The situation remains uncertain in the U.S. capital markets. Despite fears of contagion from the debt crisis in the euro area, the New York Stock Exchange was still closed up. The increase, however, is shy. The Dow Jones gained 0.14% to 12,096.16 points, the Nasdaq is 1.07% to 2686.20 points and the S & P 500 rose 0.48% to 1257.81 points.
The distrust of government bonds in Spain and Italy still has soared. Spanish borrowing rate to 10 years have in fact exceeded the critical threshold of 6% yesterday, which had not been seen since early August. Italy has in turn launched a tender coldly received.
Russia enters the WTO backwards. After eighteen years of fruitless negotiations, Russia will finally entering the World Trade Organization (WTO). The decision will be made official on 15 and 16 November during a ministerial meeting of the Organization, in Geneva, and should take full effect in the summer of 2012.
U.S. President Barack Obama has "welcomed" his counterpart, Dmitri Medvedev. Russia remains so far the only major power not to comply with multilateral trade rules. This advance, described the EU as "a very important step for the Russian economy" is, however, greeted with great discretion in Moscow. Vladimir Putin, who will return to Kremlin in 2012, has never hidden his lack of enthusiasm at the prospect of a liberalization of the Russian economy.Under the pretext of various sanitary, Moscow often blocks the European agri-food imports. Example, from November 15, German pigs suspected of receiving antibiotics, will be denied entry on Russian soil. "Once in the WTO, Russia must change its practices," said the diplomat, however, is not no illusions. The Kremlin will find it hard to give up their protectionist habits.
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This is one of the topics on which Bercy must be urgently addressed. Once set in motion the dismantling, liquidation of Dexia raises the crucial question of the fate of Dexia Credit Local, actor historical funding of local authorities in France. With two major risks to the key. The first, more obvious, the future of 1300 employees of the group. The second, less visible but equally significant, the need to compensate for the loss of a market leader in loans to local area is drying. A strategic issue for the French economy, knowing that municipalities and other semi-public companies focus a large part of the investment in France.
According to the scheme blessed by Bercy, The Post Bank is expected to take over from Dexia on new loans, via a joint venture which it will own 65% and the Deposit 35%.But in the current discussions, Philippe Wahl, chief executive of The Bank intends to significantly reduce mailing the scope of its intervention.
According to an internal document that has acquired Le Figaro, a subsidiary of La Poste aims to establish "a secure and cost-effective model." A slogan: zero risk on its balance sheet, zero financial resources and significant margins. The Post Bank and excludes to the liquidity available for its core businesses such as home loans or consumer credit in the service of this new clientele. A surprise because it is precisely to tap into surplus resources of the Post Bank that it had been in the loop.
Instead, the "new player in the financing of local authorities" – as he describes himself – is that its production loan is refinanced entirely by Dexma, the tool securitization Dexia which the Deposit will hold 65% Dexia Bank 30% and 5% PO. This necessarily limited new production.
The strategy of small steps
The Postal Bank does not hide it: it does provide "a gradual entry in the market." It must be said that the bank does not have jurisdiction over this area. A solution would involve Dexia to the joint venture, but Philippe Wahl opposed it, arguing that he had drawn a line under the past.If "tools and know-how" will be taken, much remains, at this stage in DCL, which will continue to do business consulting and other brokerage insurance: paying as many services that are generally obtained when The bank, first granted a loan, often less profitable. In other words, the relationship promises to be complicated.
The strategy of small steps of the Post Bank suggests some difficult years for local governments. While their financial needs are increasing, the supply of credit is reduced to a trickle. The difficulties of Dexia added in effect to the decision of Savings and Credit Agricole others to desert, from mid-2011, this market is too expensive in terms of regulatory ratios.The Deposit has set up an emergency budget of 3 billion euros, when experts estimate that 7 billion unmet needs. Next year it will be even more.
The big aerospace contracts at arm's length support the French foreign trade. These two sectors have advanced temporarily to France to reduce its trade deficit by 32% to -4.967 billion euros, against -6.363 billion in July, according to Customs figures published on Friday.
"Deficit reduction is entirely due to the transport sector," stressed the customs in a statement. Remains that over the last twelve months, the gap between imports and exports widened to 66.8 billion euros, against 51.5 billion for 2010.
Exports reached on August 37.42 billion euros, up 2.9% at three months. Airbus sales have been strong high for the month of the year, thanks to the delivery of three Airbus A380 super jumbo guaranteed fast personal loans.In addition, France has delivered two satellites, one in China (112 million) and the other in the United States (130 million). The performance of aerospace and aeronautics, powered shots of large contracts, are very volatile from one month to another.
The rest of the industry has pretty well taken for export, Customs noted "particularly strong for industrial machinery and electrical equipment, industrial exports are fixed for the chemicals."
Imports in turn was driven by the manufacturing industry (chemicals, rubber, plastics, industrial machinery, etc.).. "Imports are also rising, particularly since the European Union (Ireland, Germany, UK and Netherlands), 'the Customs.
The speech will be delivered to a very limited audience, but it will be heard by the entire financial world. The head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, will speak on Friday afternoon (French time) to his counterparts at the traditional central bankers in Jackson Hole Symposium, Wyoming.
While the U.S. economy slows dangerously, investors expect a tough response from the Fed. But they may be disappointed because, faced with two problems, the central bank runs out of ammunition.
Misdiagnosis
First, Ben Bernanke erred in economic diagnosis. He underestimated his own admission, the low growth in the first half and was counting on a rebound in demand in the second, which for now does not materialize.Problem with its main policy rate at zero since December 2008, the Fed has little room to revive again the supply of credit. Some members of the Monetary Committee refuses to go further. Among the reluctant, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed. It is estimated that on August 9 promises to continue until mid-2013 interest rates unusually low, the Fed made a mistake: the promise deters businesses and individuals to borrow quickly as they know that the rates are not nearly up cash advance america.
So what can Ben Bernanke promised? The resumption of purchases of long-term bonds the Treasury is the preferred option by the markets. But given the high level of inflation, the method is risky.In addition, low interest rates leaves little hope that this new "quantitative easing" has a significant effect on credit supply.
Ben Bernanke should focus on technical measures. The Fed could cut the compensation of bank reserves. It would be a way to push banks to lend rather than storing their cash with her. The second measure seeks to change more or less gradually the composition of its balance sheet, which reached 2.7 trillion dollars. To maintain long-term rates as low as possible, the Fed may decide to increase the proportion of its balance sheet invested in long-term securities, while reducing the one placed in short-term securities. The decline in long rates will encourage companies and individuals to refinance their debts and support the real estate.
Wall Street still frozen in the red. At midday, the Dow Jones unscrewed from 3.34% to 10,865 points, the Nasdaq 2.73% to loose 2415 points and the S & P lost 2.97% to 1138 points. As in Europe, signs of nervousness are palpable the day after a session rebound. The volume of trade is still very well fleshed out and heightened volatility. "At this stage, investors dizzy," says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services.
On Wednesday, Greece worried again. The country plans to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors. As the European markets, the banking sector is particularly attacked the image of Bank of America (-9.87%), Citigroup (-8.49%), Goldman Sachs (-7.76%), Morgan Stanley ( -7.52%), Wells Fargo (-6.17%) and JP Morgan Chase (-6.13%).
In addition, rumors of degradation of the note of the French debt by a rating agency revived fears about the health of the euro area. "These rumors are totally unfounded and the three agencies Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's have confirmed that there was no risk of degradation," it was stated in the entourage of the Minister of Finance, Baroin.
Fear of a recession
In addition, operators are even very concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Yesterday, the world stock markets have overreacted, and positive against all odds, to about the Fed. This has indeed ensured that it would maintain its rates at a historical low, and until mid-2013 to support the economy. Its leaders also promised various stimulus, but without specifying its content. It will probably wait until his final release in late August.On the merits, however, the Fed has painted a disturbing report from the world's largest economy. Growth, pointing in particular the U.S. central bank, is growing at an annual rate of less than 1% in the first half, where the institution expected, earlier this year, more than 3%.
The market was undergoing "fears about the economy, perhaps headed toward a new recession, and lingering concerns about the debt problems of the euro area," said Peter Cardillo, Rockwell Global Capital.
In contrast, oil prices were up sharply on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). A barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery finished at 82.89 dollars, up 3.59 dollars compared to the previous day. Oil stocks have fallen dramatically and unexpectedly last week in the U.S., according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Energy.Crude inventories fell 5.2 million barrels to 349.8 million barrels in the week ended August 5. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast the contrary, an increase of 1.1 million barrels.
Note that the budget deficit of the United States continued to fall in July for the fourth consecutive month according to figures released Wednesday by the Treasury Department.The deficit stood at 129.4 billion dollars for the tenth month of the fiscal year 2010-2011, which began October 1, or 22% less than in July 2010, the ministry said.
Disney abused despite good results
On the business side, Cisco (-1.68% to 13.82 dollars) will unveil its results later this evening the fourth quarter, along with News Corp (-5.36% to 13.77 dollars).
Disney (-12.72% to 30.29 dollars) falls after the media group has yet announced quarterly results better than expected thanks to strong advertising revenue on its cable networks.
The title of U.S. internet group AOL (-8.85% to 10.20 dollars) has lost over a quarter of its value on Tuesday at the New York Stock Exchange after the release of disappointing quarterly earnings and lower forecasts. The stock has dropped 25.75% against the current of a market up sharply.The action even reached 10.36 dollars during the session, the lowest price ever since the split with Time Warner in 2009.
Facebook on Tuesday launched a new application for mobile phones iPhone (Apple) and those equipped with the Android operating system (Google) to send messages to his "friends" on social networking, but also to other contacts. Called "Messenger", the application can send both text messages (SMS) and email.
Apple (-1.11% to 369.85 dollars) briefly delighted yesterday to ExxonMobil, its position as the first market capitalization.
Twenty products absent from the shelves of the pharmacy on the first day of the week. This is the situation that a small pharmacy owner in the fifteenth arrondissement of Paris, a few days of the summer closure of his pharmacy. An almost normal, and shared by many of his colleagues. These problems of supply disruptions, the pharmaceutical companies (LEEM) have also identified a few months. Front-line antiretroviral drugs (treatments against AIDS), insulin, or steroids. In some small pharmacies, such as supply disruptions related antidepressants and vaccines.
"The mountain of pharmacies in these areas have alerted us, says we in the trade association of the drug industry, because in general, breaks off and still found the result of bad weather, or social movements. " This was not necessarily the case in recent months."For some specific drugs, including antiretrovirals, there is a significant difference between the amounts made available to the distribution channel for businesses, and far below the number of units issued by the city pharmacies" confirms the organization.
In this case, then those products which go missing? According to Leem, some drugs would be captured by "short liners," the new intermediate appeared recently (4-5 years), whose intervention "aims to capture the margins, and do not have to Unlike the traditional players, a culture of health professionals ", warns Leem.And the controversy grew about the possible disruptive effect that these new players would result in the drug market.
Introduction of quotas
These new entrants are currently only 2.5% of the market for thirty entities in competition with wholesale distributors, who are the traditional intermediaries between laboratories and the approximately 23,000 French owners of pharmacies. "This is especially true for drugs produced and distributed in small quantities, such as antiretroviral (ARV) where their intervention significantly affects the fluidity of the market, says Emmanuel Déchin, general secretary of the Chambre Syndicale in the pharmaceutical distribution (CSRP) , which comprises seven members, representing 97% of the French market."We know that none of these ARV box which is sold is intended for the French market.".
In addition, since the early 2000s in France, every distribution is given by pharmaceutical companies, quotas based on national market share. "We understand the concern of an economic actor such as a laboratory to better control the flow of production, Emmanuel Déchin tempers. But it also induces more rigid and can penalize us and expose us to break. " Today, about 600 drugs on the 5300 allowed the French market are subject to these quotas. And strong demand in France for some products, lead to regular stock-outs on nearly 270 specialties, according to the Union of pharmacists (USPO) payday loan lenders.
Also advancing to explain that some pharmaceutical giants, if dispatchers do not hesitate to reserve a portion of their stocks of the more "lucrative". Indeed, patented products still sell for an average of three to five times more expensive in the U.S. than in France. And even within the European Union, large disparities persist. On average, the products can be sold 20% more expensive in Germany than in France, while in Spain, prices are generally lower than 10%. "I do not honestly believe that a laboratory, despite its economic imperatives, can do this type of arbitrage to the detriment of the health of patients' tempers Déchin Emmanuel.
The health minister is prepared to legislate
For his part, and face these charges, the Health Minister Xavier Bertrand was firm: "These systems are known to parallel importation, but I do not want that.What is planned for France should be consumed in France, "he said on Europe 1 radio on Tuesday. He was prepared to legislate if laboratories and wholesalers did not meet their obligations, "or you meet your quota, or I will oblige with a new text, he said. It's a shame to come here but I will not hesitate one second to do so. "
Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, some small pharmacists have no choice but to defeat the usual, explains that another pharmacist in a small pharmacy (800,000 euros of annual turnover): "either we manage with co-major pharmacies that are generally better off than us, or we go directly to the laboratory control. But this can only be temporary, because of course we pay more than the wholesaler! ".For two or three years, the pharmacist admitted being increasingly confronted with such situations, including antiretrovirals and cancer. Clearly, treatments that can not wait. Troubleshooting
Faced with this shortage, Leem and the French Agency for Safety of Health Products (AFSSAPS) have set up emergency solutions (stocks troubleshooting, short circuit …) and special issues to avoid the maximum out-of treatment for patients. A temporary workaround, which can not do without an in-depth study of the new challenges of the French system of drug distribution. What the Department of Competition and Fraud (DGCCRF) seems to be addressing.
In turn, dispatchers did not call for the abolition of quotas, nor to that of intra-EU trade, but felt that the resolution of this issue "very complex" pass through "pragmatism and a sense of responsibility on the part of all actors in the chain, given the economic pressure to which they are subjected. "
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While Apple has announced record results, its rival Nokia, struggling for three years, falls into the red for the second time in its history. The Finnish manufacturer has issued Thursday a net loss of 368 million euros for the second quarter 2011, against a profit of 227 million euros a year earlier. This is the second negative result after the historic loss for the third quarter of 2009.
Nokia, which has an alliance with the U.S. Microsoft to launch phones to counteract the rapid expansion of the Apple iPhone and Android smartphones system (Google), is in turmoil trying to trace the slope.The giant had announced in April the elimination of 4,000 jobs and the outsourcing of another 3,000 due to the phasing out of its own operating system Symbian for the benefit of the Microsoft Windows Phone.
"The difficulties we face in our strategic transformation have arisen more than we expected in the second quarter of 2011," said Nokia CEO Stephen Elop. "But I think our actions to limit the impact of these difficulties began to show positive effects on the health of our business.In addition, we make better progress than expected to achieve our strategic objectives, "he said payday advance low fees.
Job cuts
The Canadian leader, who came to Microsoft last September to address Nokia, however, indicates that "competitive pressure" that is currently experiencing will continue.
In the second quarter, Nokia posted a further decline in sales of 7% to 9.28 billion euros. If he remains world number one by volume, the number of phones it sold plunged 20% to 88.5 million units, against 111 million a year earlier.Its joint venture with Siemens, the supplier Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN), has negatively affected the result with an operating loss of 111 million euros.
In May, Nokia warned that its second quarter results were worse than expected and now that he would not give targets for the full year. The group, which employed the end of June 138,800 people (75,000 at Nokia Siemens), said yesterday that it will "accelerate" its savings plan through "several sources", including job losses and departures replaced.
Thursday late afternoon, the action gained 1.27% to 4.14 euros, but fell below the euro for four mid-July, it operates at its lowest level since 1997.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could not pick a worse day to name its new CEO. While the Greek Parliament is preparing to accept or reject the austerity plan imposed on the country, Greece went on strike for 48 hours. "We are on the verge of seeing someone who is very well supported. It is very important because this institution is facing many challenges. " Treasury Secretary of the United States Timothy Geithner does not believe so to speak.
Greek debt crisis
First pressing issue, the debt of Greece. Despite a support plan of 110 billion euros, which should be accompanied by another rescue in the same amount, the country can not get out of the crisis. The new CEO will have to prove to the Member States that the country can recover from the economic crisis and budget where it sank."In Greece, there is no debate, said Marc Fiorentino, president of Euroland Finance. The restructuring is inevitable. It remains to know when the plan will be implemented. Germany is to decide. The IMF has a role of 'follower'. " For now, financial markets seem to believe in a positive vote of the Greek Parliament and even the backup plan for Europe if it fails.
Marc Fiorentino, the IMF's main task will be to prevent the problems of Spain and Italy by austerity. Is not that what has already been done for Greece? "Yes, but Spain is more credible than Greece. The scope of the IMF will be more important. "
Consequences of the "Arab Spring"
The other issue facing the new flagship is the Director of revolts followed in the Arab world.Member States have asked the IMF to pay "special attention" to the economic impact of these revolutions. . Among the Arab countries, Egypt. After asking at the beginning of June the IMF prepared a three to four billion euros, the country has finally given up the aid. "This decision is political, says Marc Fiorentino. The government can not 'sell' five years of rigor as the country lives in a dream after having 'won' the revolution. The IMF should adopt a more discourse-oriented investment and less to the rigor. " With the World Bank, the Fund must thus coordinate international financial assistance for Egypt, Tunisia and other countries possible. The country may need 10 to $ 12 billion by June 2012.
Solving the "war of exchange rates"
The IMF should review in the fall as part of its surveillance of exchange rates, that does not meet many people. The new CEO will have to find difficult compromises between China, which wishes to conduct its exchange rate policy as it sees fit, and those who want the Fund crack down against a large Member State with a currency significantly undervalued. "I do not believe in the currency war is permanent. This will be more difficult than Christine Lagarde owes much to China. "
Keep its promises to China
If Christine Lagarde was appointed patron of the International Monetary Fund, it is indeed in large part to China, which has formalized its support Monday for the future ex-finance minister. Until then, the country had always refused to speak publicly on the subject.While emerging countries vied for the position, arguing that they were promised in the appointment of Dominique Strauss-Kahn in 2007, they finally resigned to make way for a European to better manage the debt crisis in the euro area. Probably not without a negotiated compensation. "Christine Lagarde had to make concessions vis-à-vis emerging markets and particularly vis-à-vis China, says Marc Fiorentino. She had no choice. " She has promised to increase the voting rights with the IMF of 6.19% to 6.4% and "include Chinese representatives." Vice-president of the institution and may return to Beijing.
It is not clear that Europe and the United States this agreement are a very good eye. The margins of maneuver Christine Lagarde did not they could be reduced? "She has a great culture of consensus and coordinate economic zones knows them.She certainly has a European profile but is also open to the Anglo-Saxon world, "says Marc Fiorentino.
With the crisis and declining purchasing power, one might think that the French would focus on the lowest prices, even if only buy foreign products cheaper. It is not. According to a study by the Research Center for the Study and Observation of Living Conditions (Credoc), nearly two in three French (64%) say they are willing to pay more for locally produced industrial goods, rather and away from Europe.
Despite the absence of type on the goods consumed (cars, food, etc.), the survey published echoes of "a profound change of attitude": "Five years ago, only 44% of respondents said they were willing to pay that surcharge, "says the document. Action for Fanette, who led the study, the French are "searching for meaning" in their consumption.Clearly, they are aware of the impact of their purchases on the industrial fabric. And local procurement, plus a recognition of "the quality of national expertise," would be a way to "show support to employees and companies most exposed to the crisis."
Low incomes also concerned
For a year before the study, the year 2009 was marked by numerous layoffs. Particularly affected, the industry lost 170,000 jobs during the height of the crisis, according to figures from INSEE. "During the crisis, when people or their relatives lose their jobs or face poverty, they are more careful about how they eat," Analysis Fanette Appeals. According to her, even if logically high incomes are most likely to pay any additional cost of "Made in France", the low-income households are not left behind."The majority of those who earn less than 900 euros per month is estimated to do the same," argues the specialist.
In detail, this attention to the origin of goods "is more pronounced among the elderly," says the study, since approximately 70% of those over age 60 say they are willing to pay more for a good French. But "this attitude is spreading in recent years among 25-60 years, especially among the assets, whether officers, employees or workers."
Buy local: an activist
In contrast, less than 25 years "exception." Their preference for "Made in France" has "increased somewhat since 2005," says the survey. Even "if they focus more than before European products."According to the survey, young people are "more attached to Europe" than their elders, "with a sense of belonging to a larger geographic area" than France.
Thus, preferred the "Made in France" in difficult times resembles a militant act. In this case, attention to product origin sounds like a new message to the government against industrial decline of France.
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