"The Great Recession does not amount to a great vacation," says Professor Erik Hurst, University of Chicago, who with two other economists Mark Aguiar and Loukas Karabarbounis, conducted a study on "the use of time during recessions "(Time use DURING recessions, NBER).
Of the 260 million hours a week lost in the labor market between January 2007 and December 2010, some 92 million, over a third were employed in domestic work and child care. These figures come from the annual survey of the Federal Administration (Bureau of Labor) on how Americans spend their days.
After the sale "Flash" will there be shown the concept of selling "super flash"? Papercut, a Swedish chain of distribution of cultural products, offers on its website a unique experience to its customers. SpeedSale called, this feature leaves only four seconds to users to enter a promotional offer.A list of 16 products at bargain prices is presented to them once and only once! If the client does not validate any purchase, it is impossible to return to the list and a message appears: "You had a chance and you ruined, come back the next century." The user is then redirected to the page Home Papercut site.
"Sales 'flash', 'private sales' and other 'deals are limited in time' have always been part of the promotional techniques invented by retailers to increase the desirability of their offerings," noted experts LaSer, equal subsidiary group Galeries Lafayette and BNP Paribas Personal Finance specializes in marketing and customer relations."With the online business, these opportunities have continued to increase until the proposal Papercut extreme, proof that people are always looking for new shopping experiences and, for them, use n ' is never very far in the game "
This view is shared Olivier Mathiot, co-founder and marketing director PriceMinister. "The sales script 'flash' or other private sales makes shopping even more fun." He was convinced that the Internet boosts "impulse buying". "This media immediacy causes a sense of urgency that forces the user to decide very quickly. It recreates an environment conducive to the frenzy and excitement, "said Olivier Mathiot. PriceMinister also take account of this trend.
Bought by the Japanese Rakuten in June 2010, the site led by Pierre Kosciusko-Morizet draws its sales processes favored by the Japanese. It has well before mid-2012 to implement his concept of "shopping marathon", an event that lasts 30 hours and is conducted twice a year in June and December. "Ten merchants in the same sector, such as fashion or food, offering users a selection of products at bargain prices, and product category changes every hour," explains Olivier Mathiot. This visit a huge success. "The turnover of Rakuten in Japan grew by 150% during these periods," says co-founder of PriceMinister overnight pay day loans.
"Everyone wins"
"Everybody is up with this kind of promotional offers," says one at eBay, the specialist in online auctions."The customer is doing well and the merchant increases its visibility while achieving dramatic sales volumes in a timely manner." In order not to miss the boat, eBay launched in early October its "Daily Deals", inspired by the "daily deals, "such sales 'flash' already well proven in Britain and Germany. For one day, merchants offer discounts on products theme, depending on the season and current events. Like Papercut and his concept of 'speed dirty' in Sweden, eBay distills the game in the act of purchasing: "Auctions are the adrenaline and that's what consumers are looking for. The evidence, from 20 to 25% of people who come to our site looking for auction, "says eBay.
Of adrenaline to the frustration, there is a site that has taken Swedish Papercut cheerfully. "The frustration is part of the game and users know it.If the sale is concluded, the satisfaction is increased tenfold, "Marc Lolivier analysis, managing director of Fevad. However, the practice of selling 'flash' requires good organization. Beware of stock-outs that could raise the ire of consumers, while retailers would pay back customers who have already paid for their order. Here, no one would gain.
E-commerce: the bar crossed the 100,000 sites by 2012
Internet sales continue to take their game in a morose for household consumption in France. The turnover of e-commerce sites has reached 17.5 billion euros, up 20% from January to June, according to the Federation of e-commerce and distance selling (Fevad). Nearly 20,000 new commercial sites have been created, an increase of 28%, bringing to nearly 90,000 the number of active sites in France."The bar of 100,000 sites could be reached by 2012," said Fevad. In the first half, the areas of fashion clothing and Tourism signed the largest increases in turnover (+16%), far ahead of the high-tech products (8%) and sales professionals (+ 5%).
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The Greeks are paying the price of the crisis with their health. So says a British study published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet. The explosion in the number of suicides, increased drug use or an increase in HIV infections are in fact the direct consequences of the recession but also of austerity in Greece.
Depression and suicides on the rise
While the island is experiencing its worst recession in 40 years, doubling the unemployment rate in two years more than 16% leads to more and more Greeks to depression and drugs. In fact, suicides increased by 17% between 2007 and 2009 and 40% in the first five months of 2011 compared to the same period last year. Figures all the more impressive as the Greek statistical authorities, the suicide rate in Greece was among the lowest in the EU between 1990 and 2009.Some cases were particularly marked population, like that of a former businessman who has defenestration, leaving a note in which he explained that the financial crisis had had the better of him. Or that of an owner of a small store, found hanged under a bridge, with a letter that read: "Do not look for other reasons. The economic crisis has led me to this. "
Drug use has also risen sharply. Heroin use in particular has increased by 20% in 2009. And even more so in the context of austerity measures imposed by the international rescue plan, control programs against drugs has been reduced by one third fast payday loan no faxing.
A trend that explains the 50% increase in the number of HIV infections at the end of 2010. Researchers predict that the contamination will increase by 52% this year compared to last year.In addition, drug users have less access to small jobs or for pocket money from their parents, some of them prostitutes, which in the case of unprotected sex, also contributes to the spread the virus.
Public hospitals overwhelmed and corrupt
Finally, rising unemployment means that many Greeks no longer receive health coverage provided by their employer. Thus, those who consulted in the private massage now in public hospitals. Now hospitals have seen their budgets melt 40% between 2007 and 2009. A diet which leads to problems of lack of staff and medicines and waiting times exorbitant lead some patients to pay bribes to get an appointment earlier.
Result, the number of people who give to see a doctor when they are sick has increased by 17% between 2007 and 2009.The number of those who describe it as being "bad" or "very bad" health increased by 14% in two years. "Overall, the picture of health in Greece is alarming, the authors conclude. It reminds us that, in an effort to debt financing, they are ordinary people who pay. "
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"Tour of Europe's austerity plans
Europeans "must act quickly" to the risk of contagion from the crisis in Greece, launched on Thursday the U.S. president during a press conference in the White House, largely devoted to the difficulties of the U.S. economy. "There is a G20 coming in November" in France, said Barack Obama. "I really hope that the next summit, they will have an action plan clear and concrete that will be up," he said, after warning that "the problems that Europe is going through could have a very real effect on our economy, when it is already weakened. "
The U.S. president also defended the stimulus package he presented to Congress a month ago, ensuring that the plan "will help us guard against a further decline in activity if the situation were to worsen in Europe ".The plan "will support economic growth, he put people back to work," he added, while the Senate is to decide next week on the proposed $ 447 billion, already described as "dead" by the opposition Republican majority in the House. "Unless we act, the opposite will happen: there will be fewer jobs, less growth," warned the president.
The Acting springboard to employment or siding? To find out, the Prism, employers' federation which includes 600 companies and 90% of the turnover of the sector, followed two years of 5000 interim recruited in January 2009. For 82% of them, the use of temporary was "to find a solution quickly", even if that allowing young people to gain work experience. It was just a "lifestyle choice" for 18% of the cohort.
Two years later, one in three still working as a temp. Less than one in five advanced employment center, 21% landed a CDI, CDD a 15%, 3% have returned to school and 2% left the labor market. During the period, "29% have experienced the CDI at least once," says the prism, and 38% had access to a CSD."In a period that was terrible, you get a good figure, says Arnaud de la Tour, president of Prism. This is proof that the interim is not a trap insecurity. "The young are doing well.
Nearly one out of two after two years in CDI or CDD, as against 23% still acting. "The acting is a means of integration into social and working life allowing them to move," Judge Arnold of the Tower.
Ensure the transition periods
Following this study, the Prism has established six key patterns of agency of all ages. 24% of them are "acting career" that are not seeking permanent but build their lives at the mercy missions.19% have "paths encountered" alternating tasks, periods of unemployment, sick leave, minimum social … The young, qualified and looking to get a firm foothold, make up the third block and is 17%.
Then there are the 16% who see in the interim how to ensure the transition periods between CDI, or as a means of conversion. The fifth group consists of people who want to keep their independence and get rich from others. These are often temporary "in the second half of career", graduates or students. Finally, 4% are foreigners and the interim use as "a process of professional integration."
Employment center provides 5,000 more unemployed in 2011
Employment center Tuesday revised its forecast of employment and unemployment. With growth of 1.7% in 2011, the economy should create 130,000 jobs this year, 33,900 more than in the first half.A shift is expected in 2012, where between 101,000 and 126,000 new jobs are anticipated. "The slowdown in job creation combined with the dynamism of the labor force should not be allowed to initiate a decline in unemployment," warns employment center. The number of unemployed is expected to increase this year of 5000 in category A (there is already at 32,000) and 78,000 in A, B and C (102 700). If growth remains at 1.7% in 2012, employment center predicts a decline of 5,000 unemployed and 12,000 A in A, B and C. If it drops to 1.4%, it will be an increase of 27,000 in A and 35 000 in A, B and C.
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"The temporary assignments are becoming shorter
Relief from international stock markets. Wednesday after the U.S. places, it's time for Asian indices on Thursday morning to welcome the statements of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining Greece in the euro area. The Asian markets – and notament Tokyo – earn up to 1.5%. For its part, the euro ahead by 0.5% against the dollar and 1.375 against the dollar is trading early this morning. The "future" on the European stock index Eurostoxx 50 show an increase of 2.50% on opening.
Following a conference call held late in the day Wednesday between Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel and George Papandreou, the Franco-German couple has been very clear in stating that "the role of Greece in the euro area. "In a statement released in the process, they attached a condition, however, also very explicit: "The implementation of strict and effective recovery program of the Greek economy supported by the countries of the euro area and the IMF and which conditions the disbursement of future tranches of the program. "
Since the Davos Forum held for three days in Tianjin, China, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the China Development and Reform, confirmed that China stands ready to buy securities with sovereign debt states involved in the debt crisis.Earlier in the day, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao had made statements to this effect while advising countries to reduce their deficits and to open their markets rather than relying on China to pay off the debts of the world's economies wide.
Similarly, the president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, said his country is ready to participate in a "global effort" against the economic crisis that affects rich countries, following the announcement of a meeting of countries emerging Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to discuss aid to Europe.The head of state stressed, however, that there is no "global solution" to the crisis and that much depends on the countries concerned.
For its part, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner who should participate in a meeting Friday of finance ministers in Europe, had said before the conference between France, Germany and Greece, convinced that the Europeans "have financial resources to do what is necessary and avoid the collapse "of the euro area". He had, however, added that the Europeans will have to "recognize that they will have to do more and have fallen behind."
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Signs of abating in the real estate frenzy in Paris. After growth of over 20% yoy in the first quarter (numbers of notaries), the house prices have stalled this summer. "We anticipated a slowdown of rising prices later in the year 2011. The events give us reason Fortunately, "says Bernard Cadeau, president of the branch network Orpi. The peaks in June, with the ceiling of 8000 euros per square meter happily burst, combined with the gradual rise in lending rates, have affected the volume of sales since the beginning of 2011. It made sense that eventually, prices undergo an adjustment. For more than a drop, it is a market correction it is.
Drain excess
"If there is downward, this concerns the very large apartments of 100 m2 which the price had been overestimated in the euphoria of late 2010 and early 2011," said Gilles Ricour of Bourges, president of the FNAIM Paris. "The capital market is a very individual who has self-sustained higher prices. Many potential purchasers already own their homes had postponed their plans because of the crisis in 2009. In 2010, when prices started to increase, they came with very important contributions. In addition they have changed their behavior. Rather than sell their home before buying another, they started buying in a market that climbed before to bear part of the price of their new acquisition to the purchaser, pushing prices up, "says Laurent Vimont, Chair of the Century 21 network cash advance loan no fax."Today, we purge the excesses," he adds. A correction that he says will not exceed a slight decline in the order of 1%.
The threat of taxation
"The summer months are not representative of normal activity in the sector. It was not until September which is traditionally an important month for the volume of transactions, "said he. "Always be careful. Paris concentrates all the ills of the market immobilieravec a very high demand and low supply, "said Bernard Cadeau. A shortage that could he said to go to … amplifying with assistance from the government. "There is very little construction in the capital, and with the new tax measures, are discouraged sellers put their property on the market," said he. "Since August 25, and the announcement of the taxation of capital gains to 32.5%, many sellers have withdrawn their products," alarmed Gilles Ricour Bourges."It would be unfortunate if these new measures will undermine the stabilization of prices," he concluded, as a warning to members who are currently planing tax loopholes.
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Wall Street still frozen in the red. At midday, the Dow Jones unscrewed from 3.34% to 10,865 points, the Nasdaq 2.73% to loose 2415 points and the S & P lost 2.97% to 1138 points. As in Europe, signs of nervousness are palpable the day after a session rebound. The volume of trade is still very well fleshed out and heightened volatility. "At this stage, investors dizzy," says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services.
On Wednesday, Greece worried again. The country plans to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors. As the European markets, the banking sector is particularly attacked the image of Bank of America (-9.87%), Citigroup (-8.49%), Goldman Sachs (-7.76%), Morgan Stanley ( -7.52%), Wells Fargo (-6.17%) and JP Morgan Chase (-6.13%).
In addition, rumors of degradation of the note of the French debt by a rating agency revived fears about the health of the euro area. "These rumors are totally unfounded and the three agencies Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's have confirmed that there was no risk of degradation," it was stated in the entourage of the Minister of Finance, Baroin.
Fear of a recession
In addition, operators are even very concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Yesterday, the world stock markets have overreacted, and positive against all odds, to about the Fed. This has indeed ensured that it would maintain its rates at a historical low, and until mid-2013 to support the economy. Its leaders also promised various stimulus, but without specifying its content. It will probably wait until his final release in late August.On the merits, however, the Fed has painted a disturbing report from the world's largest economy. Growth, pointing in particular the U.S. central bank, is growing at an annual rate of less than 1% in the first half, where the institution expected, earlier this year, more than 3%.
The market was undergoing "fears about the economy, perhaps headed toward a new recession, and lingering concerns about the debt problems of the euro area," said Peter Cardillo, Rockwell Global Capital.
In contrast, oil prices were up sharply on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). A barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery finished at 82.89 dollars, up 3.59 dollars compared to the previous day. Oil stocks have fallen dramatically and unexpectedly last week in the U.S., according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Energy.Crude inventories fell 5.2 million barrels to 349.8 million barrels in the week ended August 5. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast the contrary, an increase of 1.1 million barrels.
Note that the budget deficit of the United States continued to fall in July for the fourth consecutive month according to figures released Wednesday by the Treasury Department.The deficit stood at 129.4 billion dollars for the tenth month of the fiscal year 2010-2011, which began October 1, or 22% less than in July 2010, the ministry said.
Disney abused despite good results
On the business side, Cisco (-1.68% to 13.82 dollars) will unveil its results later this evening the fourth quarter, along with News Corp (-5.36% to 13.77 dollars).
Disney (-12.72% to 30.29 dollars) falls after the media group has yet announced quarterly results better than expected thanks to strong advertising revenue on its cable networks.
The title of U.S. internet group AOL (-8.85% to 10.20 dollars) has lost over a quarter of its value on Tuesday at the New York Stock Exchange after the release of disappointing quarterly earnings and lower forecasts. The stock has dropped 25.75% against the current of a market up sharply.The action even reached 10.36 dollars during the session, the lowest price ever since the split with Time Warner in 2009.
Facebook on Tuesday launched a new application for mobile phones iPhone (Apple) and those equipped with the Android operating system (Google) to send messages to his "friends" on social networking, but also to other contacts. Called "Messenger", the application can send both text messages (SMS) and email.
Apple (-1.11% to 369.85 dollars) briefly delighted yesterday to ExxonMobil, its position as the first market capitalization.
Otis, Crossroads Market, Carrard Services … These three companies have one thing in common: they face these days in a strike of their employees who claim to be better working conditions or wage increases, sometimes both. How original you might say, to see employees' strike "because they are dissatisfied? Not much except that the term "strike" was historically a very different meaning.
The word "strike" originated on the "Place de Greve," the name given to the middle of the twelfth century to the scope in front of City Hall of Paris. It was a beach of sand and gravel which stows the goods (wood, wheat, hay, wine …) arrived by the Seine and ended up where, each morning at dawn, workers without work seeking employers for the day.This "Place de Grève" was then a scholarship to work and place of employment for the unemployed. In short, an employment center before time …
This concentration of workers who were not working but looking for a job … was called "strikers." Hence the emergence then of "strike" which means "look for a job." A sense diametrically opposite to that of today …
Despite his cheerful voice, that the bitterness that prevails. After 17 years of work to earn temporary caps in many societies, Sylvie Trouillet displays its ras-le-bol without wearing gloves. "The interim, it became a battle every day," she plague. The latest figures from job center, which show an improvement of temporary employment from 14% in one year, let this marble forties. His only concern: "The precarious status of the Interim," which in her opinion, rises to a crescendo.This observation led him to create the National Association of long-term acting (Anild), to defend the rights of these workers.
Unemployed since the beginning of the year except for a mission of "technical secretary" of three weeks in an estate agency that winter, the executive assistant training roundly on a sector that "has profoundly deteriorated over last twenty years. " After two CDI punctuated redundancies, first in a shoe wholesaler, then to a company renovating the building, she pushed for the first time the door of a temporary agency in 1994. She is 26 years."At the time, there was no support or unemployment benefits, it should work right away." In the process, she landed her first mission at France Telecom: a post of Assistant Director of site Val de Fontenay, near Paris.
From 1990 to 2001, "a blessed time of the gods"
Nestle to Air France, through the Savings Bank, EDF, the National Federation of jewelers, etc.. The missions are linked together, "often of long duration, three to six months." "The phone rang regularly," recalls she, calling the period from early 1990 until 2001, "blessed by the gods." Throughout the experiments, "I climbed the ladder from secretary to become commercial or sténodacylo framework," adds Sylvia proudly."With the interim, my salary has also increased from the minimum wage paid to 3,000 euros per month," connects the daughter of butchers, who then receives the temporary work as a springboard. Claiming a status of "interim career, by choice," she does not think in this context, to move towards a CDD or CDI.
But in 2001, the "gods" are less forgiving. The "changeover" to mark the beginning of a Sylvie "period of uncertainty" in the chain of missions pay day advance. "Suddenly, with this first crisis, the candidates have poured into the agencies," in which "human relations" were, she said, reduced to a trickle. "The agencies were no longer account for our luggage to our versatility and experience as before, she does most valued our résumé," Sylvie annoyed. "We proposed missions under-qualified, sometimes without regard to our training.And if they refused, we were told that there were thirty people behind. "Consequence of the crisis that followed the bursting of the dotcom bubble, pushing companies to drastically reduce their costs and staffing. For Sylvie, agencies, anxious to maintain their contracts with their corporate partners, then stopped "selling" their acting properly.
The Interim, "an unemployed sleep"
And according to him, the situation has further deteriorated since the last crisis. A real gap has widened particularly between "acting, which is not entitled to RTT, or tickets to restaurants" and "owner" analysis does."Once, a colleague told me anyway, an interim president, is an unemployed worker to sleep!" Without the assurance of finding work every time, like many self-employed Sylvie concedes that his private and social life has taken a hit: "I'm single, childless, and have not taken a vacation since 1982," she whispered.
In 2005, while unemployment and "free allocation", Sylvia suffers a period of great distress. "The phone rang again I was a nervous wreck.Sometimes I had to settle for a glass of milk and a biscuit a day. "It will take the opportunity of a mission at Carrefour to put an end to this rough patch and regain morale.
With Anild its association founded in January with a friend acting, Sylvie hopes to "raise awareness among agencies, public opinion and government" in the evolution of temporary work, especially for the 2012 presidential election. Only fifteen members have so far joined its ranks. Although many in comparison "of more than 800,000 temporary" that make up the market. But she said many people have already made contact. Besides his commitment, Sylvie is looking for work. Meanwhile, as always, that "the phone rings."