Schools, colleges, high schools, universities, governments and businesses will be closed ultramajorité Monday. Not because of a strike call would be strongly followed, but due to the National Solidarity Day, established in 2004 – through the elimination of the holiday falling on Whit Monday – by Jean-Pierre Raffarin.
The working day "offered" by the employees was instituted after the heatwave of summer 2003, which caused the deaths of 15,000 elderly and highlighted the extreme isolation of some people. Employers were free to set the terms of agreement by company or branch.The idea is to offset a new tax of 0.3% on the payroll who also hit the capital income and wealth.
Most of the time, a day of paid leave or RTT was sacrificed in exchange for work on Whit Monday.Some companies might choose to "dicked" day of extra work and free: in two half days without a student in Education or seven hours spread over the year at the station.
13 billion in seven years
Before the general disorganization – nobody knew when the Day of Solidarity was falling – and many recriminations trade unions, associations or religious, the Fillon government decided in 2008 to remake the Whit Monday public holiday and therefore not working no fax payday loan.
Since its inception seven years ago, the Day of Solidarity has reported 13 billion collected from public and private employers by the National Solidarity Fund for Autonomy.The annual levy – which will yield 2.31 billion in 2011 – is intended to cover devices cons dependency: Standard ABS and PCH allowances, retirement homes and special schools … It has 60% elderly and 40% for people disabilities.
To finance the care of elderly dependency, it is suggested to establish a new day of solidarity that would yield, according to Roselyne Bachelot, 2 billion more. Others still offer to extend the base's contribution to the professions and retirees who are currently excluded.
By September 2007, Francois Fillon said "being at the head of a State which is in bankruptcy." More than ever today. At the end of 2010, the government's balance sheet, liabilities exceeded assets (real estate, leases, equities, etc..) From 757 billion euros. In other words, even selling all his possessions, the state could not repay its debts. So says the report of the Court of Auditors on implementation of 2010 budget, released Wednesday.
The slippage of the state debt (again, up 81 billion last year) is only a reflection of accumulation, year after year of deficits.Since the crisis, the government deficit has increased fourfold, from 34.7 billion in 2007 to 148,800,000,000 in 2010.
Certainly, last year was marked by exceptional costs: the future investments (34.6 billion), aid to Greece (4.4 billion) stimulus plan (6.8 billion) and reform of business tax (7.7 billion). Nevertheless, even eliminating these effects, the deficit is approaching $ 100 billion.
Evidence that the situation is fundamentally unbalanced, in 2010, 18.5% of current expenditures of the state have been financed by borrowing, according to the Court. And Didier Migaud, its first president, was listed Wednesday its' reasons for concern "to the Finance Committee of the Assembly. Despite economic recovery, "the spontaneous growth of tax revenues has remained limited (8.6 billion)," he said.In addition, tax loopholes have, as a trend, yet increased by 2.5 billion. Finally, expenditures are not controlled, according to the Court. The government says it has held its goal to achieve, excluding the effect of inflation, spending "normal" state (the so-called "sub standard"). But, according to Didier Migaud, "some steps have been excluded from the calculation of how questionable the norm. By integrating these elements, spending rose 0.7%.
Cost of business tax reform
Another sticking point: the reform of business tax. The Court finds that because of "deficiencies of the information system", having weighed the burden on the state in 2010 is "uncertain." But the amounts involved are substantial (7.7 billion for the Court, 7.3 billion announced in December by Bercy).This item has arrested members who, while recognizing the specificities of the first year, fear that the reform cost then more than 4.7 billion per year under Bercy.
Information systems of the state are also subject to a reserve certification from the Court. With six points, as the assets of the Department of Defense or the real estate. Apart from these reservations (fewer than nine of 2009), the Court finds the state accounts for 2010 as scheduled, giving a true and fair view ". France is, with the United Kingdom or the United States, one of the few countries where an independent organization certifies the accounts of the state. A guarantee of reliability important now.
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In fifty years, two times more dependent elderly. This is the perspective that traces the working group on "demographic and financial issues, set up by Roselyne Bachelot to prepare the reform of addiction. Projected that this group, led by Jean-Michel Charpin, study Tuesday afternoon, holding it in effect a "middle scenario" leading to rise from 1.15 million addicts in 2010 to 2.3 million in 2060 (being considered as dependent persons entitled to the allowance APA, according to current criteria for the award).
Enrollment growth would be 2% per annum by 2017-2020, then 1.1% per year until 2030 (period when the cohorts born in 1930 will reach the age of dependency), then 2% between 2030 and 2045 (the baby-boomers) and 0.6% per year thereafter.These figures are higher than the latest official forecast, prepared in 2005 by the Center for Strategic Analysis. "Three factors explain the discrepancy, details Roselyne Bachelot. First, the start of the APA faster than expected. Then, the latest forecast by INSEE, which increased the proposed number of seniors. "In half a century, France has 5.4 million over 85 years. "Finally, it was betting up to that every year of life expectancy gained would be a healthy year, says the Minister of Solidarity. It seems that this traditional view is rather trite and does not hold in recent years. "
This scenario, so far "predominant" is now considered "optimistic."However, the opposite idea (gains in life expectancy would result in full by a lengthening of the duration dependence) is not in the heart of the simulations of the working group, although it is mentioned in a "pessimistic scenario" payday loans. The main scenario is based on the assumption that the proportion of dependence-free life expectancy to 65 years in total life expectancy at age 65, will remain stable. Currently, life expectancy at age 65 is 22.5 years for women, 19.1 years without dependence (85%). It would increase to 27.6 years in 2060, including 23.4 years without dependence, 4.9 years gained healthy (85%). And, therefore, 0.8 year older in a state of dependency.For men, life expectancy at 65 years falling from 18.1 years currently, with 16.7 years without dependence (92%), of which 21.7 years to 23.6 years without dependence.
Evaluate the probabilities
"While some questioned the usefulness of new projections or accused the President of the Republic of catastrophism, nobody can say" everything is going very well, Madame la Marquise,''said Roselyne Bachelot. We have a scenario in which the political decision to meet. "The minister nevertheless admits:" No one can certify that these assumptions will be realized fifty years.Maybe we'll have a vaccine against Alzheimer's! But the horizon of political decision, it is ten years and, unfortunately, we are almost certain that there will be no vaccine by then. "
Work will continue over the coming weeks, especially to better assess the probability and consequences of extreme scenarios that lead to this point a very wide range, from 1.85 to 3.15 million addicts in 2060.
The Apple boss has booked a nice surprise to his fans. When he was announced to be on sick leave for six months, and rumors that the dying announced, Steve Jobs is onstage drama of San Francisco (California, western United States). Acclaimed, he then introduced the second version of the iPad tablet computer. The tablet computer keeps the same price, between 499 and 829 dollars (between 359 and 597 euros) depending on version. The iPad will be sold to two metastable United from 11 March and 26 other countries, including France, Canada, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Japan, from March 25 business card design.
Despite his illness, Steve Jobs, who appeared thin, has not lost his sense of humor and vitality. "Almost 15 million iPads sold in nine months in 2010. It's more than any tablet PCs ever sold, "he quips."It's been quite some time that we worked on it and I did not want to miss a great day," said Steve Jobs. He still survived pancreatic cancer in 2004 and a liver transplant in 2009.
Steve Jobs introduced the second version of the iPad.
The King of results announcements of companies taking a break. So, what are the economic indicators that replicate the hand and should facilitate the meeting this Friday. After opening slightly higher, the CAC 40 decreased again: the index in Paris lost 0.18% to 4144.78 points.
At the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE-100 advance from 0.15% to 6097.37 points. Exchange and the Frankfurt the Dax gained 0.22% to 7422.11 points.
The industrial morale slightly lower
On the macroeconomic front, industrial morale dipped slightly in February, down two points from the previous month, with 106 points, Insee said Friday.It remains above its long-term average (100 points).
The business climate in manufacturing industry in France worsened slightly, according to the monthly business survey released Friday by INSEE.
Once is not custom, no economic statistics are expected in the United States. However, the president of the Central Bank, Ben Bernanke, will participate in the G20 ministerial held in Paris, which will be attended by Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the twenty richest countries in the world. Bernanke will talk about "global imbalances and financial stability" (14 hours).
On the currency markets, the euro fell slightly against the dollar at 1.3590 dollar.
Lafarge in line with expectations
Lafarge 2.58% to 47.18 euros – the largest increase CAC 40
Lafarge said Friday anticipate a rebound between 3% and 6% (cons -1% to +3% expected in 2010) of cement demand in 2011 after a 2010 financial year marked by overall results online. The world's leading cement has published results in line with expectations.
Bull: 6.09% to 3.83 euros
Bull announces this morning a net profit of 6.5 million euros in 2010, earnings increased fourfold over the previous year, when it reached 1.4 million euros.
Bouygues: 1.04% at 33.85 euros
A consortium led by Bouygues has been chosen by the state to build the future "at the Pentagon French" on the site Balard, in south-west of Paris, as Le Figaro said Thursday. Information confirmed by the MoD in a statement.
The consortium led by Bouygues includes Thales (-0.57% to 27.26 euros) for computing, Sodexo (1.49% to 50.74 euros) for services, Dalkia Energy and FIDEPPP – bringing together the Savings and Natixis (+0.15% to 4.14 euros) – and SEIEF as financial investors.
Eutelsat: -1.54% to 28.44 euros
Eutelsat has released interim results that put it on track to exceed its targets for 2010-2011.
Societe Generale: +0.25% to 52.17 euros, BNP Paribas: -0.68% to 58, 37 Euro
The Government of Côte d'Ivoire has declared Thursday the nationalization of local subsidiary of Societe Generale and BNP Paribas have suspended their activities, including the two French institutions.
France Telecom: 0.68% to 16.3 euros
Orange filed a complaint against Bouygues Telecom before the Commercial Court of Paris, following the January 1 bug that caused an increase in involuntary SMS.Orange seeking millions of euros in damages.
Nearly eight million shares traded Archos, the title takes off
Peugeot: -0.25% to 29.70 euros
Workers and employees of Peugeot should be increased by 1.7% with a minimum of 34 euros, from 1 March.
Air France-KLM: 0.16% to 12.47 euros
According to the report of the court in Bobigny, including Le Figaro has obtained a copy, the Central Works Council of Air France needs of 20.5 million to continue its activity in 2011 and avoid defaulting .
Archos: 3.50% to 7.98 euros
Archos, which will release its quarterly and annual results after market close on February 22, jumped over 34% to 7.71 euros on Thursday on the financial markets. Nearly eight million shares, or approximately one third of the capital of Apple competitor on the shelves, were exchanged.
The new week begins in the red for the major Asian stock markets. Investors are following the trend-driven American and European markets. While Wall Street ended lower on Friday as it had not been recorded since mid-November, stock markets in Europe all let loose about 1%. At issue: the rising tension in Egypt that worries investors. The anti-government protests have killed at least 125 dead and thousands injured for almost a week.
On Monday, the Japanese Nikkei sets the tone. The key index in Tokyo dropped 1.18% to close at 10,237.92 points. The broader Topix index of all titles of the first table has in turn yielded 1.04% to 910.08 points.
Japan announced today that it would send aircraft chartered to evacuate its nationals from Egypt.Some 500 Japanese nationals were stranded at the airport in the Egyptian capital because of the events. Moreover, Japanese companies doing business in Egypt, like Nissan, Toyota and Panasonic, have reduced their activities on site and asked their employees to avoid travel in this country.
This information occupy the minds of investors who set aside the announcement of a 3.1% increase in industrial production in Japan in December on a month, its second consecutive monthly increase.It increases by 15.9% over the whole of 2010, according to preliminary data released Monday by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).
Please note, this Monday, the Japanese industrial conglomerate Toshiba has announced a net profit of 40 no teletrack payday loan.2 billion yen (363 million euros) for the first nine months of 2010-2011, against a loss last year, thanks the NAND flash memory, and has significantly increased its annual targets. In addition, the automaker Honda said it had more than doubled its net profit for the first nine months of 2010/11, to 489.5 billion yen (4.45 billion euros), despite a drop in profits third quarter and raised its annual profit forecasts.All Nippon Airways (ANA), it always provides for an annual net profit of 6 billion yen.
The rest of the region into negative territory
In China, markets progressing piecemeal. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng dropped 1.12% at 23,352 points while in Shanghai, the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.04% to 27,814 points. According to brokers, this increase reflected gains in gold and oil producers.
The Korean KOSDAQ lost 0.86%, the S & P Australian loose 0.44%, and the Indian Sensex was down 1.02%.
The increased gross
Only one to benefit from the troubles in Egypt, oil up that appears Monday in electronic trading in Asia. The market fears of disruptions in the transport of oil via the Suez Canal, said analysts.
In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for March delivery gained 37 cents to 89.71 dollars.Of Brent North Sea with identical maturity appreciating by 18 cents to 99.60 dollars.
The U.S. economy has not ended the year 2010 as well as expected. Growth was posted at 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to preliminary official figures released Friday. The recovery of activity accelerated after a rise of 2.6% in the third quarter. But analysts were disappointed: they had forecast 3.5% growth.
Restarting the United States after the worst crisis since the 30s, however, is confirmed. The world's largest economy may ultimately show growth of 2.9% over the whole of 2010, after a decline in activity of 2.6% in 2009.
Changing engines
Details of the growth of the last three months of 2010 give reason to rejoice. Finite growth boosted by the recovery in business inventories, the effect necessarily temporary. Consumption and investment have taken over both rising by 4.4%.Above all, the actual sales to individuals jumped 7.1%, economists welcome Societe Generale, after a tentative 0.9% the previous quarter.
Moreover, "the 21.6% increase in sales of durable goods (such as automotive, Ed) betrays the return of U credit reports free.S. confidence in recovery, despite a high unemployment rate," Inna decrypts Mufteeva, economist at Natixis . Indicating a shy thinning on the property market, residential investment also stopped its fall (-27.3% in the third quarter) with a rebound of 3.4%.
State spending sluggish
Pleasant surprise also, international trade has recorded its largest contribution to growth since 1980 (+3.8 percentage points). Explanation: exports rose by 8.5% over the period while imports fell by 13.6%.In contrast, government spending, almost sluggish (+0.2%) and the end of the replenishment of stocks by companies, have dampened activity.
"The acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter and its new membership offer hope of a more sustainable economic recovery in 2011, enough to reduce unemployment, trusts Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. "The United States this year will be one of the most dynamic economies of developed countries."
Jan
19
After a meeting of European finance ministers two days, the European commissioner for financial services on Tuesday urged the banking sector to exercise restraint and responsibility in awarding bonuses.
Michel Barnier has said that "the current situation where it takes work to many people, the banks have a duty of responsibility, morality and ethics as well." He warned that it "would ensure a rigorous process of the correct application of rules" in place in Europe and would consider "whether that is enough."
His appeal comes at a time when major European banks will disclose the amount they intend to pay bonuses under the year 2010 online cash advance. Goldman Sachs is preparing to pay $ 15 billion bonus to all its 35,000 employees.JP Morgan has distributed no less than $ 10 billion to the bankers.
The issue is particularly sensitive since the crisis began. The skirmish between Barclays Bank and the British government last week demonstrates the difficulty policy to enforce the rules on pay. France, which chairs the G20 group of major industrialized and emerging countries, however, calls for a limitation of such remuneration worldwide.
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"The world economy is currently experiencing an earthquake." Economists at HSBC does not speak of the crisis, but the profound disruption that should take place by 2050. Namely the irresistible rise of large emerging countries, China and India in mind.
Two reports have been published in recent days on the subject. HSBC and, secondly, the consultancy and audit PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC). The latter predicts that, together, the seven main emerging economies (China, Russia, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey) by 2020 will exceed the group of G7 economies (U.S., Japan, Germany, United Kingdom France, Italy and Canada). And this, by measuring the wealth created in purchasing power parity, that is to say if the exchange rates of currencies perfectly reflected living standards.By simply comparing gross domestic products (GDP), developing countries will exceed the developed countries by 2032, according to PwC.
Wealth multiplied by three
Economists at the British bank HSBC in a note published in early January, reached the same conclusions, a few decades by: in 2050, 19 of the 30 largest world economies are emerging. Both studies agree perfectly on one point: the U.S. will lose their top spot in favor of China. India, HSBC said, heels close. In total, the wealth produced in the world will be multiplied by three.
France, for its part, is expected to fall from 8th to 11th place, behind Mexico and Brazil, according to PwC."The dominance of China in particular implies a return to the historical situation that existed before the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries," said Bernard Gainnier, development manager at PwC payday loan. "This revolution was originally from a transfer of economic power from Asia to Europe and the United States."
At the source of these changes to come next forty years: a bustling population, coupled with better education and democratization of the key emerging markets, economists at HSBC list. Moreover, "the United States and Great Britain, with the best prospects for population, will succeed with some success to maintain their rank, they are."However, the small but wealthy European countries aging, such as Switzerland, the Netherlands and Sweden, will drop in the rankings."
"The Economics of Climate"
Military or commercial wars, return of protectionism, epidemics … The study authors, from HSBC and PwC, acknowledge that their predictions are surrounded by uncertainties. The biggest challenge? The ecological balance and exploiting resources increasingly scarce. In this context, "the economics of climate should play a role as important as that knowledge during the past century," say analysts at HSBC.
"In 2050, the economic earthquake will do at its beginning, also warn them."Although increased sevenfold in 40 years, living standards of a Chinese only account for 32% of that of an American." The growth potential will remain substantial.
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Downward adjustment. INSEE revised its growth figures for the second and French third quarter below what it had previously measured. Between April and June, the economy grew by 0.6% against 0.7% estimated earlier, and 0.3% between July and September, against 0.4%. The downward revision for the third quarter results "including the revision of indicators of business services and public works (…) and indicators of personal services," noted INSEE.
In the third quarter, "domestic demand (…) again contributes positively to growth in gross domestic product (GDP) this quarter," noted INSEE online payday advance. Consumer spending has accelerated over the period, at +0.5% against 0.3% over the previous three months. In contrast, business investment grew more slowly (+0.5% after +0.9%).
Household disposable income as calculated by INSEE has grown faster than the second quarter at +0.9% against +0.8% previously. An evolution that can record a slight acceleration in purchasing power (+0.7%).
The Bank of France expects a growth of 0.6% in the fourth quarter. Over the full year 2010, the French GDP to grow by 1.6%, according to Insee.