the value creation and employment , which is needed in France, targeting innovation and investment.
You are reluctant to abolish eight declared the twenty-eight positions in your firm. Will you do?
First, there is no panic on board as some say. Departures are planned, because after three years of study can be exhausted or aspire to other horizons.I will follow instructions, as I always did it with a cabinet composed only of formal collaborators and I want to honor them, they are not unworthy. We will achieve our objectives in a timely manner.
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Louis Welsh, president of EADS, is convinced. The decision of the World Trade Organization (WTO), said Wednesday that "illegal" certain EU subsidies paid to Airbus for the A380, "changes nothing" for the A350. "The support for the A350 are not iIn the" scope "(Field, Ed) of the panel that reviewed the complaint of Americans," said Louis Welsh Saturday. He added: "It was explicitly stated that although such aid is not in the" scope ", they were sentenced prior BLES, since the system of repayable advances itself is not contrary to the rules WTO.
Always on the fringes of economic meeting held in Aix-en-Provence, Louis Welsh, assured that Airbus would submit an offer in time with U.S. partners for the bulk tanker contract from the U.S. Air Force. "We have reached an agreement with 200 companies amricaines.The Pentagon must decide to fall on the mega-tanker contract enviton estimated at 35 billion dollars. Airbus and Boeing have until July 9 to finalize their proposals. A decision is expected next fall. "I think the nervousness that manifests Boeing in this case and the propaganda campaign that he led for three or four days shows qu'ls fear that we have a competitive bid on the tanker," said Louis Welsh. Ambiance, atmosphere …
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At the opening, the Dow Jones was down 0.25% at 10,845 points, the S & P 500 fold from 0.03% to 1166 points and the Nasdaq 0.34% loose, to 1966 points.
On Wednesday, the three major indexes in New York posted strong gains Wednesday.
Eight banks covered by a survey
The Attorney General of New York has opened an investigation into eight banks, including Credit Agricole, to determine if they had provided misleading information about their mortgages before the subprime crisis, "according to The New York Times.Goldman Sachs (-0.57% to 146.36 dollars), Morgan Stanley (1.29% to 28.16 dollars), UBS, Citigroup (-1.68% to 4.11 dollars), JP Morgan & Chase (-0.62% to 41.43 dollars), Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (+0.24% to 17.11 dollars) and Credit Agricole in the crosshairs.
The dollar continued its rise against the euro
The euro fell Thursday to a level that was hers before the announcement of the stabilization plan of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).The single currency traded at 1.2586 dollars, down 0.3% on the day, approaching its lowest level in 14 months.
Decline in number of unemployed weaker than expected
The resurgence of the greenback is supported by the fourth consecutive decrease the number of newly unemployed in the United States, according to figures released Thursday by the Labor Department in Washington cash advance america. The ministry said 444,000 new jobless claims were submitted from May 2 to 8, or 0.9% less than the previous week (in seasonally adjusted data).
Oil prices opened sharply lower Thursday in New York, a barrel of benchmark lost 1.47 dollars to 74.18 dollars. Wednesday crude inventories rose 1.9 million barrels to 362.5 million.Economists on average had expected a rise of 1.3 million barrels.
Contracts awarded on the prudence of Cisco
The Japanese electronics giant Sony (-2.47% to 32.42 dollars) confirmed Thursday it had ended the fiscal year 2009-2010 on a net deficit reduced to 40.8 billion yen (312 million euros ), reflecting a return to the green on the plan of operation, through reductions in fixed costs. Sony also said Thursday that he hoped to finish the fiscal year began last April, and will be closed in March 2011, a net profit of 50 billion yen (about 400 million euros).
Cisco (-3.42% to 25.83 dollars) has announced its profit jumped 63%, but its CEO said that caution was in order.
Registrations of new cars in France have slowed significantly in April, the end result of whiplash print market since late last year by the scrappage
New registrations rose 1.9% in April on a year in France, reaching 190,986 units, said Monday the Committee of French car manufacturers (CCFA). In March, they still leapt 17.9%, still boosted by the registrations of cars ordered in late 2009 to take advantage of the premium to 1,000 euros. This was reduced to 700 euros since 1 January, and will fall to 500 euros in the second half.
"We see here the impact of gradually reducing the premium breaks, there is some decline in the small car category, those who have benefited most from the device, and you know you will go into negative at the end of the year, "said a spokesman for the CCFA.
"Despite this, the ski manufacturers we also show that the level of orders for new models and for mid-size cars are holding up well, meaning that the market continues to resist despite the decline in aid."
Citroen sales down 8.3%
The major manufacturers all expect a decline in European car market this year, the second half of 2010 announcing the end more difficult with a comparison of premiums and increasingly unfavorable relative to the boom in late 2009. Renault has amounted to 10% expected decline while its major competitor PSA Peugeot Citro?n expects down 9% quick payday loan.
Last month had 21 days, provided that April 2009.Of the first four months of 2010, registrations in France reflected an increase of 12.9% to 785,706 units.
Sales of passenger cars Peugeotont group rose 7.3%, but those of the Citro?n stand down 8.6% on month, while Peugeot's registrations increased by 24.2%.
As for the Renault group, registrations were up 17.2% – an increase of 9% for the brand new diamond and jumped over 100% for Dacia (Logan, Sandero and Duster).
Improvements on commercial vehicles
French brands have still got their game well, with an increase of 8% against a decline of 4.9% for foreign brands. Among foreign automakers, Nissan (49.2%), General Motors Europe (+43.5%) and the BMW Group (+24.1%) recorded the most notable increases.The Volkswagen group (-20%), Fiat (-13.3%) and Ford (-12.8%) are in decline.
The improvement in the commercial market, particularly affected by the slowdown in economic exchanges, is also confirmed. The registrations of light commercial vehicles rose 32.2% last month, marking an acceleration from the 16.5% increase observed in March (+11.4% when adjusted for working days). In commercial vehicles over 5.1 tonnes, in turn, is down 9.4%, against 28.4% in March.
After opening slightly higher, 0.21%, CAC 40, which has enjoyed, this time, a mixed close on Wall Street too, fell into the red. Shortly before noon, the index feature of the Bourse de Paris yielded 1.36% at 3942.91 points, while he had gained 1.17% yesterday night at the close. Subsequently, the markets have been showered by the decision of the Ageng rating S & P lowered the rating two notches debt of Portugal. Like Greece, the country is saddled with a huge deficit. What has worried the markets literally, since the Paris Stock Exchange has stepped up its withdrawal. At the close, the CAC 40 fell by 3.82% in ironing 3,900 points.
Elsewhere, markets are also oriented substantially in the red. London losing more than 2.61%, 3.28% loose Madrid.The Dax in Frankfurt has finally sold 2.73% to 6159.51 points and the FTSE in London, 2.61%, to 5603.52 points.
The outbreak, imperious Plan aid to Greece remains suspended to the new requirements of German thoroughness. The 10-year rate that Athens can refinance markets have exceeded 9.6%. Athex, the Athens Stock Exchange finished in fall of 6%. The markets clearly fear a default if the country does not receive in time, by May 19, the money promised by the EU and the IMF.
A contagion feared
Fears of contagion to other countries in the euro area patients deficits have magnified the nervousness of the markets.
Everywhere, banking stocks weighed on the trend, banks are most exposed in case of default of payment of Greece.
In Paris, BNP Paribas lost 7% in closing, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale 6.42% 6.02%.
Other sources of uncertainty for the sector: Accused of fraud, the bosses at Goldman Sachs on Tuesday defended before the U.S. Senate, which has also defer consideration of the proposed reform of financial regulation.
Meanwhile, "similar problems (to those of Greece), but at a different level are met by other countries," warned the Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Greek Lucas Papademos. This risk is probably overshadowed the macroeconomic data and solid corporate earnings released in Europe (BP, Deutsche Bank and Electrolux) as the U.S. (3M, Dupont, Ford, UPS and U.S. Steel have better than expected.).In New York, tenacious optimism, however, the Dow Jones yielding 1.13% after the closure of Paris. Greece weighed, despite two U.S. indicators able to offset profit-taking and uncertainty: if house prices in February will have recovered only 0.6% a year against 1.3% expected, the confidence index April's consumer, however, rose more than expected, the highest since September 2008.
Economic conditions continued to improve in the United States in January-February, "although harsh snowstorms in early February have dampened activity in several regions," according to the Beige Book released Wednesday by the U.S. central bank (Fed).
The document states that the activity has increased in nine of the twelve regions (by cutting the Fed), but that "in most cases, these improvements were small.
The information provided by the Beige Book are very important because they serve as a reference to the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed scheduled for March 16, which will decide on changes in interest rates.
Regarding the labor market, for which the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, gave recently bleak outlook before Congress, the document notes that "the pace of layoffs has slowed in most regions, but that hiring plans of companies remain "soft in general."
As for expenditure on household consumption, traditional engine of growth of the country which is struggling to regain its role, they "grew slightly in many areas, but have been hampered in some by the snowfalls of early No teletrek payday advance .000 Points.
In Europe, the main squares are continuing their sharp fall, including leaded by fears concerning Greece, Spain and Portugal.
Moreover, the dollar continued its rise Friday. The European currency rose to 1.3648 dollars on Friday morning, under $ 1.37 per euro.but after the employment figures, the euro rose back above that threshold.
At the same time, commodity prices fell, oil Thursday evening closing down 5% to 73.14 dollar per barrel. This Friday, oil prices continued their fall, while an epidemic of risk aversion continued to hit commodities, the euro and equity markets, and anxiety remained high in a few hours of report U.S. employment.
Airgas to follow
Toyota should be on the radar screens of investors as the group has apologized publicly.The Japanese auto giant Toyota, which suffered a barrage of criticism and lawsuits after recalling millions of cars affected by technical faults, was Friday denied concealing these issues publicly and said that its cars are "safe".
Kraft Foods has confirmed that regulators had approved its bid for Cadbury.
Airgas has increased by over 42% yesterday on the Stock Exchange after Air Products has offered 5.1 billion dollars to buy its rival.
The moral of households deteriorated slightly in December, the index dropping one point to -31, according to figures released Tuesday by the INSEE. "Although significant increase from its historically low level of late 2007, the indicator remains well below its average level over the last fifteen years," notes the INSEE.
More to come …
No rest for the CAC 40. The latter has just enrolled in early trading Monday to its highest level in 2009, three days before his last meeting of the year. The flagship index of the Paris Bourse is indeed 0.7% to 3940 points 20 minutes after opening. For its part, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange broke the 6,000 points.
Optimism seems to be placed on international markets. In Asia, indices were equally oriented, taking advantage of such remarks by the Chinese premier, who has called for further fiscal stimulus in his country.
The British markets will be closed at the Boxing Day. No indicator is expected today, neither Europe nor the United States.
Values follow
EDF is 0.86%, GDF Suez wins 1.58%, Areva lost 1.92%, and Total is 0.78%.This is the South Korean consortium has won the contract for 40 billion dollars in the UAE for the construction and operation of four nuclear reactors. The French consortium comprising the four energy groups, one given time favorite is defeated.
Societe Generale is 0.52%. The group could have a new shareholder in the person of the Russian businessman Vladimir Potanin. The shareholder of Norilsk Nickel said Friday it was considering the possibility of taking a minority stake after 2010.